Growth Debt And Sovereign Risk In A Small Open Economy
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Author | : Jagdeep S. Bhandari |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 51 |
Release | : 1989 |
Genre | : Debt relief |
ISBN | : |
This paper develops a macroeconomic model for a small, open, developing economy that borrows abroad - to study the dynamic interaction between debt and growth and the impacts of various policies and exogenous shocks on the rate of capital accumulation, the current account, and debt. Adjustment policies that increase productivity and efficient use of capital increase both growth and the stock of external debt - but the new level of debt may be sustainable in the long run.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 1989-06-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451969473 |
This paper constructs and analyzes an optimizing model of a highly-indebted small open economy. An important innovation in the model is the incorporation of sovereign risk through the specification of an upward-sloping foreign debt supply function. The model is used to examine the interaction between external debt and growth in response to various policies and exogenous disturbances. It is shown that structural policies intended to reduce the fiscal deficit or increase productivity can lead to tradeoffs in their effect on capital accumulation and the stock of debt.
Author | : Thordur Jonasson |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 133 |
Release | : 2018-04-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484350545 |
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Author | : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 2018-09-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484359623 |
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Author | : M. Ayhan Kose |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 403 |
Release | : 2021-03-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464815453 |
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author | : Juan Pablo Bohoslavsky |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 309 |
Release | : 2017-11-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1316510441 |
Contributes to a better understanding of the policy, economic, and legal options of countries struggling with debt problems.
Author | : Nicola Gennaioli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 53 |
Release | : 2014-07-08 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498391990 |
We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.
Author | : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 50 |
Release | : 2014-03-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484326547 |
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
Author | : Iva Petrova |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2010-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455252859 |
This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Author | : John Caramichael |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 34 |
Release | : 2021-07-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513579010 |
We isolate a U.S. dollar currency premium by comparing corporate bonds issued in the dollar and the euro by firms o utside t he U .S. a nd e uro a rea. We make s everal empirical observations that dissect the perceived advantage of borrowing in the dollar. First, while the dollar dominates global debt issuance, borrowing costs in the dollar are more expensive without a currency hedge and about the same with a currency hedge when compared to the euro. This observed parity in currency-hedged corporate borrowing stands in contrast to the persistent deviation from covered interest parity in risk-free rates. Second, we observe a dollar safety premium in relative hedged borrowing costs, found in the subset of bonds with high credit ratings and short maturities, attributes similar to those of safe sovereigns. Finally, we find that firms flexibly adjust the currency mix of their debt issuance depending on the relative borrowing cost between dollar and euro debt. In sum, the disproportionate demand for U.S. dollar debt is reflected in higher issuance volumes that drive up the currency hedged dollar borrowing costs such that at the margin they equate to euro borrowing costs.