Devaluation Exchange Controls And Black Markets For Foreign Exchange In Developing Countries
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Author | : Sebastian Edwards |
Publisher | : Johns Hopkins University Press |
Total Pages | : 110 |
Release | : 1988 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.
Author | : Ernesto May |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 168 |
Release | : 1985 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
This paper provides a theoretical framework to understand the way in which exchange controls modify the behavior of the different agents in the economy, leading to the creation of a parallel market economy. It gives the necessary theoretical elements to analyze this parallel market economy and provides a simple methodology to obtain relevant quantitative information about it. Finally, the paper elaborates on some of the policy implications of the existence of a parallel market economy. The model developed shows that the parallel market activities can be explained through the optimizing behavior of exporters and importers, which determines the amount of import and export smuggling, the level of the rent-seeking activity, and the black market exchange rate that is consistent with an equilibrium position where no one has any more incentives to move from their attained position. A method to detect the presence, and assess the magnitude of the parallel market economy, as well as to explain its behavior quantitatively, is then developed and applied to the case of Ghana.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 52 |
Release | : 1990-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451943229 |
The paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical developments in the analysis of informal currency markets in developing countries. The basic characteristics of these markets are highlighted, and alternative analytical models to explain them are discussed. The implications for exchange rate policy —including imposition of foreign exchange restrictions, devaluation, and unification of exchange markets— in countries with a sizable parallel market are also examined.
Author | : Mr.Mohsin S. Khan |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 1992-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451931301 |
This paper examines the relative demands for domestic and foreign currency deposits by residents of developing countries. A dynamic currency substitution model that incorporates forward-looking rational expectations is formulated and then estimated for a group of ten developing countries. The results indicate that the foreign rate of interest and the expected rate of depreciation of the parallel market exchange rate are important factors in the choice between holding domestic money or switching to foreign currency deposits held abroad. From an empirical standpoint, the forward-looking framework adopted here also turns out to be superior to the conventional currency-substitution model.
Author | : Steven Kamin |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 1988 |
Genre | : Black market |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Anne O. Krueger |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 236 |
Release | : 1983-03-31 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780521273015 |
This volume provides a survey of thought about exchange-rate determination as it emerged in the 1970s.
Author | : Miguel Alberto Kiguel |
Publisher | : Palgrave MacMillan |
Total Pages | : 426 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
The evidence of black market exchange rate systems and their impact on macroeconomic performance is well documented in this fully researched study of the problem. The book offers policy conclusions after assessing the evidence.
Author | : Chief Economist Latin America and Caribbean Region Sebastian Edwards |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 1989-08-04 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9780262519014 |
Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment provides a unified theoretical and empirical investigation of exchange rate policy and performance in scores of developing countries. It develops a theory of equilibrium and disequilibrium real exchange rates, takes up the question of why devaluations are the most controversial policy measures in poorer nations, and discusses what determines their success or failure. In a lucid fashion, Edwards organizes vast amounts of data on exchange rates - both real and nominal - and discusses their effect on net trade balances, net asset positions, output growth, real wages, and rates of price inflation, analyzed both in time series and through cross country comparisons. Edwards's investigation singles out 39 major devaluation episodes for before and after comparative analyses while simultaneously isolating the separate effects of other important explanatory variables, such as bank credit expansion and changes in the terms of trade. The first part of the book focuses on theoretical models of devaluation and real exchange rate behavior in less developed countries. Special attention is paid to intertemporal channels in the transmission of disturbances. The second part uses a large cross country data set to analyze the way the real exchange rate has behaved in these nations. The data are also used to test the implications of several theories of real exchange rate determination. The third part analyzes actual devaluation experiences between 1962 and 1982. These chapters examine the events leading to a balance of payments crisis and to a devaluation, exploring the relation between macroeconomic disequilibrium, and the imposition of trade and exchange controls. They also investigate the effect of nominal devaluation on key variables such as the balance of payments, the current account, the real exchange rate, real output real wages, and income distribution.
Author | : Michael D. Bordo |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 692 |
Release | : 2007-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0226066908 |
At the close of the Second World War, when industrialized nations faced serious trade and financial imbalances, delegates from forty-four countries met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in order to reconstruct the international monetary system. In this volume, three generations of scholars and policy makers, some of whom participated in the 1944 conference, consider how the Bretton Woods System contributed to unprecedented economic stability and rapid growth for 25 years and discuss the problems that plagued the system and led to its eventual collapse in 1971. The contributors explore adjustment, liquidity, and transmission under the System; the way it affected developing countries; and the role of the International Monetary Fund in maintaining a stable rate. The authors examine the reasons for the System's success and eventual collapse, compare it to subsequent monetary regimes, such as the European Monetary System, and address the possibility of a new fixed exchange rate for today's world.
Author | : Romain Lafarguette |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 33 |
Release | : 2021-02-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513569406 |
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.