Fx Intervention To Stabilize Or Manipulate The Exchange Rate
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| Author | : Romain Lafarguette |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2021-02-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513569406 |
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
| Author | : Mr.Damiano Sandri |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 24 |
| Release | : 2020-06-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513547666 |
We analyze the profitability of FX swaps used by the central bank of Brazil to shed light on the rationale for FX intervention. We find that swaps are profitable in expectation, suggesting that FX intervention is used to stabilize the exchange rate in the face of temporary excessive movements rather than to manipulate it away from fundamental values. In line with this interpretation, we find that the scale of FX intervention responds to the degree of exchange rate misalignment relative to UIP conditions. We also document that intervention is more aggressive when there is less uncertainty about the medium-term level of the exchange rate and when the exchange rate is overvalued rather than undervalued.
| Author | : Gustavo Adler |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2015-06-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513534602 |
We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.
| Author | : Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : Banks and banking, Central |
| ISBN | : 9789291319626 |
| Author | : Victor E. Argy |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 374 |
| Release | : 1982 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Michael D. Bordo |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 453 |
| Release | : 2015-03-02 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 022605151X |
During the twentieth century, foreign-exchange intervention was sometimes used in an attempt to solve the fundamental trilemma of international finance, which holds that countries cannot simultaneously pursue independent monetary policies, stabilize their exchange rates, and benefit from free cross-border financial flows. Drawing on a trove of previously confidential data, Strained Relations reveals the evolution of US policy regarding currency market intervention, and its interaction with monetary policy. The authors consider how foreign-exchange intervention was affected by changing economic and institutional circumstances—most notably the abandonment of the international gold standard—and how political and bureaucratic factors affected this aspect of public policy.
| Author | : Mr.Sonali Das |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2019-03-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498302025 |
China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.
| Author | : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2015-07-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513585843 |
Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these inflows on the exchange rate. To deal with endogeneity issues, we look at the response of different countries to plausibly exogenous gross inflows, and explore the cross country variation of FXI and exchange rate responses. Consistent with the portfolio balance channel, we find that larger FXI leads to less exchange rate appreciation in response to gross inflows.
| Author | : Milan Nedeljkovic |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2017-01-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475571038 |
This paper studies the relative effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in spot and derivatives markets. We make use of Brazilian data where spot and non-deliverable futures based intervention have been used in tandem for more than a decade. The analysis finds evidence in favor of a significant link between both modes of intervention and the first two moments of the real/dollar exchange rate. As predicted by theory for the case of negligible convertibility risk, the impact of spot market intervention in our baseline sample is strikingly similar to that achieved through futures based intervention worth an equivalent amount in notional principal.
| Author | : Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 2019-01-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484395212 |
For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
