Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Consensus Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns

Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Consensus Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns
Author: Brad M. Barber
Publisher:
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper we document that an investment strategy based on the consensus (average) analyst recommendations of security analysts earns positive returns. For the period 1986-1996, a portfolio of stocks most highly recommended by analysts earned an annualized geometric mean return of 18.8 percent, while a portfolio of stocks least favorably recommended earned only 5.78 percent. (In comparison, an investment in a value-weighted market index earned an annualized geometric mean return of 14.5 percent.) Alternatively stated, purchasing stocks most highly recommended yielded a return of 102 basis points per month. The magnitude of this return is surprisingly large, and is far greater than the size effect (negative 16 basis points) and book-to-market effect (17 basis points) for the same period. Even after controlling for these two effects, as well as for price momentum, we show that the strategy of purchasing stocks most highly recommended and selling short those least favorably recommended yielded a return of 75 basis points per month. These results are robust to partitions by time period and overall market direction, and are most pronounced for small and medium-sized firms. The abnormal returns also persist when we allow a lapse of up to 15 days before acting on the investment recommendations. There is no extant theory of asset pricing that explains these results.

Best Practices for Equity Research (PB)

Best Practices for Equity Research (PB)
Author: James Valentine
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Total Pages: 465
Release: 2011-01-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0071736395

The first real-world guide for training equity research analysts—from a Morgan Stanley veteran Addresses the dearth of practical training materials for research analysts in the U.S. and globally Valentine managed a department of 70 analysts and 100 associates at Morgan Stanley and developed new programs for over 500 employees around the globe He will promote the book through his company's extensive outreach capabilities

When Buy Means Sell

When Buy Means Sell
Author: Eric Shkolnik
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Total Pages: 241
Release: 2002-09-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0071415653

Proven strategies for knowing which stock analysts to believe, which to ignoreand when to sell Investors are tired of losing money to the bad calls and noncalls of Wall Street analysts, especially on the heels of Enron and other "surprise" stock meltdowns. Instead of giving up, When Buy Means Sell presents an innovative, market-tested system for knowing which recommendations to trust, sniffing out conflicts of interest, and making buy and sell decisions based on valuable, impartial information. The first fresh approach to this age-old problem, When Buy Means Sell shows investors how to make sense ofand profit fromwhat Wall Street analysts are really saying, by revealing: Who the real prophets arefrom individual stars to leading firms How to read analyst calls like an insider Where to find the truly valuable information

Should Investors Follow the Prophets or the Bears? Evidence on the Use of Public Information by Analysts and Short Sellers

Should Investors Follow the Prophets or the Bears? Evidence on the Use of Public Information by Analysts and Short Sellers
Author: Michael S. Drake
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

We investigate whether shorts and analysts differ in their use of fundamental and other information that is predictive of future returns. Remarkably, open short interest is significantly associated in the expected direction with all eleven variables examined. In contrast, analysts tend to positively recommend stocks with high growth, high accruals, and low book-to-market ratios -- despite these variables having a negative association with future returns. These results suggest that short sellers can serve as an alternative information intermediary for investors. We then investigate the profitability of using short interest in trading. We find abnormal returns (1.11 percent per month) from a zero-investment strategy that 1) shorts firms with highly favorable analyst recommendations (buy signal) but high short interest (sell signal), and 2) buys firms with highly unfavorable analyst recommendations (sell signal) but low short interest (buy signal). Short interest, therefore, captures predictive information that can be used by investors in trading against analysts' recommendations to increase returns.

Prophets and Losses

Prophets and Losses
Author: Brad M. Barber
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

After a string of years in which security analysts' top stock picks significantly outperformed their pans, the year 2000 was a disaster. During that year the stocks least favorably recommended by analysts earned an annualized market-adjusted return of 48.66 percent while the stocks most highly recommended fell 31.20 percent, a return difference of almost 80 percentage points. This pattern prevailed during most months of 2000, regardless of whether the market was rising or falling, and was observed for both tech and non-tech stocks. While we cannot conclude that the 2000 results are necessarily driven by an increased emphasis on investment banking by analysts, our findings should add to the debate over the usefulness of analysts' stock recommendations to investors. They should also serve to alert researchers to the possibility that excluding the year 2000 from their sample period could have a significant impact on any conclusions they draw concerning analysts' stock recommendations.

The Global-Investor Book of Investing Rules

The Global-Investor Book of Investing Rules
Author: Philip Jenks
Publisher: FT Press
Total Pages: 514
Release: 2002
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0130094013

Profiles of 150 successful fund managers, traders, analysts, economists, and investment experts offer advice, techniques, and ideas to increase returns and control risks in investing. Some of the areas of specialty discussed include international markets and capital flows, company valuation, liquidi

Can Investors Profit from Security Analyst Recommendations?

Can Investors Profit from Security Analyst Recommendations?
Author: Sung Jun Park
Publisher:
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper revisits the question of whether investors can benefit from consensus recommendations of stock market analysts in US equity markets. To examine the profitability net of transactions cost, we calculate transactions cost based on effective tick spread. We find that transactions cost becomes noticeably lower from 2001 and the strategy of purchasing 'strong buy' stocks and shorting 'strong sell' stocks yields the abnormal returns of 4.7-5.8% per year during the period of 2001-2016, even after accounting for transactions cost. We also find that 'strong buy (sell)' stocks are growth (value) firms and short-term winners (losers). We discuss our empirical results in the context of market efficiency.

The Behavior Gap

The Behavior Gap
Author: Carl Richards
Publisher: Penguin
Total Pages: 179
Release: 2012-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1101559551

"It's not that we're dumb. We're wired to avoid pain and pursue pleasure and security. It feels right to sell when everyone around us is scared and buy when everyone feels great. It may feel right-but it's not rational." -From The Behavior Gap Why do we lose money? It's easy to blame the economy or the financial markets-but the real trouble lies in the decisions we make. As a financial planner, Carl Richards grew frustrated watching people he cared about make the same mistakes over and over. They were letting emotion get in the way of smart financial decisions. He named this phenomenon-the distance between what we should do and what we actually do-"the behavior gap." Using simple drawings to explain the gap, he found that once people understood it, they started doing much better. Richards's way with words and images has attracted a loyal following to his blog posts for The New York Times, appearances on National Public Radio, and his columns and lectures. His book will teach you how to rethink all kinds of situations where your perfectly natural instincts (for safety or success) can cost you money and peace of mind. He'll help you to: • Avoid the tendency to buy high and sell low; • Avoid the pitfalls of generic financial advice; • Invest all of your assets-time and energy as well as savings-more wisely; • Quit spending money and time on things that don't matter; • Identify your real financial goals; • Start meaningful conversations about money; • Simplify your financial life; • Stop losing money! It's never too late to make a fresh financial start. As Richards writes: "We've all made mistakes, but now it's time to give yourself permission to review those mistakes, identify your personal behavior gaps, and make a plan to avoid them in the future. The goal isn't to make the 'perfect' decision about money every time, but to do the best we can and move forward. Most of the time, that's enough."