Decision Making Under Ambiguity And Time Constraints
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| Author | : Reimut Zohlnhöfer |
| Publisher | : ECPR Press |
| Total Pages | : 411 |
| Release | : 2016-02-24 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1785521675 |
Policy issues have grown ever more complex and politically more contestable. So governments in advanced democracies often do not understand the problems they have to deal with and do not know how to solve them. Thus, rational problem-solving models are highly unconvincing. Conversely, the Multiple-Streams Framework starts out from these conditions, which has led to increasing interest in it. Nevertheless, there has not yet been a systematic attempt to assess the potential of such scholarship. This volume is the first attempt to fill that gap by bringing together a group of international scholars to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the Framework from different angles. Chapters explore systematically and empirically the Framework’s potential in different national contexts and in policy areas from climate change and foreign policy to healthcare and the welfare state.
| Author | : Mykel J. Kochenderfer |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 350 |
| Release | : 2015-07-24 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 0262331713 |
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
| Author | : Sanjit Dhami |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 553 |
| Release | : 2022-07-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0262369656 |
Two leaders in the field explore the foundations of bounded rationality and its effects on choices by individuals, firms, and the government. Bounded rationality recognizes that human behavior departs from the perfect rationality assumed by neoclassical economics. In this book, Sanjit Dhami and Cass R. Sunstein explore the foundations of bounded rationality and consider the implications of this approach for public policy and law, in particular for questions about choice, welfare, and freedom. The authors, both recognized as experts in the field, cover a wide range of empirical findings and assess theoretical work that attempts to explain those findings. Their presentation is comprehensive, coherent, and lucid, with even the most technical material explained accessibly. They not only offer observations and commentary on the existing literature but also explore new insights, ideas, and connections. After examining the traditional neoclassical framework, which they refer to as the Bayesian rationality approach (BRA), and its empirical issues, Dhami and Sunstein offer a detailed account of bounded rationality and how it can be incorporated into the social and behavioral sciences. They also discuss a set of models of heuristics-based choice and the philosophical foundations of behavioral economics. Finally, they examine libertarian paternalism and its strategies of “nudges.”
| Author | : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 408 |
| Release | : 2019-04-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030052524 |
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
| Author | : Heike M. Grimm |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 294 |
| Release | : 2019-04-10 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 3030060616 |
This volume focuses on the evolution of public policy and the role of agenda setting with regard to policymaking in countries of the Global South. The authors illustrate the emergence of public policy research as an academic discipline, and highlight various aspects of history, governance, politics, and economics as components of public policy theory development. By offering a cross-national perspective, the papers contribute to a better understanding of when, how, and by whom a given policy agenda is designed, which is essential to grasping how policy is implemented. In turn, the authors investigate how the development of public policy research has influenced policymaking in fields such as democratization, migration, corruption, agriculture, environment, education, and entrepreneurship and, more specifically, agenda setting in selected countries of the Global South.
| Author | : Verna Smith |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 184 |
| Release | : 2018-01-03 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 9811076022 |
This monograph applies Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework to two policymaking episodes of implementing pay for performance in general practice, conducted in England and New Zealand. The Framework’s explanatory power for policymaking in Westminster majoritarian jurisdictions is tested and, based on rigorous comparative analysis, recommendations are made for its refinement. The monograph also offers striking lessons for policymakers about how to negotiate successfully with general practitioners.
| Author | : Helge Staff |
| Publisher | : LIT Verlag Münster |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 3643913524 |
The global growth of private security services signals a significant shift in the production of the most traditional good provided by modern nation states - security. This systematic mixed methods analysis, linking output- and process-oriented policy theories, shows patterns and mechanisms of how political factors - like party dominance - drive the development of private security policy and industry. Based in comparative policy analysis it asks, what accounts for the differences in the policies toward and the outcomes of private security between EU member states?
| Author | : Basskaran Nair |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 281 |
| Release | : 2018-02-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1351362151 |
Policy analysts and policy planners should start from the premise that obstacles, uncertainties and surprises are important features of policy-making. All public policies should be treated as complex problems, from the outset. Complexity theorists start from the premise that complex policies are ill-defined and ambiguous. There is often little consensus about what the problem is, let alone how to resolve it. Into the complexity of the wicked problem fray, Marketing Public Policy introduces the role of communication scholars and practitioners whose models and practices focus on people, processes, opinions and behaviour as causes of organisational complexity. Communication practice’s role is to provide ideas on how to navigate, diagnose and interpret issues with a view to persuading the public to change its behaviour or opinions. From the case studies presented in this book, we see that despite rationally excellent macro- and micro-planning of policies to win the hearts and minds of citizens, public policies still deteriorate into hurts and minefields. The case studies are drawn from China, Indonesia, India, the USA, the UK and Europe to show that policy-making is always a complex issue in any country, whatever the political structure, whether democracy or communism.
| Author | : Nicole Herweg |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 276 |
| Release | : 2017-02-23 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 3319494007 |
This book furthers the ongoing theoretical development of the multiple streams framework, assessing its applicability to European Union (EU) policy-making processes. It systematically defines and identifies functional equivalents for all of the framework’s core concepts at the EU level and extends the framework in order to explain agenda-setting and decision-making. Furthermore, the book derives a set of explicit hypotheses to empirically assess the extent to which the (modified) framework is able to explain timing, agenda prominence, and policy change (or a lack thereof) for the EU natural gas directives passed in 1998, 2003, and 2009. The analysis documents that the framework is well-suited to explain the EU policy process in general and reveals where additional theoretical refinements are required.
| Author | : Christopher M. Weible |
| Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
| Total Pages | : 301 |
| Release | : 2022-04-28 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1000564606 |
The increasingly global study of policy processes faces challenges with scholars applying theories in radically different national and cultural contexts. Questions frequently arise about how to conduct policy process research comparatively and among this global community of scholars. Methods of the Policy Process is the first book to remedy this situation, not by establishing an orthodoxy or imposing upon the policy process community a rigid way of conducting research but, instead, by allowing the leading researchers in the different theoretical traditions a space to share the means by which they put their research into action. This edited volume serves as a companion volume and supplemental guide to the well-established Theories of the Policy Process, 4th Edition. Methods of the Policy Process acknowledges that growth and advancement in the study of the policy process is dependent not merely on conceptual and theoretical development, but also on developing and systematizing better methodological approaches to measurement and analysis. To maximize student engagement with the material, each chapter follows a similar framework: introduction of a given theory of the policy process, application of that theory (including best practices for research design, conceptualization, major data sources, data collection, and methodological approaches), critical assessment, future directions, and often online resources (including datasets, survey instruments, and interview and coding protocols). While the structure and focus of each chapter varies slightly according to the theoretical tradition being discussed, each chapter's central aim is to prepare readers to confidently undertake common methodological strategies themselves. Methods of the Policy Process is especially beneficial to people new to the field, including students enrolled in policy process courses, as well as those without access to formal training. For scholars experienced in applying theories, this edited volume is a helpful reference to clarify best practices in research methods.
