Flow Duration Curve Prediction for Ungauged Basins

Flow Duration Curve Prediction for Ungauged Basins
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 188
Release: 2016
Genre: Electronic books
ISBN:

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools for displaying streamflow data, and percentile flows derived from the FDC provide essential information for managing rivers. These statistics are generally not available since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows are frequently predicted using regression models developed using streamflow and ancillary data from gauged basins. Many potential independent variables are now available to predict percentile flows due to the ready availability of spatially distributed physical and climatic data for basins. A subset of the variables is often selected using automated regression procedures, but these procedures only evaluate a portion of the possible variable combinations. Other approaches for exploiting the information from physical and climatic data may produce stronger models for predicting percentile flows. The overarching hypothesis guiding this dissertation research was that more extensive approaches for extracting information from large sets of independent variables may improve percentile flow predictions. The dissertation was organized into the following three linked studies: (1) a performance evaluation of various approaches for selecting the independent variables of percentile flow regression models, (2) a comparison of different sets of variables for percentile flow regression modeling with increasing amounts of information in terms of the number of variables and their description of the statistical distribution of the data, and (3) a proof-of-concept study using a neural network approach called the self-organizing map (SOM) to account for the noise and non-linearity of predictive relations between the independent variables and percentile flows. Key findings from these studies were as follows: (1) random forests was the best approach for selecting the independent variables for regression models used to predict percentile flows, but variables selected based on a conceptual understanding of the FDC performed nearly as well, (2) a set of only three variables (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index) performed as well as models with larger sets of variables representing more physical and climatic information, and (3) the SOM performed similarly to global regression models based on all the basins, but did not outperform regression models developed for regions composed of similar basins. This may be due to the SOM using all the independent variables, whereas the regression models discarded irrelevant variables that could increase the error in percentile flow predictions. All the studies of this dissertation were performed using 918 basins in the contiguous US, and the resulting predictive models provide a tool for local watershed managers to predict 13 percentile flows along with an estimate of the predictive error. These models could be improved through future research that (1) emphasizes the role of geology as this provided the most valuable information for predicting the percentile flows, (2) exploits new sources of remotely sensed information as classic topographic variables provided little predictive information, and (3) develops specialized models designed for high and low flows as these were the most difficult to predict.

Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins
Author: Günter Blöschl
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 491
Release: 2013-04-18
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1107067553

Predicting water runoff in ungauged water catchment areas is vital to practical applications such as the design of drainage infrastructure and flooding defences, runoff forecasting, and for catchment management tasks such as water allocation and climate impact analysis. This full colour book offers an impressive synthesis of decades of international research, forming a holistic approach to catchment hydrology and providing a one-stop resource for hydrologists in both developed and developing countries. Topics include data for runoff regionalisation, the prediction of runoff hydrographs, flow duration curves, flow paths and residence times, annual and seasonal runoff, and floods. Illustrated with many case studies and including a final chapter on recommendations for researchers and practitioners, this book is written by expert authors involved in the prestigious IAHS PUB initiative. It is a key resource for academic researchers and professionals in the fields of hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, geography, soil science, and environmental and civil engineering.

Environmental Flow Assessment

Environmental Flow Assessment
Author: John G. Williams
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 236
Release: 2019-06-10
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1119217369

Provides critiques of current practices for environmental flow assessment and shows how they can be improved, using case studies. In Environmental Flow Assessment: Methods and Applications, four leading experts critique methods used to manage flows in regulated streams and rivers to balance environmental (instream) and out-of-stream uses of water. Intended for managers as well as practitioners, the book dissects the shortcomings of commonly used approaches, and offers practical advice for selecting and implementing better ones. The authors argue that methods for environmental flow assessment (EFA) can be defensible as well as practicable only if they squarely address uncertainty, and provide guidance for doing so. Introductory chapters describe the scientific and social reasons that EFA is hard, and provide a brief history. Because management of regulated streams starts with understanding freshwater ecosystems, Environmental Flow Assessment: Methods and Applications includes chapters on flow and organisms in streams. The following chapters assess standard and emerging methods, how they should be tested, and how they should (or should not) be applied. The book concludes with practical recommendations for implementing environmental flow assessment. Describes historical and recent trends in environmental flow assessment Directly addresses practical difficulties with applying a scientifically informed approach in contentious circumstances Serves as an effective introduction to the relevant literature, with many references to articles in related scientific fields Pays close attention to statistical issues such as sampling, estimation of statistical uncertainty, and model selection Includes recommendations for methods and approaches Examines how methods have been tested in the past and shows how they should be tested today and in the future Environmental Flow Assessment: Methods and Applications is an excellent book for biologists and specialists in allied fields such as engineering, ecology, fluvial geomorphology, environmental planning, landscape architecture, along with river managers and decision makers.

