Fragmentation In Global Trade Accounting For Commodities
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| Author | : Marijn A. Bolhuis |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2023-03-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.
| Author | : Richard E. Baldwin |
| Publisher | : CEPR |
| Total Pages | : 246 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : Commercial policy |
| ISBN | : 1907142061 |
| Author | : Mr. Shekhar Aiyar |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 2023-01-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism
| Author | : Mr. Jorge A Alvarez |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 78 |
| Release | : 2023-10-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
| Author | : Chikako Baba |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2023-11-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.
| Author | : Martínez-Falcó, Javier |
| Publisher | : IGI Global |
| Total Pages | : 400 |
| Release | : 2024-10-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Modern insights into international trade and commerce reveal new landscapes shaped by technological advancements, shifting economic power, and complex global trade. As the world becomes interconnected, digital transformation, including e-commerce and blockchain technology, is revolutionizing how goods and services are exchanged across borders, streamlining transactions and enhancing transparency. Rising markets and changing political landscapes are reshaping traditional trade routes and strategies. A nuanced understanding of new trade policies and economic agreements is necessary to leverage data analytics and adapt to evolving consumer preference. Modern Insights in International Trade and Commerce offers theoretical knowledge and practical insights into international trade and commerce. By integrating case studies, empirical data, and expert analyses, it provides a rich resource for further academic exploration into global business, market entry strategies, and cross-cultural management. This book covers topics such as, and is a useful resource for academicians, researchers, business owners, consultants, strategists, and economists.
| Author | : Cristina Constantinescu |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 2015-01-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498399134 |
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
| Author | : Aqib Aslam |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 2017-11-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484328981 |
Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
| Author | : Bertrand Gruss |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2019-01-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484393856 |
This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
| Author | : World Bank |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 545 |
| Release | : 2019-11-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464814953 |
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
