Essays on Market Microstructure and Return Predictability of Mutual Funds

Essays on Market Microstructure and Return Predictability of Mutual Funds
Author: Ekaterina Serikova
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis contains three papers. Each paper addresses a distinct research question and is implemented on a separate dataset. The first paper concludes that daytime auctions, together with market opening and closing intervals, contribute to the periodicity of the cross-section of stock returns. By applying the model of infrequent rebalancing, I show that model parameters fit the data for the after-auction intervals. I thus conclude that after-auction periods take over a large share of infrequent rebalancing and show that this effect is driven by the concentration of liquidity traders. Small, low-fragmented stocks heavily traded on the home market show the strongest evidence for infrequent rebalancing after the daytime auctions. The second paper sheds light on how traders allocate risk of stock portfolios in a trading day. Traders decrease risk before the market close. They do so by selling stocks with the highest marginal risk and buying stocks that decrease the risk of their portfolio the most. As our measure of portfolio risk relates to the one that clearing houses use for the margin requirements, we conclude that the risk-reduction behavior is driven by traders' reluctance to provide end-of-day margin contributions to the CCP. These trading flows in the direction of risk contraction distort closing stock prices. The third paper replicates and combines eight prominent predictors of mutual fund returns to obtain a composite, aggregate fund predictor. While only three of the eight individual variables are significant predictors of future fund performance in a multivariate setting, the composite predictor has strong forecasting power. A hypothetical quintilebased long-short strategy based on the composite predictor realizes a four-factor alpha of 6% per year. The performance spread is robust to different regression specifications, is similar for different size classes and investment styles, and persists over time. Our results p.

Essays on Mutual Fund Performance and Predictability

Essays on Mutual Fund Performance and Predictability
Author: Yu Xia
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

"This thesis consists of two essays on evaluating mutual fund performance and its predictability. In the first essay, I study the ex ante predictability of 12 well-known predictors for fund performance from investors' perspective. The 12 predictors cover three major categories: fund characteristics, fund performance, and holding-based activeness measures, which are constructed using real-time information. For performance evaluation, I exploit two types of fund picking strategies with either rule-based approach or machine learning methods and find that utilizing machine learning can deliver superior real-time economic gains for investors with fund short-term performance being the primary driver underlying predictability. Specifically, using variable selection methods such as LASSO and elastic net at individual predictor level can generate annual 1.3%-1.7% real-time alphas after adjusting for standard risk factors. The essay further examines whether real-world investors react to those well-known predictors when evaluating mutual fund performance. Using a novel approach to decomposing fund returns, I find that conditional on investors' usage of CAPM, investors react to the components of CAPM alpha implied by predictors in different ways, and investor reaction to predictive information embedded in predictors is stronger within aggressive growth funds. These results provide empirical support for Gârleanu and Pedersen (2018) and suggest ex ante predictability exists not due to lack of investor reaction but as the compensation for employing costly algorithms to identify skilled managers.The second essay examines how decision-making hierarchy in team-managed U.S. equity mutual funds affects their performance and risk-taking behavior. Employing a unique hand-collected dataset, we find that vertically-managed funds with lead managers earn 75 bps per year lower Fama-French five-factor alpha than their horizontally-managed counterparts. Moreover, vertically-managed funds hold less concentrated portfolios and are exposed to lower residual risk, thus showing signs of inferior security selection ability. Using mutual fund industry as a laboratory, the second essay provides evidence supporting a horizontal decision-making structure in organizations functioning in an uncertain expectation environment. These results echo similar mechanisms as in recent cross-country studies on the benefits of democratic form of government for country's economic growth"--

The Economics of Mutual Fund Markets: Competition Versus Regulation

The Economics of Mutual Fund Markets: Competition Versus Regulation
Author: William Baumol
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 250
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9400921853

The original impetus for this research was provided several years ago by a request to assist Counsel for Fidelity Management and Research Corporation in analyzing the mutual fund industry, with particular emphasis on money market mutual funds. We were asked to focus our efforts on the mechanism by which the advisory fees of mutual funds are determined. This request arose out of litigation that challenged the level of advisory fees charged to the shareholders of the Fidelity Cash Reserve Fund. Subsequently, we were asked to provide similar assistance to Counsel for T. Rowe Price Associates regarding the fees charged to shareholders of their Prime Reserve Fund. 1940, advisers of Under the Investment Company Act of mutual funds have a fiduciary duty with respect to the level of fees they may charge a fund's shareholders. Since the passage of the Investment Company Act, there have been numerous lawsuits brought by shareholders alleging that advisory fees were excessive. In these lawsuits, the courts have failed to provide a set of standards for determining when such fees are excessive. Instead, they have relied on arbitrary and frequently ill-defined criteria for jUdging the reasonableness of fees. This failure to apply economic-based tests for evaluating the fee structure of mutual funds provided the motivation for the present book, which undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the economics of the mutual fund industry.

On Predictability Of Mutual Funds Return

On Predictability Of Mutual Funds Return
Author: Pradeep Kumar Panda
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN: 9783659219177

Mutual Funds in recent past as a channel of resource mobilization has gained immense importance in general and in India in particular. Common indicators of business and monetary conditions, the lagged mutual-fund-risk premium, and the market- risk premium, are used to predict mutual-fund returns for a time horizon of one- day. In isolation, each of the four predictors significantly forecast mutual-fund returns from April 2008 to March 2011 for Indian market. The indicator of monetary conditions, i.e. the MIBOR premium, is found to have the strongest forecast power. Multivariate analysis confirm that the four predictors are indeed strong forecasters of mutual fund returns. Moreover, the MIBOR premium, the term premium, and the lagged mutual-fund-risk premium all emerge as the best and most consistent predictors of mutual fund returns. The market-risk premium is found to be good but less consistent as predictors of mutual-fund returns.

Essays on Mutual Funds

Essays on Mutual Funds
Author: Xiang Kang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 270
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation is composed of two empirical studies on mutual funds. Chapter 1 studies the implication of the timing of mutual fund entry for subsequent long-term fund performance. As fund companies choose when to open new funds and what investment styles they practice, these choices may be informative about the fund qualities. I empirically explore the relation between entrant fund performance and past style performance. By examining a sample of 2,801 mutual fund entrant during the period of 1991--2015, I find that entrant funds with investment styles that have recently performed well tend to underperform in the future. The post-entry performance of hot style entrants is worse than both the post-entry performance of cold style entrants and the concurrent performance of incumbents in the same style categories. The empirical findings are unlikely to be driven by stock-level return reversals or competition among mutual funds, but consistent with fund investors practicing style investing and extrapolating their beliefs on style returns, leading to lower entry thresholds for fund managers in hot investment styles. Chapter 2 includes my joint work with David Xiaoyu Xu on how regulations in the Chinese stock market can affect investor behavior in the mutual fund market. We show that trading suspension, a regulatory policy on stock trading activities, gives rise to stale mutual fund NAVs and indirectly affects fund investors' behavior. Using a sample of 3,205 long-term trading suspension events in China during 2004--2018, we find that opportunistic investors combine firm-specific news and fund portfolio reports to make investment decisions. Quarterly fund flows positively respond to suspended portfolio stocks' unrealized impact on fund NAVs. Such responses are stronger for impactful good news, and portfolio disclosure plays a key role in this mechanism. Our findings suggest the need for a better integrated financial regulatory framework in emerging markets