Decomposing The Inflation Dynamics In The Philippines
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| Author | : Mr.Si Guo |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 20 |
| Release | : 2019-07-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513508016 |
Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.
| Author | : Francisco G. Dakila Jr. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 116 |
| Release | : 2024-07-12 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.
| Author | : Mr. Philippe D Karam |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 45 |
| Release | : 2021-10-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1589068718 |
We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.
| Author | : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 2018-06-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484363043 |
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
| Author | : William Curt Hunter |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 650 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262582537 |
A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
| Author | : Ms.Valerie Cerra |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 2020-05-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513536990 |
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
| Author | : U.S. Global Change Research Program |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 193 |
| Release | : 2009-08-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0521144078 |
Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.
| Author | : Steven Rood |
| Publisher | : ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute |
| Total Pages | : 313 |
| Release | : 2024-05-09 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9815104926 |
The Duterte administration (2016–22) marked the return of an authoritarian style of rule in the Philippines. It was also accompanied by an economic recovery that was better than many expected, at least until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both during and following the Duterte period, the country was buffeted by a series of internal and external shocks that called into question the state’s legal and social policy contract with its citizens. This period of “contesting the Philippines” was an intense, normative and practical struggle to shape (or reshape) some of the Philippines’ most critical institutions: the Constitution, the presidency, the Supreme Court and the rule of law, the free press, regional autonomy and independent regulatory institutions. These developments energized many domestic policy actors: technocrats, the business sector, civil society organizations, the police and the military, armed groups and religious leaders across the spectrum of Filipino politics. This volume considers some key sites of contestation between and among domestic policy actors, including the executive, during this eventful period for political and legal institutions in the Philippines.
| Author | : Woon Gyu Choi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2010-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451918682 |
This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
| Author | : Parisa Kamali |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 58 |
| Release | : 2019-12-27 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513519875 |
In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two.
