Essays on Volatility Risk, Asset Returns and Consumption-based Asset Pricing

Essays on Volatility Risk, Asset Returns and Consumption-based Asset Pricing
Author: Young Il Kim
Publisher:
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2008
Genre: Assets (Accounting)
ISBN:

Abstract: My dissertation addresses two main issues regarding asset returns: econometric modeling of asset returns in chapters 2 and 3 and puzzling features of the standard consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) in chapters 4 and 5. Chapter 2 develops a new theoretical derivation for the GARCH-skew-t model as a mixture distribution of normal and inverted-chi-square in order to represent the three important stylized facts of financial data: volatility clustering, skewness and thick-tails. The GARCH-skew-t is same as the GARCH-t model if the skewness parameter is shut-off. The GARCH-skew-t is applied to U.S. excess stock market returns, and the equity premium is computed based on the estimated model. It is shown that skewness and kurtosis can have significant effect on the equity premium and that with sufficiently negatively skewed distribution of the excess returns, a finite equity premium can be assured, contrary to the case of the Student t in which an infinite equity premium arises. Chapter 3 provides a new empirical guidance for modeling a skewed and thick-tailed error distribution along with GARCH effects based on the theoretical derivation for the GARCH-skew-t model and empirical findings on the Realized Volatility (RV) measure, constructed from the summation of higher frequency squared (demeaned) returns. Based on an 80-year sample of U.S. daily stock market returns, it is found that the distribution of monthly RV conditional on past returns is approximately the inverted-chi-square while monthly market returns, conditional on RV and past returns are normally distributed with RV in both mean and variance. These empirical findings serve as the building blocks underlying the GARCH-skew-t model. Thus, the findings provide a new empirical justification for the GARCH-skew-t modeling of equity returns. Moreover, the implied GARCH-skew-t model accurately represents the three important stylized facts for equity returns. Chapter 4 provides a possible solution to asset return puzzles such as high equity premium and low riskfree rate based on parameter uncertainty. It is shown that parameter uncertainty underlying the data generating process can lead to a negatively skewed and thick-tailed distribution that can explain most of the high equity premium and low riskfree rate even with the degree of risk aversion below 10 in the CRRA utility function. Chapter 5 investigates a possible link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic risk. This chapter studies why U.S. stock market volatility has not changed much during the "great moderation" era of the 1980s in contrast to the prediction made by the standard C-CAPM. A new model is developed such that aggregate consumption is decomposed into stock and non-stock source of income so that stock dividends are a small part of consumption. This new model predicts that the great moderation of macroeconomic risk must have originated from declining volatility of shocks to the relatively large non-stock factor of production while shocks to the relatively small stock assets have been persistently volatile during the moderation era. Furthermore, the model shows that the systematic risk of holding equity is positively associated with the stock share of total wealth.

Essays on Equilibrium Asset Pricing

Essays on Equilibrium Asset Pricing
Author: Aoxiang Yang (Ph.D.)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

My dissertation is developed to address unresolved issues in the asset pricing literature, focusing on both risk premium levels and dynamics. Chapter 1 addresses short-horizon risk premium dynamics. In the data, stock market volatility weakly or even negatively predicts short-run equity and variance risk premia, challenging positive risk-return trade-offs at the heart of leading asset pricing models. I show that a puzzling negative volatility-risk premia relationship concentrates in scattered high-uncertainty states, which occur about 20\% of the time. While at other times, the relationship is strongly positive. I develop a micro-founded learning model in which due to learning frictions investors underreact to structural breaks in high-volatility periods and overreact to transitory variance shocks in normal times. The model can successfully explain the novel time-varying volatility-risk premia relationship at short and long horizons. The model can further account for many other data features, such as a robust positive correlation between equity and variance risk premium, the leverage effect, and negative observations of equity and variance risk premia at the onsets of recessions. Chapter 2, coauthored with Professor Bjorn Eraker, focuse on equilibrium derivatives pricing. It is motivated by the observation that leading asset pricing models typically can not explain the levels or dynamics of VIX options prices. We develop a tractable equilibrium pricing model to explain observed characteristics in equity returns, VIX futures, S\&P 500 options, and VIX options data based on affine jump-diffusive state dynamics and representative agents endowed with Duffie-Epstein recursive preferences. A specific model aimed at capturing VIX options prices and other asset market data is shown to successfully replicate the salient features of consumption, dividends, and asset market data, including the first two moments of VIX futures returns, the average implied volatilities in SPX and VIX options, and first and higher-order moments of VIX options returns. In the data, we document a time variation in the shape of VIX option implied volatility and a time-varying hedging relationship between VIX and SPX options which our model both captures. Our model also matches many other asset pricing moments such as equity premia, variance risk premia, risk-free interest rates, and short-horizon return predictability. To derive our specific model, we first develop a general framework for pricing assets under recursive Duffie-Epstein preferences with IES set to one under the assumption that state variables follow affine jump diffusions, as in \citet{DPS00}. Relative to the literature, our framework has a clear marginal contribution that it is an endowment-based equilibrium model with (i) clearly stated affine state variable dynamics and (ii) precisely characterized equilibrium value function, risk-free rate, prices of risks, and risk-neutral state dynamics. We prove our state-price density is a precise $IES\to1$ limit of that approximately solved in \citet{ErakShal08}. The recursive preference assumption implies that higher-order conditional moments of the economic fundamental, such as its growth volatility and volatility-of-volatility, are explicitly priced in equilibrium. Since VIX derivatives depend on these factors, this in turn implies that the former carry non-zero risk premia.

