Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies
Author: Lionel Halpern
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 1996-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145185479X

A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts and offers estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on an international comparison of dollar wages and on a study of the dynamics of real exchange rates in several transition economies. The results suggest that the process of real appreciation is a combination of a return to equilibrium following the early overshooting and equilibrium appreciation.

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries
Author: Byung-Yeon Kim
Publisher:
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN: 9789516868472

We use a dynamic heterogeneous panel model to estimate real equilibrium exchange rates for advanced transition countries. Our method is based on out-of-sample estimations from middle-income and high-income countries, and we use a pooled mean group estimator. We find that exchange rates have converged in recent years in five transition countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) with real equilibrium exchange rates expressed in the US dollars. However, we also find that the currencies of the transition countries studied are substantially overvalued if real effective exchange rates are used. Published in: Economic Systems vol 29, no 2 (2005), pp. 144-162, ISSN 0939-3625.

Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Competitiveness in Transition Economies

Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Competitiveness in Transition Economies
Author: Mario I. Blejer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 501
Release: 2007-08-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0585313466

Integrating transition economies into the global commercial and trade market system is a prolonged and risky process. This book is a collection of studies dealing with the different issues related to the liberalization of external relations in economies moving from a socialist to a market-based system The focus is on external sector developments, and the topics deal with balance of payments conditions, exchange rate policies and regimes, international competitiveness, international capital flows, trade, and other matters related to the integration of transition economies into the world economy. An understanding of the principles involved and of the experiences of both transition and advanced economies during this process is crucial to ensure its ultimate success. Written by internationally recognized scholars, the chapters cover these issues in a systematic manner. The first section treats current account developments, capital flows, and exchange rate policies in transition countries, the second section deals with specific issues related to international trade, and the final section consists of six specific country experiences. In this final section, a chapter dealing with the Russian Federation discusses the collapse of the ruble in August 1998.

Exchange Rate Misalignment

Exchange Rate Misalignment
Author: Lawrence E. Hinkle
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 638
Release: 1999
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 019521126X

The study cautiously identifies exchange rate misalignment as an important element in most of the exchange rate crises that plagued the developing world during the last decade. Given that the increasing integration of world capital markets, has escalated the costs of such crises, a broad consensus emerged in recent years, that the overriding objective of exchange rate policy in developing countries, should be to avoid episodes of prolonged, and substantial misalignment, i.e., situations in which the actual real exchange rate differs significantly from its long-run equilibrium value. It was the Bank's involvement in one such misalignment episode, that eventually led to this book. Following an overview on the concepts and measurement of exchange rate misalignment, its impact on the purchasing power parity, and the relationship between the external real exchange rate (RER), and the two-good internal RER for tradables non-tradables, the study presents methodologies - empirical applications - for estimating the RER equilibrium. The study reaches an optimistic conclusion - that enough is known to identify cases of misalignment, and be able to sound clear warning signals. The implication for exchange rate policy is that ignorance about the empirical value of the equilibrium exchange rate, cannot be used to clinch arguments for extreme exchange arrangements, such as clean floats, currency boards, and "dollarization."

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies
Author: Charles Wyplosz
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts and offers estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on an international comparison of dollar wages and on a study of the dynamics of real exchange rates in several transition economies. The results suggest that the process of real appreciation is a combination of a return to equilibrium following the early overshooting and equilibrium appreciation.

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
Total Pages: 110
Release: 1988
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.

Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Author: John Williamson
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Total Pages: 608
Release: 1994
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780881320763

The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.