Cointegration And Causal Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Stock Returns
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| Author | : Satish Batchu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 10 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The present study investigate the relationship between sensex returns and Indian-USD Exchange rates and the impact of the time series on each other. Exchange rate fluctuation will effect international trades, thus influence the stock market. The study is based on the secondary sources obtained from BSE and RBI database for the period from 1st January 2005 to 30th June, 2015. In the course of analysis, appropriate econometrics tools are used. ADF and PP Unit root test shows stationarity at level. Johansen cointegration test result indicates that there exist a long term relationship among the select variables. Correlation between exchange rates and stock rates was found to be negative. Granger causality test highlighted unidirectional relationship running from stock returns to exchange rates.
| Author | : Sanjeeta Shirodkar |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 9 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper has made an attempt to evaluate the combined impact of crude oil prices and exchange rate on the performance of Indian stock market. As the impact of dollar nominated oil prices on stock prices may not be quite relevant for Indian context. Therefore, in this study WTI Crude oil prices per Dollars along with the USD/Rupee exchange rate would be more meaningful and relevant to understand the impact of oil prices on stock market by using monthly data from 2003 to 2016 for S&P CNX Nifty Index, WTI Crude oil prices per Barrel (Dollars) and Dollar/Rupee Exchange rate. All the series were found to be stationery at First difference. The Granger causality tests revealed that there exists a Bi directional causality between stock prices and exchange rates in the short run i.e. stock prices lead exchange rates in the short run, but result of Johansen cointegration suggested that there is no long run relationship between these two financial variables. The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest absence of any long term relationship between WTI crude oil price, USD/Rupee exchange rate and stock prices in India. The result of forecast error variances suggested that USD/Rupee exchange rate is influenced by Stock market performance. The forecast error variances of USD/Rupee exchange rate is significantly explained by the value of Nifty. Results also indicate that the values of oil price and exchange rate are comparatively less exogenous than the Indian stock market. Particularly, the contribution of Stock market shocks to the USD/Rupee exchange rate is greater than that of WTI Crude oil price shocks in all the periods.
| Author | : Sekhar Amba |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 11 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in Mexican and Canadian Markets using weekly data from Jan 2013 to December 2018. Cointegration, Vector Error Correction model, Vector Auto Regression model and Granger causality tests are used to examine the long-term relationship and casual relationship between exchange rates and stock prices. Johansen cointegration tests confirm the insignificant existence of long-run relationships between stock prices and exchange rates in Canadian and Mexican markets. However, the Granger causality test confirms the existence of short-run unidirectional causal relationship from exchange rates to stock prices in the Mexican market.
| Author | : Sorin Dumitrescu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 18 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The paper investigates the dynamic links between stock prices and exchange rates in Romania, considering the changes in the exchange rate regime occurred after 1997. The research employs advanced econometric methods - cointegration and innovation accounting techniques, in order to capture the relationship between stock prices, exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables, applied to monthly data over the January 1998 - September 2007 period. We identify a long-term equilibrium relationship between stock prices, official reserves and nominal effective exchange rates, while the real exchange rate and the money supply are found not to be statistically significant in any of the models. The signs of variables in the cointegrating vectors are consistent with economic reasoning: we find there is a positive relationship between money supply and stock prices, on one hand, and between the nominal effective exchange rate and stock prices, on the other hand. Also, there is a negative relationship between official reserves and stock prices, and between the real effective exchange rate and stock prices. Conversely, while over the short run stock prices react mainly to their own one standard deviation shocks, over the long run we observe that shocks in money supply and reserves generate responses from stock prices.
| Author | : Van-Hop Nguyen |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 12 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This study examines the long- and short-run dynamics between exchange rates and stock prices by using cointegration methodology and multivariate Granger causality tests. We apply the analysis to six countries, including: Japan, United Kingdom, Hong Kong, China, India and Brazil over the period December 2007 to May 2013. The evidence suggests that the global financial crisis 2007-2009 is an important determinant of the link between the domestic stock and foreign exchange markets. The exchange rate is negatively related to the domestic stock market for emerging countries but positively for developed countries for entire sample and during the crisis. However, this relationship became positive for all countries after the crisis, except United Kingdom. The finding also indicates that the exchange rate movements contain some significant information to forecast the stock returns of these markets.
| Author | : Costas I. Karfakis |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 1996 |
| Genre | : Cointegration |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Khalid Ashraf Chisti |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 15 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper aims at examining the relationship between stock market prices (Nifty 50) India & macroeconomic variables (Exchange rate, Foreign Institutional Investment and Crude oil prices) for the period 2007-08 Q1 to 2017-18 Q3. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, the researchers employed Granger Causality, multiple regression and Johansen's Cointegration test. The results confirmed that there is a unidirectional relationship between crude oil prices and stock prices. Further the study confirms that FII and Oil prices are individually capable of influencing stock prices. Johansen's Cointegration test exhibits the absence of long run relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables (Exchange Rate and Oil prices). However, the findings put forth by the present study affirmed that Foreign Institutional Investment and Oil prices are capable of individually influencing Stock prices of Nifty 50. The null hypothesis of regression model, that is, macroeconomic variables have no impact on stock prices has been rejected because the f-statistic shows that the macroeconomic variables have statistically significant relationship with stock prices (Nifty 50).
| Author | : Clive William John Granger |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 14 |
| Release | : 1998 |
| Genre | : Financial crises |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Anthony John Richards |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 1996-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
This paper is a response to the literature that tests for cointegration between national stock market indices. It argues that apparent findings of cointegration in other studies may often be due to the use of asymptotic, rather than small-sample, critical values. In fact, economic theory suggests that cointegration is unlikely to be observed in efficient markets. However, this paper finds some evidence for the long-horizon predictability of relative returns, and the existence of “winner-loser” reversals across 16 national equity markets. A conclusion is that national stock market indices include a common world component and two country-specific components, one permanent and one transitory.
| Author | : Markku Malkamäki |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 1992 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
