Why Intelligence Fails

Why Intelligence Fails
Author: Robert Jervis
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Total Pages: 249
Release: 2010-12-15
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0801457610

The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations—analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind—were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.

Understanding Intelligence Failure

Understanding Intelligence Failure
Author: James J. Wirtz
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 271
Release: 2016-11-10
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1317375726

This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.

Constructing Cassandra

Constructing Cassandra
Author: Milo Jones
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Total Pages: 389
Release: 2013-08-21
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0804787158

Constructing Cassandra analyzes the intelligence failures at the CIA that resulted in four key strategic surprises experienced by the US: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Iranian revolution of 1978, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks—surprises still play out today in U.S. policy. Although there has been no shortage of studies exploring how intelligence failures can happen, none of them have been able to provide a unified understanding of the phenomenon. To correct that omission, this book brings culture and identity to the foreground to present a unified model of strategic surprise; one that focuses on the internal make-up the CIA, and takes seriously those Cassandras who offered warnings, but were ignored. This systematic exploration of the sources of the CIA's intelligence failures points to ways to prevent future strategic surprises.

Intelligence Success and Failure

Intelligence Success and Failure
Author: Uri Bar-Joseph
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 281
Release: 2017
Genre: History
ISBN: 0199341745

Machine generated contents note: -- Contents -- Introduction -- Part One: The Theoretical Framework -- Chapter I. Surprise Attack: A Framework for Discussion -- Chapter II. Examining the Learning Process -- Part Two: The Empirical Evidence -- The First Dyad: Barbarossa and the Battle for Moscow -- Case Study I: The Failure -- Case Study II: Success: The Battle for Moscow -- The Second Dyad: The USA in the Korean War -- Case study I: Failing to Forecast the War -- Case Study II: Failure II: The Chinese Intervention of Fall 1950 -- The Third Dyad: Intelligence Failure and Success in the War of Yom Kippur -- Case Study I: The Failure -- Case Study II: The Success -- Chapter VI. Conclusions

Intelligence and Surprise Attack

Intelligence and Surprise Attack
Author: Erik J. Dahl
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Total Pages: 289
Release: 2013-07-19
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1589019989

How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.

Breakdown

Breakdown
Author: Bill Gertz
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Total Pages: 311
Release: 2012-03-28
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1596987103

New York Times bestselling author Bill Gertz uses his unparalleled access to America's intelligence system to show how this system completely broke down in the years, months, and days leading up to the deadly terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

Fool Me Twice: Intelligence Failure and Mass Casualty Terrorism

Fool Me Twice: Intelligence Failure and Mass Casualty Terrorism
Author: Thomas Copeland
Publisher: BRILL
Total Pages: 318
Release: 2007-07-30
Genre: Law
ISBN: 9047440293

This study evaluates whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors – failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information – contribute to intelligence failure. The study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, congressional oversight, and society’s expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks.

Failure of Intelligence

Failure of Intelligence
Author: Melvin Allan Goodman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 412
Release: 2008
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9780742551107

Failure of Intelligence is designed to inform the debate over intelligence policy and suggest a reform agenda. The provocative mingling of historical description with contemporary political analysis and reform prescription challenges the conventional wisdom on clandestine collection and ultimately and persuasively asserts that the failure to have diplomatic relations has led to the inability to collect intelligence.

Intelligence Failure

Intelligence Failure
Author: David N. Bossie
Publisher: Thomas Nelson
Total Pages: 282
Release: 2004
Genre: Biography & Autobiography
ISBN:

Eight years before 9/11, on February 26, 1993, Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda terrorist network declared war against the United States with a deadly attack on the World Trade Center. Al Qaeda continued to wage war on the U.S. throughout the Clinton Administration, attacking Khobar Towers in 1996, two U.S. embassies in East Africa in 1998, and the U.S.S. Cole in 2000. How could these attacks happen? How could Al Qaeda wage these assaults against the strongest, best-defended nation in the world? Intelligence Failure is the definitive account of Bill Clinton's greatest failure as president. Using exclusive research and previously unreported findings from congressional investigations and other sources, David Bossie details how Clinton's poor leadership and denigration of both the U.S. military and intelligence services exposed America to terrorist assault. "September 11, 2001, may have happened under Bush's watch," Bossie declares, "but it will always remain Clinton's legacy."

Historical Dictionary of Intelligence Failures

Historical Dictionary of Intelligence Failures
Author: Glenmore S. Trenear-Harvey
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 307
Release: 2014-11-20
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1442232749

An Intelligence failure can be defined where there was intelligence available about a particular event, but either it was not collected or was mishandled later in the assessment cycle, as opposed to the failure of an intelligence operation. The Historical Dictionary of Intelligence Failures covers the history of intelligence failures through a chronology, an introductory essay, an extensive bibliography, and over 100 cross-referenced dictionary entries on the Ardennes Offensive, the Six Day War, and the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Prague Spring, the Arab Spring, 9/11. This book is an excellent access point for students, researchers, and anyone wanting to know more about the intelligence industry.