Essays on Macroeconomics and Financial Econometrics

Essays on Macroeconomics and Financial Econometrics
Author: Na Jiang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation includes two chapters. The first chapter focuses on the asset pricing implication of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model with incomplete asset markets. The second chapter provides a new explanation for the labor share decline in the US manufacturing sector. Chapter 1 This chapter evaluates the asset pricing implication of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model with incomplete asset markets. Instead of measuring risk by the covariance of an asset's return and the representative household's marginal rate of substitution, I measure risk by the covariance of an asset's return and the stochastic discount factor that depends on higher-order moments of the cross-sectional distribution of individual household's consumption. While the representative household's marginal rate of substitution explains little of the variation in average returns across the 25 Fama-French portfolios, I find that the stochastic discount factor expressed as the average of individual households' marginal rate of substitution could explain more than 20% of this variation based on 1982-2017 Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Chapter 2 Marketing labor cost accounts for a substantial fraction of total labor costs in the US manufacturing sector, and previous research has argued that firms enjoy higher operating efficiency when selling to fewer, larger customers. To study the effect of customer choice and the associated marketing labor cost on the upstream industry's labor share, this paper develops a tractable model in which upstream firms incur a fixed relationship cost (marketing labor cost) to match with each downstream customer, choose an optimal number of customers, and hire production workers in a frictional labor market. Fit to the customer records of US manufacturing firms in Compustat, the model captures the key cross-sectional relationship between customer reliance (sales share from dominant buyers), sales, and operating efficiency. In the calibration, a mean-preserving demand concentration shock that captures 43% of the rise in customer reliance can explain 39% of the decline in labor share in US manufacturing from the 1990s to the 2000s. The mechanism is that when the downstream demand becomes more concentrated among fewer and larger firms, on average upstream firms optimally sell to fewer customers and reduce their marketing labor cost, which in turn leads to the rise of customer reliance and decline of labor share observed in the data.

Macroeconomic Analysis

Macroeconomic Analysis
Author: David Currie
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 360
Release: 2015-09-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317377680

Bringing together the proceedings of the 1979 and 1980 annual conferences of the Association of University Teachers of Economics the papers in this volume discuss: the effect of social security on private saving; an analysis of aggregate consumer behaviour; the philosophy and objectives of econometrics and other topics in macroeconomic and econometric analysis.

Managing Global Money

Managing Global Money
Author: Graham Bird
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 308
Release: 1988-05-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1349095885

This collection of articles and papers has been organised under a limited number of specific themes in international financial economics, including balance of payment theory and policy, the activities of the IMF, Special Drawing Rights, the role of the private financial markets, and the international economic order. A unifying theme running through all the essays is that some degree of management of international financial affairs is desirable. The book has a strong policy orientation and should be of interest to students and practitioners of international financial economics alike.

Essays in Macroeconomics and Financial Economics

Essays in Macroeconomics and Financial Economics
Author: Edison Guozhu Yu
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay, entitled "Dynamic Market Participation and Endogenous Information Aggregation", studies information aggregation in financial markets with recurrent investor exit and entry. The paper considers a dynamic general equilibrium model of asset trading with private information and collateral constraints. Investors differ in their aversion to Knightian uncertainty: when uncertainty is high, some investors exit the market. Since exiting investors' information is not fully revealed by prices, conditional return volatility and risk premia both increase. I use data on institutional investors' holdings of individual stocks to show that investor exit rates indeed comove with return volatility and help forecast it. The model also implies that exit is more likely when wealth is more concentrated in the hands of less uncertainty averse investors. The model thus predicts more exit toward the end of a long boom, as seen in the data. Moreover, economies with looser collateral constraints should see more volatility due to exit and partial revelation. The second essay, entitled "The (Un)importance of Mobility in the Great Recession", is based on a paper co-authored with Siddharth Kothari and Itay Saporta-Eksten. Unemployment during and after the Great Recession has been persistently high. One concern is that the housing bust reduced mobility and prevented workers from moving for jobs. The paper characterizes flows out of unemployment that are related to mobility to construct an upper bound on the effect of mobility on unemployment between 2007 and 2012. The effect of mobility is always small: Using pre-recession mobility rates, decreased mobility can account for only an 11 basis points increase in the unemployment rate over the period. Using dynamics of renter mobility in this period to calculate homeowner counterfactual mobility, can account for an 8 basis points increase. Using the highest mobility rate observed in the data, reduced mobility accounts for only a 34 basis points increase in the unemployment rate. The third essay, entitled "Long-term Bonds in a Housing Model", looks into a housing model where mortgages are modeled as a long-term bond. Most house purchases in the US are financed through a mortgage with maturity between 15 and 30 years. This essay studies house price dynamics when modeling mortgages as long-term bonds instead of the more standard one-period bond. With this new feature in the model, results show that the equilibrium price-rent ratio and mortgages borrowing are much less sensitive to changes in the interest rates. In addition, the model can generate negative equity, which matches the presence of negative equity in the housing market downturn in data.

