Engineering Judgement and Risk

Engineering Judgement and Risk
Author: James Parkin
Publisher: Thomas Telford
Total Pages: 240
Release: 2000
Genre: Decision making
ISBN: 9780727728739

This work explores the nature of professional judgement and how it is used in planning, design and management. It is based on two decades of research on the psychology of judgement and its application in professional decision-making.

Degrees of Belief

Degrees of Belief
Author: Steven G. Vick
Publisher: ASCE Publications
Total Pages: 469
Release: 2002-01-01
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0784470863

Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 668
Release: 1994-01-01
Genre: Science
ISBN: 030904894X

The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Reliability and Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering

Reliability and Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering
Author: Gregory B. Baecher
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 618
Release: 2005-08-19
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0470871253

Risk and reliability analysis is an area of growing importance in geotechnical engineering, where many variables have to be considered. Statistics, reliability modeling and engineering judgement are employed together to develop risk and decision analyses for civil engineering systems. The resulting engineering models are used to make probabilistic predictions, which are applied to geotechnical problems. Reliability & Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering comprehensively covers the subject of risk and reliability in both practical and research terms * Includes extensive use of case studies * Presents topics not covered elsewhere--spatial variability and stochastic properties of geological materials * No comparable texts available Practicing engineers will find this an essential resource as will graduates in geotechnical engineering programmes.

Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis
Author: Anca M. Hanea
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 503
Release: 2021-02-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030464741

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

Foundations of Risk Analysis
Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 208
Release: 2004-01-09
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0470871237

Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Risk and Reliability in Ground Engineering

Risk and Reliability in Ground Engineering
Author: Institution of Civil Engineers (Great Britain)
Publisher: Thomas Telford
Total Pages: 312
Release: 1994
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780727719867

This book has been specially divided into studies on understanding, recognizing, evaluating and managing risk, and the issues are discussed both in theory and in practice. The design issues affecting risk are examined, and the types of ground conditions and their relative risks are compared - through both research and case histories), to make this an invaluable volume for anyone involved in ground engineering

Safety and environmental issues in rock engineering, volume 2

Safety and environmental issues in rock engineering, volume 2
Author: L.M. Ribeiro E Sousa
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 323
Release: 2022-06-03
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1351417835

State-of-the-art in science; engineering aspects of rock mechanics in the areas of safety ; environmental protection. Discusses various aspects concerning modelling in safety analysis, stability of underground structures, and the contribution of incident and accident cases to the progress of rock engineering activities. The influence of the environment is also considered, namely in heat ; mass transport, contaminant migration, and underground storage of waste; products.

Development and Application of Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants

Development and Application of Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants
Author: IAEA
Publisher: International Atomic Energy Agency
Total Pages: 289
Release: 2024-03-15
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 920130823X

The objective of this Safety Guide is to provide recommendations for meeting the requirements of GSR Part 4 (Rev. 1) in the development and application of Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) for nuclear power plants (NPPs). The recommendations provided in this publication promoting technical consistency among Level 1 PSA studies, in order to provide reliable support for applications of PSAs and risk informed decision making, particularly to support the design of NPPs and decision making during plant commissioning and operation. The revised Safety Guide's scope encompasses the main methodological aspects of PSA and in particular has been updated to reflect developments in specific areas, such as passive systems reliability, computer based systems reliability, combinations of hazards, human reliability analysis and to expand the scope of PSA to include site level risk considerations such as multi-unit and spent fuel pool PSA.