Essays on Labor Markets, Monetary Policy, and Uncertainty

Essays on Labor Markets, Monetary Policy, and Uncertainty
Author: Neil Ware White (IV)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 276
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation examines the impacts on the labor market of monetary policy and macroeconomic uncertainty. The first chapter examines how monetary policy shocks in the U.S. affect the flows of workers among three labor market categories--employment, unemployment, and non-participation--and assesses each flow's relative importance to changes in labor market "stock'' variables like the unemployment rate. I find that job loss accounts for the largest portion of monetary policy's effect on labor markets. I develop a New Keynesian model that incorporates these channels and show how a central bank can achieve welfare gains from targeting job loss, rather than output, in an otherwise standard Taylor rule. The second chapter examines the role of monetary policy in "job polarization.'' I argue that contractionary monetary policy has accelerated the decline of employment in routine occupations, which largely affected workers with a high-school degree but no college. In part by disproportionately affecting industries with high shares of routine occupations, contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to large and persistent shifts away from routine employment. Expansionary shocks, on the other hand, have little effect on these industries. Indeed, monetary policy's effect on overall employment is concentrated in routine jobs. These results highlight monetary policy's role in generating fluctuations not only in the level of employment, but also the composition of employment across occupations and industries. The third chapter introduces new direct measures of uncertainty derived from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The series underlying these new measures are more strongly correlated with economic activity than many other series that are the basis for uncertainty proxies. The survey also facilitates comparison with response dispersion or disagreement, a commonly used proxy for uncertainty in the literature. Dispersion measures have low or negative correlation with direct measures of uncertainty and often have causal effects of opposite sign, suggesting that they are poor proxies for uncertainty. For the measures based on series most closely correlated with economic activity, positive uncertainty shocks are mildly expansionary. This result is robust across identification and estimation strategies and is consistent with "growth options'' theories of the effects of uncertainty.

Three Essays on Labor Market Frictions Under Firm Entry and Financial Business Cycles

Three Essays on Labor Market Frictions Under Firm Entry and Financial Business Cycles
Author: Jeremy Rastouil
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

During the Great Recession, the interactions between housing, labor and entry highlight the existence of narrow propagation channels between these markets. The aim of this thesis is to shed a light on labor market interactions with firm entry and financial business cycles, by building on the recent theoretical and empirical of DSGE models. In the first chapter, we have found evidence of the key role of the net entry as an amplifying mechanism for employment dynamics. Introducing search and matching frictions, we have studied from a new perspective the cyclicality of the mark-up compared to previous researches that use Walrasian labor market. We found a less countercyclical markup due to the acyclical aspect of the marginal cost in the DMP framework and a reduced role according to firm's entry in the cyclicality of the markup. In the second chapter, we have linked the borrowing capacity of households to their employment situation on the labor market. With this new microfoundation of the collateral constraint, new matches on the labor market translate into more mortgages, while separation induces an exclusion from financial markets for jobseekers. As a result, the LTV becomes endogenous by responding procyclically to employment fluctuations. We have shown that this device is empirically relevant and solves the anomalies of the standard collateral constraint. In the last chapter, we extend the analysis developed in the previous one by integrating collateral constrained firms in order to have a more complete financial business cycle. The first result is that an entrepreneur collateral constraint integrating capital, real commercial estate and wage bill in advance is empirically relevant compared to the collateral literature associated to the labor market which does not consider these three assets. The second finding is the role of the housing price and credit squeezes in the rise of the unemployment rate during the Great Recession. The last two chapters have important implications for economic policy. A structural deregulation reform in the labor market induces a significant rise in the debt level for households and housing price, combined with a substantial rise of firm debt. Our approach allows us to reveal that a macroprudential policy aiming to tighten the LTV ratio for household borrowers has positive effects in the long run for output and employment, while tightening LTV ratios for entrepreneurs leads to the opposite effect.

Labor Markets and Business Cycles

Labor Markets and Business Cycles
Author: Robert Shimer
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 189
Release: 2010-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400835232

Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.

Emerging Market Business Cycles

Emerging Market Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Emine Boz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2012-10-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 147551249X

Emerging economies are characterized by higher consumption and real wage variability relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions and countercyclical interest rate shocks can jointly account for these regularities. In the face of countercyclical interest rate shocks, search-matching frictions increase future employment uncertainty, improving workers’ incentive to save and generating a greater response of consumption and the current account. Higher consumption response in turn feeds into larger fluctuations in the workers’ bargaining power while the interest rates shocks lead to variations in the firms’ willingness to hire; both of which contribute to a highly variable real wage.