Financial Conditions and Macroeconomic Performance

Financial Conditions and Macroeconomic Performance
Author: Steven M. Fazzari
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 209
Release: 2015-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317470575

This collection of papers on financial instability and its impact on macroeconomic performance honours Hyman P. Minsky and his lifelong work. It is based on a conference at Washington University, St. Louis, in 1990 and includes among the authors Benjamin M. Friedman, Charles P. Kindleberger, Jan Kregel and Steven Fazzari. These papers consider Minsky's definitive analysis that yields such a clear and disturbing sequence of financial events: booms, government intervention to prevent debt contraction and new booms that cause a progressive buildup of new debt, eventually leaving the economy much more fragile financially.

Money, Macroeconomics, and Economic Policy

Money, Macroeconomics, and Economic Policy
Author: William C. Brainard
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 392
Release: 1991
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262023252

These original contributions celebrate and extend Tobin's contributions to macroeconomics, international economics, finance, and economic policy.

The Collected Essays of Richard E. Quandt

The Collected Essays of Richard E. Quandt
Author: Richard E. Quandt
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 876
Release: 1992-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781782543176

Professor Richard Quandt has made a major contribution to the development of economics in the 20th century. The range and significance of his work has long required a collection of his essays which will allow his contribution to be assessed as a whole. Despite an early interest in microeconomic theory, Richard Quandt has devoted most of his career to econometrics and, in particular, modal split estimation. More recently his work has focused on the econometrics of disequilibrium models with reference to both free market and planned economies. As well as outlining his many articles in microtheory, general econometrics, disequilibrium modeling, financial economics and the economics of planned economies, this collection should have a particular value for all scholars interested in the emergence of the new economies in Eastern Europe, a subject to which Professor Quandt has applied himself in recent years. This book includes an introduction by Professor Quandt describing his early life in Budapest and the circumstances which led him to study economics in America.

Nonlinear Economic Dynamics and Financial Modelling

Nonlinear Economic Dynamics and Financial Modelling
Author: Roberto Dieci
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 384
Release: 2014-07-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319074709

This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly rational heterogeneous agents to estimation, time series modelling and empirical analysis and from risk management of interest-rate products, futures price volatility and American option pricing with stochastic volatility to evaluation of risk and derivatives of electricity market. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in these areas and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and financial market modelling, to mathematicians who are interested in applying complexity theory to economics and finance and to market practitioners and researchers in quantitative finance interested in limit order, futures and electricity market modelling, derivative pricing and risk management.

Essays in Macroeconomics of an Open Economy

Essays in Macroeconomics of an Open Economy
Author: Franz Gehrels
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 194
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642956599

The large aggregates in the economy - consumption, investment, production of the domestic and the international sectors, international capital flows, financial accumulation and indebtedness - are analysed in this book as problems in time-optimisation for enterprises and households. The effects of fiscal and monetary policies along with exchange-rate variation are examined, and their simultaneous use for stabilizing demand are found to be necessary. All household decisions on consumptions, savings, and financial disposition are conditioned by uncertainty, and similarly for firms, who make more complex simultaneous decisions on production, real investment, financing, and market strategy. The marginal efficiency-of-investment function derived from these decisions is fundamentally different from the marginal productivity of capital in the neoclassical sense. An economy which grows through the accumulation of capital, increase in labor supply, and technological progress is the framework in which all of these variables move. This codetermines the allocation of factors between domestic and international production, and the development of foreign trade. The growth both of the public debt and of international investment are treated in depth.