Do Not Blame Trade For The Decline In Manufacturing Jobs
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| Author | : Stephen J. Rose |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 14 |
| Release | : 2021 |
| Genre | : Commerce |
| ISBN | : |
The import problem is that anti-trader perspectives have focused on the several million jobs lost by manufacturing firms. As shown above, this is a small number, and the involuntary separations of American-based companies dwarf the negative effect of trade. The bottom line is that almost the entire decline from 32 percent of the labor force in 1955 to 8 percent in 2019 was not caused by imports but by higher productivity. This is a worldwide phenomenon, as even Germany and other countries with positive trade balances also had their shares of manufacturing employment suffer comparable declines. Job losses in Europe have been less contentious because European governments generally provide greater income and training support for displaced workers.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Many economic observers have recently exonerated international trade flows for the hemorrhaging job losses in the manufacturing sector of the United States, generally claiming that either changing demand patterns or rapid productivity growth are the cause of manufacturing's decline. But the evidence shows that trade imbalances in manufacturing have accounted for 59% of the decline in manufacturing employment since 1998. The manufacturing sector lost more than three million jobs between 1998 and 2003, with 2.7 million lost since the immediate pre-recession year of 2000. Roughly coinciding with this manufacturing employment loss, the trade deficit in manufactured goods increased by over $230 billion. The synchronicity of large-scale manufacturing job loss and growing trade deficits has led to a debate about whether international trade flows have contributed to the loss of manufacturing jobs.
| Author | : Brian Reinbold |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 3 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Economic analysis suggests that a trade war with China can neither stop the decline in American manufacturing employment nor eliminate the U.S. trade deficit, but it could significantly reduce the welfare of American consumers by making U.S. imports of Chinese goods more expensive. Moreover, it could cause the United States to lose its global leadership in free trade and globalization and facilitate China's rise as a world leader in trade and commerce. A better approach may be for policymakers to design policies that can ensure fair redistribution of the gains from free trade among American citizens and to reform the education system to prepare students for future jobs that require knowledge of automation and artificial intelligence.
| Author | : Serge L. Wind |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 71 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The long-term declining role of manufacturing in the U.S. economy - reflecting a shift of the economy after World War II to a post-industrial orientation with an increased emphasis on services - was accelerated by the effects on manufacturing jobs and trade deficits of President Reagan's budget deficits in the 1980s and China's recent trade penetration. Similarities of Reagan's policies to President Trump's proposed protectionist tariffs and the cross-border corporate tax reform advocated by House Republicans in February 2017 suggest a possible partial reversal of the long-term job decline, but the ensuing major dislocations in jobs are unlikely to lead to a net increase in manufacturing jobs. The magnitude and fast pace of China's import penetration, coupled with anemic demand for domestic goods and high productivity gains in American factories, are associated with the 33 percent decline of 5.7 million domestic manufacturing jobs in the 2000-10 period - the largest loss in a decade in U.S. history. The effects on manufacturing employment associated with trade, domestic demand, and productivity strongly suggest that the largest impact - accounting for over 85 percent of total manufacturing jobs lost in the 2000s - is attributable to technological advances in U.S. factories sustaining productivity gains, with trade a relatively minor contributory factor, when viewed from the long-term perspective. The superior productivity gains, as well as the vaunted growth in real value-added output, associated with manufacturing are driven by the performance of its computer and electronic products industry, representing only 13 percent of total manufacturing value added.China's trade competition challenged the prevalent assumption, based on bilateral trade pacts after World War II, suggesting that economies recover from 'trade shocks' by displaced workers shifting into higher-productivity export industries. Free trade agreements and China's trade penetration - with the benefits not evenly distributed in the U.S. - are associated with the geographically-concentrated and unexpected political results of the November 2016 elections.
| Author | : Robert Z. Lawrence |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Lionel Fontagné |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 383 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 019877916X |
An economic analysis of de-industrialization that considers the ongoing transformation of the industrial economies and the consequences for economic policy.