Methods for Estimating Low-flow Statistics for Massachusetts Streams

Methods for Estimating Low-flow Statistics for Massachusetts Streams
Author: Kernell G. Ries
Publisher:
Total Pages: 96
Release: 2000
Genre: Electronic government information
ISBN:

... This final report of the Basin Yield Study series presents methods that can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for streams in Massachusetts and describes the analyses done to develop and evaluate the methods ...

Flow and Sediment Prediction at Ungauged Basins Using Artificial Intelligence Models and Entropy Index

Flow and Sediment Prediction at Ungauged Basins Using Artificial Intelligence Models and Entropy Index
Author: Maya Atieh
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

The prediction of streamflow and sediment load statistics at locations within ungauged remote basins remains one of the most uncertain modelling tasks in hydrology. The intent of this research was to gain a better understanding of flow and sediment load statistics at ungauged basins through 1) developing artificial neural networks (ANN), and gene expression programming (GEP) models that address the complex nonlinear effect of physio-climatic parameters on flow duration curve (FDC) and sediment rating curve (SRC) statistics, 2) determining the most important physio-climatic parameters impacting FDC parameters (mean, variance), and SRC parameters (rating coefficient and exponent), 3) introducing an entropy parameter, apportionment entropy disorder index (AEDI), that represents precipitation variability, 4) adopting techniques within ANN models to cope with data scarcity including the Dropout method and synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE), and 5) assessing the impacts of flow regulation on FDC parameters. ANN models trained and tested on 147 stations in Ontario, Canada, revealed that climatic, topographic and land cover characteristics were the most important inputs defining average flow. Topographic and hydrologic characteristics were the most important parameters defining flow variability. ANN and GEP models trained and tested on 260 regulated and unregulated gauging stations across North America showed that drainage area followed by mean annual precipitation, shape factor and AEDI were the most influential parameters on average flow. Regulation was found to affect flow variability and had no significant impact on average flow. Dropout and SMOTE techniques improved model performance. ANN models trained and tested on 94 gauged streams in Ontario, Canada revealed that the rating coefficient is positively correlated to rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, and AEDI and negatively correlated to vegetation cover and mean annual snowfall. The rating exponent was found to be positively correlated to mean annual precipitation, AEDI, main channel slope, standard deviation of flow and negatively correlated to the fraction of basin area covered by water. AEDI has been successfully integrated in the FDC and SRC prediction models. Including AEDI parameter in FDC and SRC models improved model performance. This thesis recommends using AEDI in future hydrological modelling research.

Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins
Author: Günter Blöschl
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 491
Release: 2013-04-18
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1107028183

A synthesis of international catchment hydrology research, for researchers and professionals in hydrology, soil science, and environmental and civil engineering.

Scaling and Regionalization of Flow Duration Curve Across the Contiguous United States

Scaling and Regionalization of Flow Duration Curve Across the Contiguous United States
Author: Matin Rahnamay Naeini
Publisher:
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN: 9781369173192

The flow duration curve (FDC) is a signature catchment characteristic that depicts graphically the relationship between the exceedance probability of streamflow and its magnitude. This curve is relatively easy to create and interpret, and is used widely for hydrologic analysis, water quality management, and the design of hydroelectric power plants (among others). In a recent paper, Vrugt and Sadegh [2013] proposed the van Genuchten model as parametric expression for the FDC. This model and other soil water retention functions were tested by Sadegh et al. [2016] and found to closely describe the FDCs of the MOPEX data set. In this thesis, we apply the similar media concept of Miller and Miller [1956] to surface hydrology and analyze the spatial variability of the FDC in the contiguous US. The scaling method is used to coalesce the FDCs of the MOPEX data set into a "mean" reference curve for the contiguous US using single scaling factors for the FDC of the watersheds. Results demonstrate that the scaling factors exhibit a strong geographical trend with spatial patterns similar to those observed in US precipitation maps. Regionalization of the scaling factors is particularly successful for the peak flows of the FDC. Cokriging with environmental covariates such as the annual rainfall amount of each watershed improves further the prediction of the FDC for ungauged basins.

Rainfall-runoff Modelling In Gauged And Ungauged Catchments

Rainfall-runoff Modelling In Gauged And Ungauged Catchments
Author: Thorsten Wagener
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 333
Release: 2004-09-09
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1783260661

This important monograph is based on the results of a study on the identification of conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff models for gauged and ungauged catchments. The task of model identification remains difficult despite decades of research. A detailed problem analysis and an extensive review form the basis for the development of a Matlab® modelling toolkit consisting of two components: a Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Toolbox (RRMT) and a Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT). These are subsequently applied to study the tasks of model identification and evaluation. A novel dynamic identifiability approach has been developed for the gauged catchment case. The theory underlying the application of rainfall-runoff models for predictions in ungauged catchments is studied, problems are highlighted and promising ways to move forward are investigated. Modelling frameworks for both gauged and ungauged cases are developed. This book presents the first extensive treatment of rainfall-runoff model identification in gauged and ungauged catchments.