Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox

Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox
Author: M. Allais
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 706
Release: 2013-03-14
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9401576297

Utility theory or, value theory in general, is certainly the cornerstone of decision theory, game theory, microecon~mics, and all social and political theories which deal with public decisions. Recently the American School of utility, founded by von N eumann Morgenstern, encountered a far-going criticism by the French School of utility represented by its founder Allais. The whole basis of the theory of decisions involving risk has been shaken and put into question. Consequently, basic research in the fundamentals of utility and value theory evolved into a crisis. Like any crisis in basic research, and this one was not an exception, it was very fruitful. One may simply say: Allais versus von Neumann-Morgenstern, or the French School of utility versus the American School, became one of the battlefields of scientific development which proved to be a most creative source of new advances and new developments in all those sciences which are based on evaluation of utilities.

Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications

Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications
Author: Ward Edwards
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2013-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9401129525

The Conference on "Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications" met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10.

Utility and Probability

Utility and Probability
Author: John Eatwell
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 330
Release: 1990-02-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1349205680

This is an excerpt from the 4-volume dictionary of economics, a reference book which aims to define the subject of economics today. 1300 subject entries in the complete work cover the broad themes of economic theory. This extract concentrates on utility and probability.

Decision Science and Technology

Decision Science and Technology
Author: James Shanteau
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 425
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461550890

Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.

Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications

Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications
Author: Bernt P. Stigum
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2010-12-25
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9789048183647

In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.

The Ten Commandments of Risk Leadership

The Ten Commandments of Risk Leadership
Author: Annette Hofmann
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 185
Release: 2022-02-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030887979

We as humans are prone to a variety of wired-in cognitive mistakes in the way we interpret and react to risk-related information. This is highly consequential since the cognitive biases managers are exposed to in their day-to-day business erode the objectivity of their risk-related decisions, which ultimately hurts the financial well-being of their firms. This book seeks to develop risk literacy as a leadership skill. It helps managers develop the skills to improve managerial decision-making in regards to managing risk. The last decades have offered various insights into how human nature often gets in the way of rational decision-making. This book is a valuable resource for insurance executives, chief risk officers, company leaders, and graduate students of risk management and risk psychology. It is the first behavioral risk management guide for managers and other interested readers - using examples from economic theory, behavioral finance, and game theory, it studies the hidden forces that drive our decision-making processes under risk.

Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory

Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory
Author: L. Daboni
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9400946163

The Second International Conference on Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory was held in Venice, June 1984. This volume presents some of the papers delivered at FUR-84. (The First International Conference, FUR-82, was held in Oslo and some of the papers presented on that occasion were published by Reidel in the volume Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, edited by Bernt P. Stigum and Fred Wenst~p). The theory of choice under uncertainty involves a vast range of controversial issues in many fields like economics, philosophy, psychology, mathematics and statistics. The idea of discussing these problems in international conferences has been successful: two conferences have been held and others will follow. The climate of the debate has changed in the meantime, partly as a result of these conferences. It is no more only a question of attacking or defending the neo-Bernoullian assumptions, but also of proposing wider generalizations and including new elements in the analysis of the decision process. For instance Amartya Sen - comparing the two current notions of rationality, internal consistency and self-interest pursuit introduces the concept of reasoning and considers the irrationality which may result from the failure of a positive correspondence between reasoning and choice or from a limited capacity of reasoning. Rationality is also considered with respect to the controversial axiom of strong independence. John C. Harsanyi introduces the concept of practical certainty, i. e.

Is Behavioral Economics Doomed?

Is Behavioral Economics Doomed?
Author: David K. Levine
Publisher: Open Book Publishers
Total Pages: 154
Release: 2012
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1906924929

In this book, David K. Levine questions the idea that behavioral economics is the answer to economic problems. He explores the successes and failures of contemporary economics both inside and outside the laboratory, and asks whether popular behavioral theories of psychological biases are solutions to the failures. The book not only provides an overview of popular behavioral theories and their history, but also gives the reader the tools for scrutinizing them.

Decision Theory with a Human Face

Decision Theory with a Human Face
Author: Richard Bradley
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 351
Release: 2017-10-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1107003210

Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.

Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory
Author: Peter P. Wakker
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 519
Release: 2010-07-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139489100

Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.