Geographical And Sectoral Shocks In The Us Business Cycle
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Author | : Atish R. Ghosh |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
We examine whether the aggregate U.S. business cycle is driven mainly by geographical" shocks (affecting all sectors within a state), or by sectoral shocks (affecting the same sector in all" states). We find that, at the level of an individual sector in an individual state growth are driven by the sector, not by the state: textiles in Texas moves more with textiles" elsewhere in the U.S. than with other sectors in Texas. But shocks to sector growth rates exhibit" a lower correlation across sectors compared to the correlation of shocks to state growth rates" across states. As a result, geographical shocks gain greater importance at higher levels of" aggregation. Finally, we find that changes in the volatility of the aggregate U.S. business cycle" reflect, to a roughly comparable degree, both changes in the volatility of state and sector business" cycles, and changes in their correlation across sectors and states.
Author | : Mr.Ayhan Kose |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 51 |
Release | : 2008-06-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451870019 |
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Author | : Kajal Lahiri |
Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
Total Pages | : 143 |
Release | : 2010-09-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0857241486 |
Addressing the role that the transportation sector plays in business cycle propagation, this title presents an index of the different indicators for this sector to identify its state, and predict its future, using various statistical procedures.
Author | : World Bank |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 410 |
Release | : 2008-11-04 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 082137608X |
Rising densities of human settlements, migration and transport to reduce distances to market, and specialization and trade facilitated by fewer international divisions are central to economic development. The transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are most noticeable in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, but countries in Asia and Eastern Europe are changing in ways similar in scope and speed. 'World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography' concludes that these spatial transformations are essential, and should be encouraged. The conclusion is not without controversy. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. Globalization is believed to benefit many, but not the billion people living in lagging areas of developing nations. High poverty and mortality persist among the world's 'bottom billion', while others grow wealthier and live longer lives. Concern for these three billion often comes with the prescription that growth must be made spatially balanced. The WDR has a different message: economic growth is seldom balanced, and efforts to spread it out prematurely will jeopardize progress. The Report: documents how production becomes more concentrated spatially as economies grow. proposes economic integration as the principle for promoting successful spatial transformations. revisits the debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration and shows how today's developers can reshape economic geography.
Author | : Gregory D. Hess |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 342 |
Release | : 2000-09-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780521661638 |
This book brings the intranational macroeconomics literature into clearer focus by collecting the strands of research into a common thread.
Author | : Robert Shimer |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 189 |
Release | : 2010-04-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1400835232 |
Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.
Author | : Stephen Broadberry |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 363 |
Release | : 2005-09-29 |
Genre | : History |
ISBN | : 1139448358 |
This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 300 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Computer network resources |
ISBN | : |
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 228 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Transportation |
ISBN | : |
Provides a forum for the latest developments in transportation information and data, theory, concepts, and methods of analysis relevant to all aspects of the transportation system. Publishes original research on the use of information to improve public and private decisionmaking for transportation.
Author | : World Bank |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 339 |
Release | : 2021-08-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464816662 |
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.