Demographics And Interest Rates In Asia
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| Author | : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2018-07-27 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1484370309 |
Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
| Author | : Serkan Arslanalp |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
| Author | : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2018-07-27 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 148437164X |
Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
| Author | : Feng Zhu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 87 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
I study the evolution of the equilibrium real interest rate, also known as the natural or neutral interest rate, in Asia-Pacific. Simple estimates based on a statistical approach suggest that, except for China, and Thailand since 2005, the natural interest rate may have declined substantially in Asia-Pacific economies since the early or mid-1990s, by over 4 percentage points on average. In many economies the rate has turned negative. The tendency has become more accentuated in the 2000s, especially following the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. The natural interest rate appears to vary significantly over time and across economies. Nevertheless, simple natural interest rate estimates are unreliable, and large uncertainties and sizeable heterogeneity in the estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate call for caution as well as monetary policy rules which are robust to such uncertainties. I use frequency-domain techniques to examine the relationship between the long-run component of real interest rate and those of population characteristics, globalisation, and a range of macroeconomic and financial variables (eg credit and asset prices). I estimate spectral and cospectral densities, coherency and the frequency-specific coefficients of correlation and regression proposed by Zhu (2005). The association seems to be broad and strong between the natural interest rate and the low-frequency trend components of demographic and global factors in AsiaPacific, but weak between the natural interest rate and trends in asset prices, creditto-GDP ratio and trend growth in many economies in the region. In most cases, the natural interest rate seems to be correlated with broad measures of long-term financial sector development, and trends in savings rate and investment ratio. Understanding the underlying factors driving changes in each economy's natural interest rate is important for the correct calibration and implementation of monetary policy.Full Publication: 'http://ssrn.com/abstract=2861007' Expanding the Boundaries of Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific.
| Author | : Takatoshi Ito |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 403 |
| Release | : 2010-10-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226386880 |
Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.
| Author | : Feng Zhu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : Interest rates |
| ISBN | : |
"This paper studies the evolution of the equilibrium real interest rate (ie natural or neutral interest rate) in Asia-Pacific. The author takes an empirical approach to estimate the rate, simple estimates suggest that except for China, and Thailand since 2005, the natural interest rate may have declined substantially in Asian-Pacific economies since the early or mid-1990s, by over 4 percentage points on average. In many economies the rate has turned negative. The tendency has become more accentuated in the 2000s, especially since the onset of the global financial crisis. Yet simple natural interest rate estimates are unreliable, which vary significantly over time and across the economies."--Abstract.
| Author | : Charles Goodhart |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 260 |
| Release | : 2020-08-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030426572 |
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
| Author | : Erik Lueth |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper calibrates the production functions of 176 countries to fit 2003 data and examines the capital flows that emerge, when labor forces change according to the 2007 UN population projections. It finds that demographic factors are no help in correcting today's global imbalances; that Japan's capital outflows have as much to do with population aging as with the yen carry-trade; and that China is key to understanding Asia's demographic impact on the world. It also finds that Asia offers the greatest arbitrage opportunities worldwide during the demographic transition and has the greatest potential for regional financial integration among world regions. Moreover, the demographic transition is unlikely to result in an asset price meltdown and could even raise world interest rates under perfect capital mobility.
| Author | : Andrew Mason |
| Publisher | : Stanford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 527 |
| Release | : 2001 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0804743223 |
The fifteen essays in this volume address from several viewpoints the question of what role population change played in East Asia's rapid economic development.
| Author | : Jeremie Cohen-Setton |
| Publisher | : Peterson Institute for International Economics |
| Total Pages | : 494 |
| Release | : 2018-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0881327344 |
Economic growth, inflation, and interest rates have declined in Asia, just as they have in the United States and Europe. This volume explores the relevance to several Asian economies of the diagnosis known as “secular stagnation.” Leading experts on the region discuss the fiscal and monetary policy challenges of reviving growth without generating domestic financial imbalances. The essays on innovation, demographics, spillovers, and various policy proposals are accompanied by case studies focusing on Japan, South Korea, China, India, and Indonesia.