| Author | : William R. Killingsworth |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : Industrial policy |
| ISBN | : 9781606496107 |
Manufacturing is a vital sector of a modern economy and is crucial for national defense and security. Since 1990, however, the U.S. has lost one in every three manufacturing jobs. In 1990, U.S. employment in manufacturing was 17,695,000. By 2011, the number of Americans employed in manufacturing had dropped to 11,734,000 - - a stunning loss of roughly 6 million jobs, a 34% drop in manufacturing employment. The decline of the U.S. manufacturing industry has been severe and the impacts devastating to countless American families and communities. Many cities are filled with vacant and abandoned factories and are plagued with high unemployment. Because of the vast job losses, and concerns regarding economic viability and national security, manufacturing is now a major topic of discussion. Rebuilding American Manufacturing presents and reviews why manufacturing matters. The book discusses the important contributions made by manufacturing to a vibrant economy, including the payment of good wages, driving innovation, creating exports and positive contributions to trade balance, and supporting national defense and security. Moreover, the book presents arguments that the loss of manufacturing is not inevitable and is not primarily the result of productivity gains nor of high wages. Analysis of the establishment data including the number of employees shows that, over time, somewhat surprisingly, the vast majority of factory closings were the larger plants with the greatest number of employees. This was true for most industries - the largest factories and plants were the ones most likely to close. This fact has major implications for business strategy and government policy because many companies are now considering reshoring manufacturing from abroad back to the U.S. If successful, this trend will help lower the unemployment rate and strengthen the economy.
| Author | : Lori G. Kletzer |
| Publisher | : Peterson Institute |
| Total Pages | : 148 |
| Release | : 2001 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780881322965 |
In this study of the medium-term effects of trade displacement on American workers, Kletzer uses worker-level data from the US Displaced Worker Surveys to examine the pattern of reemployment following trade-related job loss. She also analyzes regional and local labor market variations, and concludes by exploring the implications of her findings for US policy on linking the labor market and international trade.
| Author | : Kerwin Kofi Charles |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Using data from a variety of sources, this paper comprehensively documents the dramatic changes in the manufacturing sector and the large decline in employment rates and hours worked among prime-aged Americans since 2000. We use cross-region variation to explore the link between declining manufacturing employment and labor market outcomes. We find that manufacturing decline in a local area in the 2000s had large and persistent negative effects on local employment rates, hours worked and wages. We also show that declining local manufacturing employment is related to rising local opioid use and deaths. These results suggest that some of the recent opioid epidemic is driven by demand factors in addition to increased opioid supply. We conclude the paper with a discussion of potential mediating factors associated with declining manufacturing labor demand including public and private transfer receipt, sectoral switching, and inter-region mobility. Overall, we conclude that the decline in manufacturing employment was a substantial cause of the decline in employment rates during the 2000s particularly for less educated prime age workers. Given the trends in both capital and skill deepening within this sector, we further conclude that many policies currently being discussed to promote the manufacturing sector will have only a modest labor market impact for less educated individuals.
| Author | : Susan N. Houseman |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : Automation |
| ISBN | : |
U.S. manufacturing experienced a precipitous and historically unprecedented decline in employment in the 2000s. Many economists and other analysts—pointing to decades of statistics showing that manufacturing real (inflation-adjusted) output growth has largely kept pace with private sector real output growth, that productivity growth has been much higher, and that the sector’s share of aggregate employment has been declining—argue that manufacturing’s job losses are largely the result of productivity growth (assumed to reflect automation) and are part of a long-term trend. Since the 1980s, however, the apparently robust growth in manufacturing real output and productivity have been driven by a relatively small industry—computer and electronic products, whose extraordinary performance reflects the way statistical agencies account for rapid product improvements in the industry. Without the computer industry, there is no prima facie evidence that productivity caused manufacturing’s relative and absolute employment decline. This paper discusses interpreting labor productivity statistics, which capture many factors besides automation, and cautions against using descriptive evidence to draw causal inferences. It also reviews the research literature to date, which finds that trade significantly contributed to the collapse of manufacturing employment in the 2000s, but finds little evidence of a causal link to automation.
