Heterogeneous Expectations in Asset Pricing

Heterogeneous Expectations in Asset Pricing
Author: Carl Chiarella
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper empirically estimates a heterogeneous agents model using S&P 500 data. While previous studies on heterogeneous agents models typically resort to simulation techniques, our empirical results indicate that the market is populated with fundamentalists, chartists, and noise traders. In addition, agents switch between these groups conditional on their previous performance. As a result, the model is capable of explaining the inflation and deflation of bubbles. Finally, it is reported that the model can explain the stylized facts of financial market such as heavy tails and volatility clustering.

Diverse Risk Preferences and Heterogeneous Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model

Diverse Risk Preferences and Heterogeneous Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model
Author: Thomas Gomez
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

We propose a heuristic switching model of an asset market where the agents' choice of heuristic is consistent with their individual risk aversion. They choose between a fundamentalist and a trend-following rule to form expectations about the price of a risky asset. Given their risk aversion, agents make a deterministic trade-off between mean and variance both in choosing a forecasting heuristic and determining the number of risky assets to buy. Heterogeneous risk preferences can lead to diverse choices of heuristic. Using empirical estimates for the distribution of risk aversion, simulations show that the resulting time-varying heterogeneity of expectations can give rise to chaotic dynamics: irregular booms and busts in the asset price without exogenous shocks. Small, stochastic price shocks lead to larger asset price bubbles, and can make stable solutions explosive. We prove that a representative agent cannot capture our model.

Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Expectations

Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Expectations
Author: Florian Heitger
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

Based on a classical financial market model different model variants known from the literature are discussed and analyzed, each focussing on modeling financial markets as a nonlinear dynamic system by introducing the formation of (heterogeneous) beliefs about future asset prices into the model framework. Furthermore, a market model under a market maker scenario is proposed which brings these types of financial market models to a more consistent and more realistic model structure. The proposed market model explicitly takes into account the risky-asset supply side. This extension in the model structure allows to model the risk premium demanded by the market participants for taking market risk, which appears to be endogenously driven by the market over time. The resulting dynamics of asset price and agents' wealth is analyzed within a chartist-fundamentalist framework. Within this model framework it becomes possible to characterize the market equilibria and the other kinds of asymptotic behavior in terms of the long-run evolution of wealth proportions and risky-asset returns. Moreover it is shown to which extent those heterogeneous expectations in the agent-based market model can explain observed fluctuations in real financial markets and lead to the emergence of complicated dynamics of growing asset price paths.

Equilibrium Theory in Infinite Dimensional Spaces

Equilibrium Theory in Infinite Dimensional Spaces
Author: M. Ali Khan
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 441
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3662070715

Apart from the underlying theme that all the contributions to this volume pertain to models set in an infinite dimensional space, they differ on many counts. Some were written in the early seventies while others are reports of ongoing research done especially with this volume in mind. Some are surveys of material that can, at least at this point in time, be deemed to have attained a satisfactory solution of the problem, while oth ers represent initial forays into an original and novel formulation. Some furnish alternative proofs of known, and by now, classical results, while others can be seen as groping towards and exploring formulations that have not yet reached a definitive form. The subject matter also has a wide leeway, ranging from solution concepts for economies to those for games and also including representation of preferences and discussion of purely mathematical problems, all within the rubric of choice variables belonging to an infinite dimensional space, interpreted as a commodity space or as a strategy space. Thus, this is a collective enterprise in a fairly wide sense of the term and one with the diversity of which we have interfered as little as possible. Our motivation for bringing all of this work under one set of covers was severalfold.

Expectation Formation in Financial Markets

Expectation Formation in Financial Markets
Author: Bart Frijns
Publisher:
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

We set up an endowment based asset pricing model in which agents have heterogeneous expectations about the future price level. Expectations are a function of fundamentals, trends, and sentiment. Agents are allowed to switch between expectation formation functions based on past performance as well as sentiment. Estimation results on the S&P500 reveal that there is heterogeneity between agents, with substantial switching between groups. We find that sentiment has a direct effect on expectations. Specifically, heterogeneity is increasing in sentiment, and sentiment reduces the frequency of switching between functions.

A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing

A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing
Author: Hersh Shefrin
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 636
Release: 2008-05-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080482244

Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition