Small-scale (less than 1 ha) farmers near Lake Atitlán in Sololá Province, Guatemala are becoming increasingly active in non-traditional export crop (NTX) production. The transition from growing only a traditional, polycrop known as milpa carries both economic risk and opportunity for these producers. Their use rate of synthetic, phosphorus intense fertilizers, the most expensive input used to grow NTXs, are currently based on single-season buyer recommendations. Experts in the field have estimated that current use rates could be halved without detrimental effects to yield. Excess fertilizers are causing eutrophication problems in Lake Atitlán, which is in turn harming the second largest industry in the area: tourism. This study examines the risks associated with transitioning to NTX production at the household farm level. Models include yield risk using Monte Carlo simulations in @RISK6, and risk minimization and profit maximization given multiple production scenarios using GAMS.