Diagnostic Expectations And Stock Returns
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| Author | : Pedro Bordalo |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
We revisit La Porta's (1996) finding that returns on stocks with the most optimistic analyst long term earnings growth forecasts are substantially lower than those for stocks with the most pessimistic forecasts. We document that this finding still holds, and present several further facts about the joint dynamics of fundamentals, expectations, and returns for these portfolios. We explain these facts using a new model of belief formation based on a portable formalization of the representativeness heuristic. In this model, analysts forecast future fundamentals from the history of earnings growth, but they over-react to news by exaggerating the probability of states that have become objectively more likely. Intuitively, fast earnings growth predicts future Googles but not as many as analysts believe. We test predictions that distinguish this mechanism from both Bayesian learning and adaptive expectations, and find supportive evidence. A calibration of the model offers a satisfactory account of the key patterns in fundamentals, expectations, and returns.
| Author | : Nicola Gennaioli |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 264 |
| Release | : 2018-09-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0691182507 |
How investor expectations move markets and the economy The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the nature of economic risk. In this authoritative and comprehensive book, two of today’s most insightful economists reveal how our beliefs shape financial markets, lead to expansions of credit and leverage, and expose the economy to major risks. Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer carefully walk readers through the unraveling of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown of the US financial system, and then present new evidence to illustrate the destabilizing role played by the beliefs of home buyers, investors, and regulators. Using the latest research in psychology and behavioral economics, they present a new theory of belief formation that explains why the financial crisis came as such a shock to so many people—and how financial and economic instability persist. A must-read for anyone seeking insights into financial markets, A Crisis of Beliefs shows how even the smartest market participants and regulators did not fully appreciate the extent of economic risk, and offers a new framework for understanding today’s unpredictable financial waters.
| Author | : Sean D. Campbell |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : |
"We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions consistently affect expected excess returns in a statistically and economically significant counter-cyclical fashion: depressed expected business conditions are associated with high expected excess returns. Moreover, inclusion of expected business conditions in otherwisestandard predictive return regressions substantially reduces the explanatory power of the conventional financial predictors, including the dividend yield, default premium, and term premium, while simultaneously increasing R-squared. Expected business conditions retain predictive power even after controlling for an important and recently introduced non-financial predictor, the generalized consumption/wealth ratio, which accords with the view that expected business conditions play a role in asset pricing different from and complementary to that of the consumption/wealth ratio. We argue that time-varying expected business conditions likely capture time-varying risk, while time-varying consumption/wealth may capture time-varying risk aversion"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
| Author | : Robert F. Whitelaw |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 308 |
| Release | : 1993 |
| Genre | : Stocks |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Andrei Shleifer |
| Publisher | : Harvard University Press |
| Total Pages | : 224 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780674015821 |
This book offers a firsthand glimpse into the intellectual challenges that Russia's turbulent transition generated. It deals with many of the most important reforms, from Gorbachev's half-hearted "perestroika," to the mass privatization program, to the efforts to build legal and regulatory institutions of a market economy.
| Author | : Nicola Gennaioli |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 264 |
| Release | : 2020-03-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0691202230 |
"How investor expectations move markets and the economy. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the nature of economic risk. In this authoritative and comprehensive book, two of today's most insightful economists reveal how our beliefs shape financial markets, lead to expansions of credit and leverage, and expose the economy to major risks. Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer carefully walk readers through the unraveling of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown of the US financial system, and then present new evidence to illustrate the destabilizing role played by the beliefs of home buyers, investors, and regulators. Using the latest research in psychology and behavioral economics, they present a new theory of belief formation that explains why the financial crisis came as such a shock to so many people--and how financial and economic instability persist. A must-read for anyone seeking insights into financial markets, A Crisis of Beliefs shows how even the smartest market participants and regulators did not fully appreciate the extent of economic risk, and offers a new framework for understanding today's unpredictable financial waters."--
| Author | : Brian Perry |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 304 |
| Release | : 2020-09-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1119691222 |
Secure your investment gains and supercharge your results with this down-to-earth analysis of investing fundamentals Via powerful and unique insights, Ignore the Hype: Financial Strategies Beyond the Media-Driven Mayhem teaches readers how to keep their focus squarely on time-tested strategies for meeting their financial goals without getting distracted by a constant barrage of news headlines. The book takes a common-sense approach to the financial world that’s ideally suited to the everyday investor. It covers topics including: How to avoid competing against hedge funds in a game they’ve rigged What you can do today to avoid taxes tomorrow Wall Street’s Dirty Secret: Forecasting is just guessing Why some of your investments have worse odds than a casino game How the media circus can derail your financial plans Surviving a world where financial advisors don’t have to act in your best interest Ignore the Hype emphasizes the difference between short-term trading and long-term investing, how to filter the constant onslaught of information coming your way from every angle and separate the valuable content from the noise, and how to build a foundation for investment success based on common sense and academic research.
| Author | : Pedro Bordalo |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2022 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges posed by the rational expectations revolution, most importantly the idea that economic agents are forward-looking. Second, belief overreaction can account for many long-standing empirical puzzles in macro and finance, which emphasize the extreme volatility and boom-bust dynamics of key time series, such as stock prices, credit, and investment. Third, overreaction relies on psychology and is disciplined by survey data on expectations. This suggests that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations is a promising strategy, helps theory and evidence go together, and offers a unified view of a great deal of data.
| Author | : Ilya A. Strebulaev |
| Publisher | : Now Pub |
| Total Pages | : 174 |
| Release | : 2012-10-02 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781601985804 |
The goals of this monograph are to explain the models and techniques and make it more accessible, introduce the main strands of this literature, and explain how dynamic models can be taken to the data and estimated, providing a guide to 3 methodologies: generalized method of moments, simulated method of moments, and maximum simulated likelihood.
| Author | : Ramon Marimon |
| Publisher | : OUP Oxford |
| Total Pages | : 298 |
| Release | : 1999-03-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0191522392 |
Macroeconomics increasingly uses stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models to understand theoretical and policy issues. Unless very strong assumptions are made, understanding the properties of particular models requires solving the model using a computer. This volume brings together leading contributors in the field who explain in detail how to implement the computational techniques needed to solve dynamic economics models. A broad spread of techniques are covered, and their application in a wide range of subjects discussed. The book provides the basics of a toolkit which researchers and graduate students can use to solve and analyse their own theoretical models.
