Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits

Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits
Author: Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2009-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451874014

This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to compute shortrun multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 0.5 percentage point increase in the U.S. deficit to GDP ratio raises the U.S. tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, thereby reducing U.S. and rest of the world output by 0.3-0.6 and 0.2 percent, respectively.

Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue?

Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue?
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2009
Genre: Budget deficits
ISBN:

This paper uses the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to compute shortrun multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 0.5 percentage point increase in the U.S. deficit to GDP ratio raises the U.S. tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, thereby reducing U.S. and rest of the world output by 0.3-0.6 and 0.2 percent, respectively.

Fiscal and Debt Policies for the Future

Fiscal and Debt Policies for the Future
Author: P. Arestis
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 270
Release: 2014-04-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137269537

This book offers detailed analysis and informed comment on the future of emerging economic policies. It is essential reading for all postgraduates and scholars looking for expert discussion and debate on the issues surrounding economic policy.

Iceland

Iceland
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 55
Release: 2010-10-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145520854X

In this study, during 2008, the financial crisis lead Iceland’s public debt to soar from under 30 percent of GDP to more than 100 percent of GDP, and while underlying external debt came down sharply, it remains elevated at close to 300 percent of GDP. First, external sustainability is overviewed, and second, growth of Iceland’s economy has been challenged, and finally, fiscal adjustments and its macroeconomic impacts are overviewed. Traditional external debt sustainability analysis (DSA) suggests that Iceland’s external debt is sustainable but is vulnerable to depreciation shock.

It’s Not All Fiscal

It’s Not All Fiscal
Author: Laura Jaramillo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2015-05-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151358474X

We attempt to disentangle income and wealth effects on consumption by disaggregating both the different types of income and wealth. We estimate a consumption function for a panel of quarterly data for 14 advanced economies spanning 1998 to 2012, using an error correction specification. We find a significant long-term relation between consumption and the different components of income and wealth. While fiscal policy had direct effects on consumption, the analysis suggests that wealth effects were sizeable, and therefore need to be kept in mind when analyzing consumption trends going forward.

A European Unemployment Benefit Scheme

A European Unemployment Benefit Scheme
Author: Bertelsmann Stiftung
Publisher: Verlag Bertelsmann Stiftung
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2014-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3867936005

The recent euro crisis and the dramatic increase of unemployment in some euro countries have triggered a renewed interest in a fiscal capacity for the European Union to stabilize the economy of its member states. One of the proposed instruments is a common European unemployment insurance. In this book Sebastian Dullien from the HTW Berlin provides and evaluates a blueprint for such a scheme. Building on lessons from the unemployment insurance in the United States of America, he outlines how a European unemployment benefit scheme could be constructed to provide significant stabilization to national business cycles, yet without strongly extending social protection in Europe. Macroeconomic stabilization effects and payment flows between countries are simulated and options, potential pitfalls and existing concerns discussed.

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy
Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2018-07-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484366328

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.

Asia and China in the Global Economy

Asia and China in the Global Economy
Author: Yin-Wong Cheung
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 443
Release: 2011
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814335274

The volume represents a collection of papers that examine important topical themes related to the rise of China and Asia in the global economy. It offers many useful insights on several issues that are hotly debated in the international community, especially in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis. The contributors are renowned experts from academic institutions, central banks, and international organizations. Their analyses and points of view offer valuable insights for researchers and policymakers who are interested in the recent developments in China, Asia, and the global economy. Specifically, the thirteen chapters contained in the volume address four broad themes. The first theme is on open macroeconomics and transmission mechanisms that highlight the interactions between countries in the globalization era. The second theme covers the contentious issue of renminbi valuation, which has significant implications for the debate on global imbalances. The third theme covers currency internationalization and financial markets in Asia. In particular, two chapters discuss renminbi internationalization and yen internationalization, while the other two papers examine yen carry trade and the Asian credit card market. The fourth theme is external demand and fiscal stimulus in Asian countries.

Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy

Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy
Author: Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 297
Release: 2018-04-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148432594X

Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.

Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms

Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms
Author: Ms.Anita Tuladhar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 65
Release: 2010-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455211788

The paper explores the macroeconomic effects of three public pension reforms, namely an increase in retirement age, a reduction in benefits and an increase in contribution rates. Using a five-region version of the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we find that public pension reforms can have a positive effect on growth in both the short run, propelled by rising consumption, and in the long run, due to lower government debt crowding in higher investment. We also find that a reform action undertaken cooperatively by all regions results in larger output effects, reflecting stronger capital accumulation due to higher world savings. An increase in the retirement age reform yields the strongest impact in the short run, due to the demand effects of higher labor income and in the long run because of supply effects.