Two Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing

Two Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Yangqiulu Luo
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre: Finance
ISBN:

This dissertation consists of two essays on empirical asset pricing. The first essay examines if the idiosyncratic risk is priced. Theories such as Merton (1987) predict that idiosyncratic risk should be priced when investors do not diversify their portfolio. However, the previous literature has presented a mixed set of results of the pricing of idiosyncratic risk. We find strong evidence that idiosyncratic risk is priced differently across bull and bear markets. For the sample period from June 1946 to the end of 2010, a factor portfolio long on stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility and short on stocks with low idiosyncratic volatility yields an equal-weighted monthly return of 1.59% for bull markets but -1.29% for bear markets. These evidences support the hypothesis that investors are rewarded for betting on individual stocks during bull markets and holding more diversified portfolios during bear markets. The second essay examines the role of the limits to arbitrage in the negative effect of liquidity on subsequent stock returns. I hypothesize that if the negative effect persists because of the limits to arbitrage, the effect should be more pronounced when there are more severe limits to arbitrage. My empirical evidence supports the hypothesis. In addition, I find that the effect of the limits to arbitrage on the liquidity anomaly is not correlated to the liquidity risk.

Three Essays on Asset Pricing and Risk Management

Three Essays on Asset Pricing and Risk Management
Author: Zhijiang Huang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 127
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

Three topics are studied. Firstly, we consider a general modeling framework by assigning arbitrage-free dynamics to an admissible set of forward swap rates. Connection with graph theory allows us to graphically characterize the admissible set and determine the number of distinct admissible models. Three specifications of pratical interests, namely co-terminal, co-initial and co-sliding swap market models, are identified. In particular, ctSMM enjoys the same degreee of tractability as LMM, and we propose a fast and robuste calibration scheme for it. Secondly, we derive analytical approximations by solving the PDE mapping between implied volatility and local volatility using two methods, namely local expansion and global iteration methods. Numerical studies show that these approximations are indeed quite accurate and the best among the existing ones. Lastly, we develop an accurate and efficient scheme to compute the tail probability or VaR of a collateralized loan portfolio owned by a bank.

Essays in Asset Pricing and Institutional Investors

Essays in Asset Pricing and Institutional Investors
Author: Qi Shang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

The thesis includes three papers: 1. Limited Arbitrage Analysis of CDS Basis Trading By modeling time-varying funding costs and demand pressure as the limits to arbitrage, the paper shows that assets with identical cash-flows have not only different expected returns, but also different expected returns in excess of funding costs. I solve the model in closed-form to show that the arbitrage on the CDS and corporate bond market is a risky arbitrage. The sign of the expected excess return of the arbitrage is decided by the sign and size of market frictions rather than the observed price discrepancy. The size and risk of the arbitrage excess return are increasing in market friction levels and assets' maturities. High levels of market frictions also destruct the positive predictability of credit spread term structure on credit spread changes. Results from the empirical section support the above-mentioned model predictions. 2. General Equilibrium Analysis of Stochastic Benchmarking This paper applies a closed-form continuous-time consumption-based general equilibrium model to analyze the equilibrium implications when some agents in the economy promise to beat a stochastic benchmark at an intermediate date. For very risky benchmark, these agents increase volatility and risk premium in the equilibrium. On the other hand, when they promise to beat less risky benchmark, they decrease volatility and risk premium in the equilibrium. In both cases, the degree of effect is state-dependent and stock price rises. 3. Institutional Asset Pricing with Heterogenous Belief (Co-authored) We propose an equilibrium asset pricing model in which investors with heterogeneous beliefs care about relative performance. We find that the relative performance concern leads agents to trade more similarly, which has two effects. First, similar trading directly decreases volatility. Second, similar trading decreases the impact of the dominant agents. When the economy is extremely good or bad, the second effect is dominant so that the relative performance concern enlarges the excess volatility caused by heterogeneous beliefs. When the first effect is dominant, which corresponds to a normal economy, the volatility is lower than without the relative performance concern. Moreover, this paper shows that the relative performance concern also influences investors' holdings, stock prices and risk premia.