Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation

Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation
Author: Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2023-11-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.

The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition

The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition
Author: Manfred Hafner
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 398
Release: 2020-06-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 3030390667

The world is currently undergoing an historic energy transition, driven by increasingly stringent decarbonisation policies and rapid advances in low-carbon technologies. The large-scale shift to low-carbon energy is disrupting the global energy system, impacting whole economies, and changing the political dynamics within and between countries. This open access book, written by leading energy scholars, examines the economic and geopolitical implications of the global energy transition, from both regional and thematic perspectives. The first part of the book addresses the geopolitical implications in the world’s main energy-producing and energy-consuming regions, while the second presents in-depth case studies on selected issues, ranging from the geopolitics of renewable energy, to the mineral foundations of the global energy transformation, to governance issues in connection with the changing global energy order. Given its scope, the book will appeal to researchers in energy, climate change and international relations, as well as to professionals working in the energy industry.

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets
Author: Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 78
Release: 2023-10-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.

Windfall

Windfall
Author: Meghan L. O'Sullivan
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Total Pages: 480
Release: 2017-09-12
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 150110795X

Windfall is the boldest profile of the world’s energy resources since Daniel Yergin’s The Quest, asserting that the new energy abundance—due to oil and gas resources once deemed too expensive—is transforming the geo-political order and is boosting American power. “Riveting and comprehensive...a smart, deeply researched primer on the subject.” —The New York Times Book Review As a new administration focuses on driving American energy production, O’Sullivan’s “refreshing and illuminating” (Foreign Policy) Windfall describes how new energy realities have profoundly affected the world of international relations and security. New technologies led to oversupplied oil markets and an emerging natural gas glut. This did more than drive down prices—it changed the structure of markets and altered the way many countries wield power and influence. America’s new energy prowess has global implications. It transforms politics in Russia, Europe, China, and the Middle East. O’Sullivan considers the landscape, offering insights and presenting consequences for each region’s domestic stability as energy abundance upends traditional partnerships, creating opportunities for cooperation. The advantages of this new abundance are greater than its downside for the US: it strengthens American hard and soft power. This is “a powerful argument for how America should capitalise on the ‘New Energy Abundance’” (The Financial Times) and an explanation of how new energy realities create a strategic environment to America’s advantage.

Riding the Energy Transition

Riding the Energy Transition
Author: Reda Cherif
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2017-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484301242

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

Connectivity Wars

Connectivity Wars
Author: Mark Leonard
Publisher:
Total Pages: 221
Release: 2017-09
Genre: Economic development
ISBN: 9781910118559

Republic of Korea

Republic of Korea
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 103
Release: 2023-11-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Korea faced challenges from inflation, growth slowdown, and financial stress in the wake of the pandemic. Growth started to slow in mid-2022 as global demand for electronics waned and domestic demand weakened but has begun to gradually recover in recent quarters. Headline inflation has declined from last year’s peak, though core inflation has remained more persistent. Pockets of financial vulnerability have emerged, but swift policy measures have helped to stabilize financial and housing markets. Despite having increased, systemic financial risks appear to remain manageable.

Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries

Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2023-12-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.

Republic of Kazakhstan

Republic of Kazakhstan
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 65
Release: 2024-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Growth is estimated to have reached 4.8 percent in 2023 and is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024. Inflation declined to 9.8 percent in 2023, still well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)’s target of 5 percent. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The state’s footprint in the economy remains large and structural reform implementation has been slow in recent years. Despite strong buffers, the economy needs to be better prepared for future shocks in both the short term (e.g., from war spillovers, inflation, and global economic and financial conditions) and the medium term (e.g., from geo-economic fragmentation, climate events, and global decarbonization).

The Global Energy Transition

The Global Energy Transition
Author: Peter D Cameron
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
Total Pages: 272
Release: 2021-01-14
Genre: Law
ISBN: 1509932496

Global energy is on the cusp of change, and it has become almost a truism that energy is in transition. But what does this notion mean exactly? This book explores the working hypothesis that, characteristically, the energy system requires a strategy of the international community of states to deliver sustainable energy to which all have access. This strategy is for establishing rules-based governance of the global energy value-cycle. The book has four substantive parts that bring together contributions of leading experts from academia and practice on the law, policy, and economics of energy. Part I, 'The prospects of energy transition', critically discusses the leading forecasts for energy and the strategies that resource-rich countries may adopt. Part II, 'Rules-based multilateral governance of the energy sector', details the development and sources of rules on energy. Part III, 'Competition and regulation in transboundary energy markets', discusses principal instruments of rules-based governance of energy. Part IV, 'Attracting investments and the challenges of multi-level governance', focuses on the critical governance of the right investments. This book is a flagship publication of the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at the University of Dundee. It launches the Hart series 'Global Energy Law and Policy' and is edited by the series general editors Professors Peter D Cameron and Volker Roeben, and also Dr Xiaoyi Mu.