Deliberating American Monetary Policy

Deliberating American Monetary Policy
Author: Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 537
Release: 2013-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262314738

A systematic analysis of Federal Reserve and congressional deliberations on monetary policy, drawing on textual analysis software and in-depth interviews with participants. American monetary policy is formulated by the Federal Reserve and overseen by Congress. Both policy making and oversight are deliberative processes, although the effect of this deliberation has been difficult to quantify. In this book, Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey provides a systematic examination of deliberation on monetary policy from 1976 to 2008 by the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) and House and Senate banking committees. Her innovative account employs automated textual analysis software to study the verbatim transcripts of FOMC meetings and congressional hearings; these empirical data are supplemented and supported by in-depth interviews with participants in these deliberations. The automated textual analysis measures the characteristic words, phrases, and arguments of committee members; the interviews offer a way to gauge the extent to which the empirical findings accord with the participants' personal experiences. Analyzing why and under what conditions deliberation matters for monetary policy, the author identifies several strategies of persuasion used by FOMC members, including Paul Volcker's emphasis on policy credibility and efforts to influence economic expectations. Members of Congress, however, constrained by political considerations, show a relative passivity on the details of monetary policy.

The Pressures on American Monetary Policy

The Pressures on American Monetary Policy
Author: Thomas Havrilesky
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475722281

The basic motivation for this book is my lifelong interest in the relationship between political processes and macroeconomic outcomes, especially in the area of monetary policy. Monetary policy is an area where political considerations regularly impact upon economic results. When my fascination with this subject began thirty years ago, none of the scholarly literature of that period engaged in modeling monetary policy, even as a constrained maximization problem, not to mention systematically linking it to politically-generated goals. My dissertation at the University of Illinois in 1966 and my first published article (in the Journal of Political Economy in 1967) addressed the modeling and estimation of the concerns that propel monetary policy. In the political and economic turbulence of the period from the late 1960s through the early 1980s, it became clear that the directions taken by monetary policy were changing with some frequency. Much of my published research during that period dealt with formal control theoretic models of monetary policy but some of it attempted to measure these changes and showed that monetary policy reactions to the state of the economy were not stable over time. Even during this early period I suggested reforms which might reduce the resulting instability in the economy. For example, my 1972 article in the Journal of Political Economy suggested systematic penalties Federal Reserve officials who failed to meet the goal of monetary stability by tying their budgets or salaries inversely to the rate of inflation.

Deliberating American Monetary Policy

Deliberating American Monetary Policy
Author: Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 537
Release: 2013-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262019574

American monetary policy is formulated by the Federal Reserve and overseen by Congress. Both policy making and oversight are deliberative processes, although the effect of this deliberation has been difficult to quantify. In this book, Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey provides a systematic examination of deliberation on monetary policy from 1976 to 2008 by the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) and House and Senate banking committees. Her innovative account employs automated textual analysis software to study the verbatim transcripts of FOMC meetings and congressional hearings; these empirical data are supplemented and supported by in-depth interviews with participants in these deliberations. The automated textual analysis measures the characteristic words, phrases, and arguments of committee members; the interviews offer a way to gauge the extent to which the empirical findings accord with the participants' personal experiences --

Deliberation and Oversight in Monetary Policy, 1976-2008

Deliberation and Oversight in Monetary Policy, 1976-2008
Author: Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

The focus of this paper is on the relationship of the Federal Reserve vis-à-vis Congress, starting in the mid-1970s -- the period of sustained high inflation -- and ending in early 2008, thereby capturing the early days of the financial crisis. As part of a larger book project, this paper provides a bird's eye view of the discourse in the House and Senate banking committees as they conducted oversight hearings on monetary policy from 1976 to 2008. We use automated textual analysis software to gauge (statistically and graphically) deliberation within these committee hearings, using the verbatim transcripts. We analyze in full (i.e., every word, every phrase) 61 hearings over the 33 year period in order to measure empirically the deliberative discourse by politicians and central bankers on US monetary policy over three decades. We examine (1) the themes that do (and do not) interest legislators when they question the Fed chairman; (2) how these themes have evolved over three decades; and (3) differences in focus between both the Fed chairman and legislators, and between Democrats and Republicans.

Deliberation and Monetary Policy

Deliberation and Monetary Policy
Author: Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

The story of what happened to change the course of monetary policy in the US from one of “anguish” to the successful establishment of persistent low inflation by Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan since 1979 has been extensively studied, but in our view still has gaps in terms of understanding why and how policy changed. We examine the twenty year history of US monetary policy between 1979 and 1999 in order better to understand the preferences of policy makers as they deliberate in committee on the monetary policy decision. We employ text analysis software to explore the verbatim transcripts of FOMC meetings for three key periods (nine years) between 1979 and 1999 (1979-1981; 1991-1993 and 1997-1999). Rather than imputing preferences from votes, we use the actual words, arguments and rationales espoused by policy makers as they deliberated on the monetary policy decision. Our primary methodological goal is to obtain a systematic and quantifiable account of the decision making process in the FOMC meetings as the US moved from a period of high inflation to sustained low inflation. Among our key findings is that we observe (1) a clear decline in the role of deliberation in FOMC meetings in the late 1990s and an increasing weight on studying the state of the economy; (2) a change in the emphasis on the strategy of monetary policy that appears to be consistent with the greater credibility of low inflation over time; and (3) changes in the relative roles for reserve bank presidents and board governors from the late 1970s to the late 1990s.