Gains From Anchoring Inflation Expectations Evidence From The Taper Tantrum Shock
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| Author | : Mr.Rudolfs Bems |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 13 |
| Release | : 2019-03-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498306055 |
Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in the United States to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations' anchoring. We find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations in emerging markets pay off, as they ease the trade-off that central banks face when external shocks weaken growth prospects and trigger currency depreciations.
| Author | : Mr.Rudolfs Bems |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 13 |
| Release | : 2019-03-28 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498302777 |
Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in the United States to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations' anchoring. We find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations in emerging markets pay off, as they ease the trade-off that central banks face when external shocks weaken growth prospects and trigger currency depreciations.
| Author | : Mr. Pragyan Deb |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2023-10-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper revisits the transmission of monetary policy by constructing a novel dataset of monetary policy shocks for an unbalanced sample of 33 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1991Q2-2023Q2. Our findings reveal that tightening monetary policy swiftly and negatively impacts economic activity, but the effects on inflation and inflation expectations takes time to fully materialize. Notably, there exist significant heterogeneities in the transmission of monetary policy across countries and time, depending on structural characteristics and cyclical conditions. Across countries, monetary policy is more effective in countries with flexible exchange rate regime, more developed financial systems, and credible monetary policy frameworks. In addition, we find that monetary policy transmission is stronger when uncertainty is low, financial conditions are tight and monetary policy is coordinated with fiscal policy—that is, when the stances move in the same direction.
| Author | : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 172 |
| Release | : 2021-10-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513577522 |
The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex.
| Author | : Pilipenko, Olga Ivanovna |
| Publisher | : IGI Global |
| Total Pages | : 396 |
| Release | : 2021-03-18 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1799843106 |
The phenomenon of shocks is often mentioned in relation to economic crises but rarely studied. This gap in research has resulted in shocks being poorly understood, with no fundamental explanation of their inciting conditions. It is a system-forming problem that cannot be investigated without dynamic ideas about the economy, but an incomplete understanding of this event leaves economic systems vulnerable to collapse. Theory of Shocks, COVID-19, and Normative Fundamentals for Policy Responses is an essential publication that explores the factors that cause economic shocks and the mechanisms of their implementation. The book serves as a resource for the development of policy-oriented frameworks for achieving and maintaining national and international strategies to properly manage future global shocks. Featuring coverage of a wide range of topics including dialectics, self-evolvement, and structural relationships, this book is ideally designed for economists, executives, managers, entrepreneurs, academicians, students, and researchers in the areas of finance, macroeconomics, economic theory, and risk assessment.
| Author | : Ziolo, Magdalena |
| Publisher | : IGI Global |
| Total Pages | : 313 |
| Release | : 2021-04-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1799867900 |
Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) risk considers the nonfinancial risks that could arise in a business, such as sustainability, brand reputation, legal aspects, ethics, and more. As businesses all have their own risk profiles, there is a need for risk management and mitigation that is unique for each company. Because of this variability, the study on ESG risk factors and motives of incorporating the ESG perspective into business models are crucial yet challenging. Therefore, it is important to understand how companies are adapting and mitigating ESG risk in diverse types of businesses. Adapting and Mitigating Environmental, Social, and Governance Risk in Business examines processes in enterprises that can increase the sustainability of business models and their coherence with the assumptions of the concept of sustainable development and ESG risk. Furthermore, the book explores how enterprises operating in different sectors are adapting their business models towards sustainability in order to create sustainable value. This book is a valuable tool for managers, executives, entrepreneurs, practitioners, academicians, researchers, and graduate students in finance, business, and management.
| Author | : Mrs.Esther Perez Ruiz |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2016-09-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475533888 |
This paper examines inflation dynamics in Chile during the last peso depreciation episode 2013-15. The evidence is for substantial pass-through effects to inflation, given the large and persistent depreciation movement. Widespread indexation practices in non-traded goods markets are found to amplify the inflation response to the depreciation, while the role of wage indexation is less relevant to the inflation dynamics. Overall, inflation would have remained within the central bank’s target band absent the peso depreciation. The analysis also shows that tightening monetary policy in response to a depreciation shock can be costly in terms of output: the response of activity to rates is found to be strong, while the transmission from activity to inflation is found to be weak. Simulations under uncertainty about the extent of the pass-through also suggest that monetary policy can play a countercyclical role in the face of depreciation shocks at a moderate inflationary cost, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
| Author | : Ms.Ana Corbacho |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 311 |
| Release | : 2018-10-02 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513558900 |
The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
| Author | : World Bank |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 339 |
| Release | : 2021-08-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464816662 |
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 215 |
| Release | : 2018-10-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 148437679X |
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.
