Deterrence in the Age of Thinking Machines

Deterrence in the Age of Thinking Machines
Author: Yuna Huh Wong
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9781977404060

The greater use of artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems by the militaries of the world has the potential to affect deterrence strategies and escalation dynamics in crises and conflicts. Up until now, deterrence has involved humans trying to dissuade other humans from taking particular courses of action. What happens when the thinking and decision processes involved are no longer purely human? How might dynamics change when decisions and actions can be taken at machine speeds? How might AI and autonomy affect the ways that countries have developed to signal one another about the potential use of force? What are potential areas for miscalculation and unintended consequences, and unwanted escalation in particular? This exploratory report provides an initial examination of how AI and autonomous systems could affect deterrence and escalation in conventional crises and conflicts. Findings suggest that the machine decisionmaking can result in inadvertent escalation or altered deterrence dynamics, due to the speed of machine decisionmaking, the ways in which it differs from human understanding, the willingness of many countries to use autonomous systems, our relative inexperience with them, and continued developments of these capabilities. Current planning and development efforts have not kept pace with how to handle the potentially destabilizing or escalatory issues associated with these new technologies, and it is essential that planners and decisionmakers begin to think about these issues before fielded systems are engaged in conflict.

AI and the Bomb

AI and the Bomb
Author: James Johnson
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 291
Release: 2023-01-24
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0192673920

Will AI make accidental nuclear war more likely? If so, how might these risks be reduced? AI and the Bomb provides a coherent, innovative, and multidisciplinary examination of the potential effects of AI technology on nuclear strategy and escalation risk. It addresses a gap in the international relations and strategic studies literature, and its findings have significant theoretical and policy ramifications for using AI technology in the nuclear enterprise. The book advances an innovative theoretical framework to consider AI technology and atomic risk, drawing on insights from political psychology, neuroscience, computer science, and strategic studies. In this multidisciplinary work, James Johnson unpacks the seminal cognitive-psychological features of the Cold War-era scholarship, and offers a novel explanation of why these matter for AI applications and strategic thinking. The study offers crucial insights for policymakers and contributes to the literature that examines the impact of military force and technological change.

Thinking about Deterrence

Thinking about Deterrence
Author: Air Univeristy Press
Publisher: Military Bookshop
Total Pages: 344
Release: 2014-09-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9781782667100

With many scholars and analysts questioning the relevance of deterrence as a valid strategic concept, this volume moves beyond Cold War nuclear deterrence to show the many ways in which deterrence is applicable to contemporary security. It examines the possibility of applying deterrence theory and practice to space, to cyberspace, and against non-state actors. It also examines the role of nuclear deterrence in the twenty-first century and reaches surprising conclusions.

Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Author: Paul Scharre
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Total Pages: 330
Release: 2023-02-28
Genre: History
ISBN: 0393866874

An NPR 2023 "Books We Love" Pick One of the Next Big Idea Club's Must-Read Books "An invaluable primer to arguably the most important driver of change for our future." —P. W. Singer, author of Burn-In An award-winning defense expert tells the story of today’s great power rivalry—the struggle to control artificial intelligence. A new industrial revolution has begun. Like mechanization or electricity before it, artificial intelligence will touch every aspect of our lives—and cause profound disruptions in the balance of global power, especially among the AI superpowers: China, the United States, and Europe. Autonomous weapons expert Paul Scharre takes readers inside the fierce competition to develop and implement this game-changing technology and dominate the future. Four Battlegrounds argues that four key elements define this struggle: data, computing power, talent, and institutions. Data is a vital resource like coal or oil, but it must be collected and refined. Advanced computer chips are the essence of computing power—control over chip supply chains grants leverage over rivals. Talent is about people: which country attracts the best researchers and most advanced technology companies? The fourth “battlefield” is maybe the most critical: the ultimate global leader in AI will have institutions that effectively incorporate AI into their economy, society, and especially their military. Scharre’s account surges with futuristic technology. He explores the ways AI systems are already discovering new strategies via millions of war-game simulations, developing combat tactics better than any human, tracking billions of people using biometrics, and subtly controlling information with secret algorithms. He visits China’s “National Team” of leading AI companies to show the chilling synergy between China’s government, private sector, and surveillance state. He interviews Pentagon leadership and tours U.S. Defense Department offices in Silicon Valley, revealing deep tensions between the military and tech giants who control data, chips, and talent. Yet he concludes that those tensions, inherent to our democratic system, create resilience and resistance to autocracy in the face of overwhelmingly powerful technology. Engaging and direct, Four Battlegrounds offers a vivid picture of how AI is transforming warfare, global security, and the future of human freedom—and what it will take for democracies to remain at the forefront of the world order.

NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020

NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020
Author: Frans Osinga
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 538
Release: 2020-12-03
Genre: Law
ISBN: 9462654190

This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.

The Palgrave Handbook of Malicious Use of AI and Psychological Security

The Palgrave Handbook of Malicious Use of AI and Psychological Security
Author: Evgeny Pashentsev
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 711
Release: 2023-06-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 303122552X

This handbook focuses on new threats to psychological security that are posed by the malicious use of AI and how it can be used to counteract such threats. Studies on the malicious use of AI through deepfakes, agenda setting, sentiment analysis and affective computing and so forth, provide a visual representation of the various forms and methods of malicious influence on the human psyche, and through this on the political, economic, cultural processes, the activities of state and non-state institutions. Separate chapters examine the malicious use of AI in geopolitical confrontation, political campaigns, strategic deception, damage to corporate reputation, and activities of extremist and terrorist organizations. This is a unique volume that brings together a multidisciplinary range of established scholars and upcoming new researchers from 11 countries. This handbook is an invaluable resource for students, researchers, and professionals interested in this new and developing field of social practice and knowledge.

Research Handbook on Warfare and Artificial Intelligence

Research Handbook on Warfare and Artificial Intelligence
Author: Robin Geiß
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 417
Release: 2024-07-05
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1800377401

The Research Handbook on Warfare and Artificial Intelligence provides a multi-disciplinary exploration of the urgent issues emerging from the increasing use of AI-supported technologies in military operations. Bringing together scholarship from leading experts in the fields of technology and security from across the globe, it sheds light on the wide spectrum of existing and prospective cases of AI in armed conflict.

The New Fire

The New Fire
Author: Ben Buchanan
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 341
Release: 2022-03-08
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0262046547

AI is revolutionizing the world. Here’s how democracies can come out on top. Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the modern world. It is ubiquitous—in our homes and offices, in the present and most certainly in the future. Today, we encounter AI as our distant ancestors once encountered fire. If we manage AI well, it will become a force for good, lighting the way to many transformative inventions. If we deploy it thoughtlessly, it will advance beyond our control. If we wield it for destruction, it will fan the flames of a new kind of war, one that holds democracy in the balance. As AI policy experts Ben Buchanan and Andrew Imbrie show in The New Fire, few choices are more urgent—or more fascinating—than how we harness this technology and for what purpose. The new fire has three sparks: data, algorithms, and computing power. These components fuel viral disinformation campaigns, new hacking tools, and military weapons that once seemed like science fiction. To autocrats, AI offers the prospect of centralized control at home and asymmetric advantages in combat. It is easy to assume that democracies, bound by ethical constraints and disjointed in their approach, will be unable to keep up. But such a dystopia is hardly preordained. Combining an incisive understanding of technology with shrewd geopolitical analysis, Buchanan and Imbrie show how AI can work for democracy. With the right approach, technology need not favor tyranny.

Artificial Intelligence, Ethics and the Future of Warfare

Artificial Intelligence, Ethics and the Future of Warfare
Author: Kaushik Roy
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 170
Release: 2024-05-23
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1040016553

This volume examines how the adoption of AI technologies is likely to impact strategic and operational planning, and the possible future tactical scenarios for conventional, unconventional, cyber, space and nuclear force structures. In addition to developments in the USA, Britain, Russia and China, the volume also explores how different Asian and European countries are actively integrating AI into their military readiness. It studies the effect of AI and related technologies in training regimens and command structures. The book also covers the ethical and legal aspects of AI augmented warfare. The volume will be of great interest to scholars, students and researchers of military and strategic studies, defence studies, artificial intelligence and ethics.

Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare

Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
Author: James Johnson
Publisher: Manchester University Press
Total Pages: 186
Release: 2021-09-14
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1526145073

This volume offers an innovative and counter-intuitive study of how and why artificial intelligence-infused weapon systems will affect the strategic stability between nuclear-armed states. Johnson demystifies the hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of nuclear weapons and, more broadly, future warfare. The book highlights the potential, multifaceted intersections of this and other disruptive technology – robotics and autonomy, cyber, drone swarming, big data analytics, and quantum communications – with nuclear stability. Anticipating and preparing for the consequences of the AI-empowered weapon systems are fast becoming a critical task for national security and statecraft. Johnson considers the impact of these trends on deterrence, military escalation, and strategic stability between nuclear-armed states – especially China and the United States. The book draws on a wealth of political and cognitive science, strategic studies, and technical analysis to shed light on the coalescence of developments in AI and other disruptive emerging technologies. Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare sketches a clear picture of the potential impact of AI on the digitized battlefield and broadens our understanding of critical questions for international affairs. AI will profoundly change how wars are fought, and how decision-makers think about nuclear deterrence, escalation management, and strategic stability – but not for the reasons you might think.