Global Food Price Volatility And Spikes
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Author | : Matthias Kalkuhl |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 620 |
Release | : 2016-04-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319282018 |
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Author | : Jean-Paul Chavas |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 394 |
Release | : 2014-10-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 022612892X |
"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.
Author | : Joachim von Braun |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2012 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Since the 2007-08 food crisis, many thoughtful analyses have addressed the causes and impacts of high and volatile international food prices and proposed solutions to the crisis. These studies have covered global as well as local food price dynamics and policy reactions. The food price problem is, however, far-reaching, and its impacts are wide and interrelated. The price formation mechanism has become highly complex and dynamic. Policy actions are politically and economically sensitive. This situation calls for continuous and comprehensive assessments of the problem to provide timely and evidence-based knowledge for policy makers. This paper reviews existing evidence and theories and presents new thoughts and insights from analyses to enlighten the course of actions to be taken. Our review implies that the current body of literature concentrates on high food prices. Commodity price analysis should, however, differentiate between three types of price changes: trends, volatility, and spikes. While price trends are important in the long term, volatility and spikes are more important in the short to medium terms. Descriptive statistics indicate that all three price changes are increasing over time and show strong correlations among themselves. A rising medium-term price trend has triggered extreme short-term price spikes and increased volatility. An assessment of the costs of price volatility has shown that the existing literature follows a conventional marginal-cost approach that considers only few cost components. Direct and immediate components have not been adequately analyzed, and long-term effects have been overlooked. The effect on child nutrition and health is one such long-term effect. Under-nutrition in early childhood has negative consequences for lifetime earnings capacity because of the physical and mental impairment it causes. Economy wide distortions and misallocations also threaten the long-term development of commodity-dependent economies. Measuring and estimating the cost of food price volatility should factor in ongoing processes such as economic growth and technological changes. The supply, demand, and market explanations for high and volatile global prices have been differentiated as exogenous and endogenous factors. To help further identify the drivers of food price changes, they are categorized as root causes, intermediate causes, and immediate causes. Both empirical and theoretical evaluations suggest extreme weather events from the supply side, biofuel production from the demand side, and speculation in commodity futures from the market side are the three most important root causes of observed price volatility. The theoretical and empirical effects of speculation in commodity futures are not yet well understood. However, speculative trading in commodity futures should not be viewed as a random bet that can be smoothed out through the price system. It is important to consider the market and nonmarket contexts that guide the behavioral and strategic choices of speculators. Whereas speculation caused by manipulative, disorderly behaviors and "financialization" are damaging, speculation caused by demand and supply in physical markets can serve as price discovery, liquidity, and risk-hedging mechanisms. Our empirical analysis to quantify the importance of these factors shows that speculation effect is stronger than demand- and supply-side shocks for short term price spikes. Overall policy interventions at global, regional, and local levels should concentrate on reducing price spikes and protecting poor people from short- and long-term crises. The viii formulation and implementation of such policies must be supported with timely information and research-based evidence. A comprehensive portfolio of policy actions is proposed here, rather than over-extended individual measures to address the root causes or over-regulation of markets to address volatility and spikes. Evaluation of policy instruments should weigh the true costs associated with both, action versus inaction. Research must focus on developing price and food security indicators and models that will guide policy implementation also in the short run. Such models are currently missing. -- food security ; prices ; volatility ; poverty ; food policy ; speculation ; economic crises
Author | : Per Pinstrup-Andersen |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press (UK) |
Total Pages | : 545 |
Release | : 2015 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0198718578 |
Since 2006, global food prices have fluctuated greatly around an increasing trend and price spikes were observed for key food commodities such as rice, wheat, and maize.
Author | : Fan, Shenggen |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : 4 |
Release | : 2014-05-04 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : |
Volatility and spikes in global food prices can have large and diverse impacts on the welfare of poor people, particularly their food and nutrition status. Although high and volatile price levels have subsided in recent years, the international community should not become complacent. The complex set of concurrent factors behind the recent food price crises in 20072008 and 2011including diversion of crops for biofuel, extreme weather events, low grain stocks, and panicky trade behaviorsare still present or have the potential to reemerge. An important component of improving the stability of the global food system is to reduce price spikes and volatility that can destabilize future food availability and accessibility. The objective of this brief is to review the latest literature and developments related to actions taken in preventing and managing food price spikes and volatility and to identify future actions to build a more resilient global food system.
Author | : Klaus von Grebmer |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2011-10-10 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 0896299341 |
Author | : Jennifer Clapp |
Publisher | : Wilfrid Laurier Univ. Press |
Total Pages | : 289 |
Release | : 2009-09-30 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1554581982 |
The global food crisis is a stark reminder of the fragility of the global food system. The Global Food Crisis: Governance Challenges and Opportunities captures the debate about how to go forward and examines the implications of the crisis for food security in the world’s poorest countries, both for the global environment and for the global rules and institutions that govern food and agriculture. In this volume, policy-makers and scholars assess the causes and consequences of the most recent food price volatility and examine the associated governance challenges and opportunities, including short-term emergency responses, the ecological dimensions of the crisis, and the longer-term goal of building sustainable global food systems. The recommendations include vastly increasing public investment in small-farm agriculture; reforming global food aid and food research institutions; establishing fairer international agricultural trade rules; promoting sustainable agricultural methods; placing agriculture higher on the post-Kyoto climate change agenda; revamping biofuel policies; and enhancing international agricultural policy-making. Co-published with the Centre for International Governance Innovation
Author | : Adam Prakash |
Publisher | : Bright Sparks |
Total Pages | : 620 |
Release | : 2011 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
A timely publication as world leaders deliberate the causes of the latest bouts of food price volatility and search for solutions that address the recent velocity of financial, economic, political, demographic, and climatic change. As a collection compiled from a diverse group of economists, analysts, traders, institutions and policy formulators - comprising multiple methodologies and viewpoints - the book exposes the impact of volatility on global food security, with particular focus on the world's most vulnerable.
Author | : Jean-Paul Chavas |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 394 |
Release | : 2014-10-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 022612908X |
There has been an increase in food price instability in recent years, with varied consequences for farmers, market participants, and consumers. Before policy makers can design schemes to reduce food price uncertainty or ameliorate its effects, they must first understand the factors that have contributed to recent price instability. Does it arise primarily from technological or weather-related supply shocks, or from changes in demand like those induced by the growing use of biofuel? Does financial speculation affect food price volatility? The researchers who contributed to The Economics of Food Price Volatility address these and other questions. They examine the forces driving both recent and historical patterns in food price volatility, as well as the effects of various public policies in affecting this volatility. The chapters include studies of the links between food and energy markets, the impact of biofuel policy on the level and variability of food prices, and the effects of weather-related disruptions in supply. The findings shed light on the way price volatility affects the welfare of farmers, traders, and consumers.
Author | : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
Publisher | : Food & Agriculture Org. |
Total Pages | : 337 |
Release | : 2021-07-05 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9251346089 |
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.