Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing

Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: John Robert Vogel
Publisher:
Total Pages: 242
Release: 2014
Genre: Assets (Accounting)
ISBN:

This dissertation includes three essays of empirical asset pricing. In the first essay, The Value/Growth Anomaly and Hard to Value Firms, I show that combining quality signals (firm fundamentals) and hard to value measures increases the return spread between value and growth portfolios. A portfolio that is long high quality value firms that are hard to value and short low quality growth firms that are hard to value yields a 4-factor alpha of up to 1.41% per month. Second, ex-ante observed quality signals are better at predicting high performance and low performance growth stocks as compared to value stocks. This growth stock mispricing can be explained by extreme quality measures, and enhanced by focusing on hard to value growth firms. In the second essay, Using Maximum Drawdowns to Capture Tail Risk, I, along with my co-author Wesley R. Gray, propose the use of maximum drawdown, the maximum peak to trough loss across a time series of compounded returns, as a simple method to capture an element of risk unnoticed by linear factor models: tail risk. Unlike other tail-risk metrics, maximum drawdown is intuitive and easy-to-calculate. We look at maximum drawdowns to assess tail risks associated with market neutral strategies identified in the academic literature. Our evidence suggests that academic anomalies are not anomalous: all strategies endure large drawdowns at some point in the time series. Many of these losses would trigger margin calls and investor withdrawals, forcing an investor to liquidate. In the third essay, Analyzing Valuation Measures: A Performance Horse Race over the Past 40 Years, I, along with my co-author Wesley R. Gray, show that EBITDA/TEV has historically been the best performing valuation metric and outperforms many investor favorites such as price-to-earnings, free-cash-flow to total enterprise value, and book-to-market. We also explore the investment potential of long-term valuation ratios, which replaces one-year earnings with an average of long-term earnings. In contrast to prior empirical work, we find that long-term ratios add little investment value over standard one-year valuation metrics.

Essays in Asset Pricing

Essays in Asset Pricing
Author: Darien Huang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 332
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

In the first chapter "Gold, Platinum, and Expected Stock Returns", I show that the ratio of gold to platinum prices (GP) reveals variation in risk and proxies for an important economic state variable. GP predicts future stock returns in the time-series and explains variation in average stock returns in the cross-section. GP outperforms existing predictors and similar patterns are found in international markets. GP is persistent and significantly correlated with option-implied tail risk measures. An equilibrium model featuring recursive preferences, time-varying tail risk, and shocks to preferences for gold and platinum can account for the asset pricing dynamics of equity, gold, and platinum markets, and quantitatively explain the return predictability.

Essays in Asset Pricing

Essays in Asset Pricing
Author: Junxiong Gao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation comprises three papers examining questions in asset pricing, investigating the implications of new asset pricing theories on the cross-section and time series of asset prices. The papers are as follows: Chapter 1 studies how the fat-tailed distribution of US firm size generates extra risk premiums compared to the classical theory. The author refers to this fat tail as "granularity" and shows that it breaks the diversification of idiosyncratic risks assumed by arbitrage pricing theory (APT) to imply factor models. In the cross-section, large firms have higher idiosyncratic risk premiums than small firms despite having a lower level of risk. This finding explains the negative relation between idiosyncratic risk and risk premium, known as the "idiosyncratic risk premium puzzle." On aggregate, the level of granularity, measured by the Pareto distribution, explains market expected returns since it determines the under-diversification of idiosyncratic risk. Chapter 2 (joint work with Rossen Valkanov and Yan Xu) investigates the joint dynamics and predictability of asset returns for the equity, treasury, and foreign asset investment sectors, utilizing their respective valuation ratios constructed from their intertemporal budget constraints. We propose a new framework that enforces an aggregate accounting identity of the three sectors using a constrained estimation by the GMM method, which accounts for the cyclical movement of the whole economy. Our key finding shows that the government surplus-to-debt ratio negatively predicts the risk premium in the equity and foreign asset investment sectors. Our results suggest that incorporating data from all three sectors and imposing aggregate budget constraints can help to better identify how the fiscal policy adjustment channel propagates throughout the economy. Chapter 3 presents a model for modeling the correlation dynamics of stock returns using a conditional factor model. In this model, the employment of factors helps to reduce the estimation dimension by presenting the asset returns' covariance matrix as a quadratic function of the conditional covariance with factors. The factor structure allows for a closed-form solution for the inverse and determinant of the covariance matrix, which is convenient for computing the likelihood function and allocating a minimum variance portfolio. The model accurately fits the realized correlation among S&P 500 stocks computed from 5-minute data. It also generates out-of-sample minimum variance portfolios with a higher information ratio.

Two Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing

Two Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing
Author: Yangqiulu Luo
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre: Finance
ISBN:

This dissertation consists of two essays on empirical asset pricing. The first essay examines if the idiosyncratic risk is priced. Theories such as Merton (1987) predict that idiosyncratic risk should be priced when investors do not diversify their portfolio. However, the previous literature has presented a mixed set of results of the pricing of idiosyncratic risk. We find strong evidence that idiosyncratic risk is priced differently across bull and bear markets. For the sample period from June 1946 to the end of 2010, a factor portfolio long on stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility and short on stocks with low idiosyncratic volatility yields an equal-weighted monthly return of 1.59% for bull markets but -1.29% for bear markets. These evidences support the hypothesis that investors are rewarded for betting on individual stocks during bull markets and holding more diversified portfolios during bear markets. The second essay examines the role of the limits to arbitrage in the negative effect of liquidity on subsequent stock returns. I hypothesize that if the negative effect persists because of the limits to arbitrage, the effect should be more pronounced when there are more severe limits to arbitrage. My empirical evidence supports the hypothesis. In addition, I find that the effect of the limits to arbitrage on the liquidity anomaly is not correlated to the liquidity risk.

Essays in Risk Modeling, Asset Pricing and Network Measurement in Finance

Essays in Risk Modeling, Asset Pricing and Network Measurement in Finance
Author: Bixi Jian
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

"Modelling financial interconnections and forecasting extreme losses are crucial for risk management in financial markets. This thesis studies multivariate risk spillovers at the high-dimensional market network level, as well as univariate extreme risk modelling at the asset level. The first chapter proposes a novel time series econometric method to measure high-dimensional directed and weighted market network structures. Direct and spillover effects at different horizons, between nodes and between groups, are measured in a unified framework. Using a similar network measurement framework, the second chapter investigates the relationship between stock illiquidity spillovers and the cross-section of expected returns. I find that central industries in illiquidity transmission networks earn higher average stock returns (around 4% per year) than other industries.The third chapter proposes a new Dynamic Stable GARCH model, which involves the use of stable distribution with time-dependent tail parameters to model and forecast tail risks in an extremely high volatility environment. We can differentiate extreme risks from normal market fluctuations with this model." --