Essays in Labor Market Dynamics and Policy Implications During COVID-19 and Beyond

Essays in Labor Market Dynamics and Policy Implications During COVID-19 and Beyond
Author: Lien Ta
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre: COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-
ISBN:

This thesis comprises three chapters that delve into various labor market dynamics and the policy implications in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. In the first chapter (joint with Andre Kurmann and Etienne Lale), we investigate the dynamics of small businesses and employment using real-time data from the private sector throughout the COVID-19 crisis. The pandemic has led to an explosion of research using private-sector data to measure small business activity. Yet important questions remain about sample representativeness and how to identify business openings and closings. We propose new methods to address these issues by exploiting information on business activity from Google, Facebook, and Safegraph. We apply our methods to Homebase data and show that the resulting estimates closely fit official statistics. We then use the data to study whether small businesses have been hit harder by the pandemic and the extent to which the Paycheck Protection Program helped mitigate these effects. The second chapter (joint with Andreas Hornstein, Marios Karabarbounis, Andre Kurmann, Etienne Lale) focus on the effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. UI acts as both a disincentive for labor supply and as a stimulus for labor demand. In equilibrium, the two effects combine, which may explain why several studies have found only small negative effects of the generous UI expansions during the pandemic on job finding rates and employment. In this paper we propose a new research design to estimate independently the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment benefits. Using high-frequency worker-firm matched data from Homebase, we document that employment of low-wage businesses recovered more slowly from the initial pandemic shock than neighboring high-wage businesses, and that this recovery gap is significantly related to the relative generosity of UI benefits. By comparing neighboring businesses that are largely sharing the benefits of the local UI stimulus, our research design identifies more closely the disincentive effects of pandemic UI benefits. We use an equilibrium model of labor search with heterogeneity in firms and workers to translate the reduced-form estimate of the recovery gap into an unemployment duration elasticity and an aggregate employment loss. Our model, which captures well the recovery gap between low- and high-wage businesses, implies relatively low duration elasticities. Yet, the sheer size and multitude of the pandemic programs implies that the disincentive effects arising from the pandemic UI benefits are substantial and amount to 5 percent of normal employment. The third chapter studies work-from-home (WFH) work mode's implications on labor market. The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a widespread adoption of WFH practices and accelerated the advancement of remote work technologies. Surprisingly, even after the pandemic has subsided, a substantial shift towards WFH remains evident among workers. However, the accessibility to WFH is not uniform across all types of workers. Notably, high-tech industries, characterized by a predominantly high-skilled workforce, exhibit a higher prevalence of WFH. This raises concerns about the effects of WFH on workers employed in industries where remote work is unfeasible. In this paper, I develop a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates WFH to examine the implications on workers' mobility, local market outcomes, and overall welfare. I find 3 key insights: (1) there is a productivity threshold for WFH adoption, (2) there is a one-way dependence of low-skilled workers on high-skilled workers' mobility, and (3) if workers are fully mobile, both types of workers benefit from the introduction of WFH.

Essays on Labor Market Dynamics

Essays on Labor Market Dynamics
Author: Christina Hyde Patterson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 287
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis consists of three chapters on labor market dynamics. In the first chapter, I show empirically that the unequal incidence of recessions is a core channel through which aggregate shocks are amplified. I show that the aggregate marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is larger when income shocks disproportionately hit high-MPC individuals, and I define the Matching Multiplier as the increase in the output multiplier originating from the matching of workers to jobs with different income elasticities - a greater matching multiplier translates into more powerful amplification in a range of business cycle models. Using administrative data from the United States, I document that the earnings of individuals with a higher marginal propensity to consume are more exposed to recessions. I show that this covariance between worker MPCs and the elasticity of their earnings to GDP is large enough to increase shock amplification by 40 percent over a benchmark in which all workers are equally exposed. Using local labor market variation, I validate this amplification mechanism by showing that areas with higher matching multipliers experience larger employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Lastly, I derive a generalization of the matching multiplier in an incomplete markets model and show numerically that this mechanism is quantitatively similar within this structural framework. In the second chapter, joint with David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence Katz, and John Van Reenen, we explore the well-documented fall of labor's share of GDP in the United States and many other countries. Existing empirical assessments typically rely on industry or macro data, obscuring heterogeneity among firms. In this paper, we analyze micro panel data from the U.S. Economic Census since 1982 and document empirical patterns to assess a new interpretation of the fall in the labor share based on the rise of "superstar firms." If globalization or technological changes advantage the most productive firms in each industry, product market concentration will rise as industries become increasingly dominated by superstar firms. Since these firms have high markups and a low labor share of firm value-added and sales, this depresses the aggregate labor share. We empirically assess seven predictions of this hypothesis: (i) industry sales will increasingly concentrate in a small number of firms; (ii) industries where concentration rises most will have the largest declines in the labor share; (iii) the fall in the labor share will be driven largely by reallocation rather than a fall in the unweighted mean labor share across all firms; (iv) the between-firm reallocation component of the fall in the labor share will be greatest in the sectors with the largest increases in market concentration; (v) the industries that are becoming more concentrated will exhibit faster growth of productivity and innovation; (vi) the aggregate markup will rise more than the unweighted firm markup; and (vii) these patterns should be observed not only in U.S. firms, but also internationally. We find support for all of these predictions. In the third chapter, I explore how the distribution of tasks across industries affects labor market responses to shocks. I present a model in which task-level wages connect industries employing the same tasks, meaning that the distribution of tasks across industries insures some workers against shocks and alters their labor market experiences. Workers trained in more dispersed tasks (e.g. accountants) face less unemployment risk from industry-specific shocks than workers who do tasks that are concentrated in few industries (e.g. petroleum engineers). Using industry and regional data, I show empirical evidence that supports the model's predictions - industries that employ more specialized labor contract less in response to demand shocks than industries with less specialized labor. JEL Classifications: E21, J23, D33