Fx Intervention To Stabilize Or Manipulate The Exchange Rate Inference From Profitability
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Author | : Mr.Damiano Sandri |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 24 |
Release | : 2020-06-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513547666 |
We analyze the profitability of FX swaps used by the central bank of Brazil to shed light on the rationale for FX intervention. We find that swaps are profitable in expectation, suggesting that FX intervention is used to stabilize the exchange rate in the face of temporary excessive movements rather than to manipulate it away from fundamental values. In line with this interpretation, we find that the scale of FX intervention responds to the degree of exchange rate misalignment relative to UIP conditions. We also document that intervention is more aggressive when there is less uncertainty about the medium-term level of the exchange rate and when the exchange rate is overvalued rather than undervalued.
Author | : Damiano Sandri |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2022 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Romain Lafarguette |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 33 |
Release | : 2021-02-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513569406 |
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Author | : Gustavo Adler |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 37 |
Release | : 2016-04-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 148433230X |
The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.
Author | : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : Banks and banking, Central |
ISBN | : 9789291319626 |
Author | : Milan Nedeljkovic |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 35 |
Release | : 2017-01-24 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475571038 |
This paper studies the relative effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in spot and derivatives markets. We make use of Brazilian data where spot and non-deliverable futures based intervention have been used in tandem for more than a decade. The analysis finds evidence in favor of a significant link between both modes of intervention and the first two moments of the real/dollar exchange rate. As predicted by theory for the case of negligible convertibility risk, the impact of spot market intervention in our baseline sample is strikingly similar to that achieved through futures based intervention worth an equivalent amount in notional principal.
Author | : Laurent L. Jacque |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 392 |
Release | : 2013-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9400918062 |
Since I first published Management of Foreign Exchange Risk (Lexington Books, 1978), financial innovation-spurred, in part, by exploding volatility in currency prices-has revolutionized the theory and praxis of foreign exchange risk management. Old-fashioned forward contracts have surrendered market share to currency swaps and options as well as to their perpetually multiplying derivatives. Interestingly, forex derivatives now provide a low cost and highly efficient method of transferring risk from the firms that are exposed to risk but which would rather not be (i. e. , risk-hedgers) to those which are not exposed but which-in exchange for a fee-would assume some exposure to risk (i. e. , risk bearers). Perhaps more importantly, foreign exchange risk management, which was once a fairly mechanical task confmed to the international treasury function, is now permeating global strategic management. Indeed, since the demise of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates, the cost of forex hedging instruments has fallen so dramatically that firms can readily avail themselves of hedging products which can reduce unwanted risk, thereby potentially gaining a competitive advantage over rivals that do not. Management and Control of Foreign Exchange Risk has grown out of a fundamental revision of my earlier work published almost 20 years ago. In the process, my thinking about risk and its mathematics has greatly benefitted from my association with John Cozzolino and Charles Tapiero.
Author | : Leslie Lipschitz |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 312 |
Release | : 2019-01-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1108568467 |
Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
Author | : Masahiro Kawai |
Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
Total Pages | : 321 |
Release | : 2012-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0857933353 |
Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.
Author | : Abdurrahman Arum Rahman |
Publisher | : Global Currency Initiative |
Total Pages | : 578 |
Release | : 2021-12-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
The US dollar and the euro are not true international currencies, but the currencies of the United States and the Euro, which are “adopted” into international currencies. We designed a truly international currency that is controlled jointly by all (member) countries in the world in a democratic and decentralized manner. The name of the system is organic. The organic system issues an international currency called organic currency. The organic currency is only for international transactions between member countries. Meanwhile, domestic transactions still use their respective national currencies. This system can provide international currency and FX reserves to all (member) countries in the world for free. This system can free all countries from government foreign debt, maintain a balance of payments, make the international monetary system stable, and eliminate the monetary crisis from its roots. This system can start from a small scale, such as ASEAN, South Asia, East Asia, Middle East, Latin America, East Africa, West, Central, and other regions. Unlike the Euro model, this system does not require economic integration. So all countries in the world can join in their condition as they are. In this third edition book, we deepen the theory, improve the plot, sharpen the analysis, add examples, remove some less essential parts, and add references to raise academic standards. We maintain a very simple writing system, easy to read, accompanied by empirical examples and easy-to-understand illustrations. We want the discussion of the international economic and monetary system to be “friendly” for all and “not scary”. We avoid very technical terms. Even if there are, we always provide very simple explanations and illustrations. Everyone can read this book. Because international currency is of public interest. Every individual on earth has the right to know clearly.