Channels for Narrowing the US Current Account Deficit and Implications for Other Economies

Channels for Narrowing the US Current Account Deficit and Implications for Other Economies
Author: Anne-Marie Brook
Publisher:
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:

In this paper the OECD's interlink model is used to explore several possible channels through which a narrowing of the US current account deficit could occur. The shocks considered include dollar depreciation, fiscal consolidation, and an improvement in the non-price competitiveness of US producers. A key conclusion is that shocks would have to be very large in order to materially reduce the US external deficit. In part, this is because second-round effects, including domestic policy responses, tend to offset the shocks' initial impact. In addition, it is clear that each of the channels for narrowing the deficit involves risks to growth in the rest of the world, particularly in Japan where the authorities have limited room to use monetary or fiscal policy to offset any contractionary pressures. The exchange rate simulations highlight the fact that more exchange rate flexibility in Asia would spread the burden of adjustment more evenly across US trading partners. Attention is also ...

U.S. Current Account Deficit

U.S. Current Account Deficit
Author: Sankha Nath Bandyopadhyay
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

United States current account deficit stood at 6.5 per cent of her Gross Domestic product (GDP) in 2005, which is almost twice of her last highest deficit in 3.4 per cent of GDP in 1987. The deficit is primarily grown due to huge merchandise trade deficit which is increasing since 1991s. Several reasons have put forward in order to explain this deficit, for e.g. U.S. budget deficits, low private household savings, increased savings by the rest of the world, China's pegged exchange rate etc. It seems that global economy, particularly emerging economies have grown at the expense of the U.S. current account balance. An important issue is how long this deficit will continue and to what extent other economies will be affected when correction begins. An adjustment with or without government intervention would lead to a substantial depreciation of dollar, which implies a downgrading of dollar as an 'international reserve currency.' The U.S. current account deficit is largely financed through the portfolio investment by the international investors. If the U.S. current account deficit continues, investors may expect dollar to fall further. This indicates a decline in the dollar denominated assets. Though this potential fear appears insignificant at present given that U.S. is a 'safe haven' for international investors, in future this possibility cannot be withered. A huge depreciation of dollar may reduce the deficit, but at the expense of particularly Canada, Mexico, Japan and euro countries in as much as the currencies of these countries are supposed to appreciate most against the dollar, which would affect their export competitiveness. On the other hand, the emerging economies, particularly China, Malaysia and Taiwan are unlikely to be affected given their policy of pegging rates against the dollar.

Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 782
Release: 2002-11-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780226184944

Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.

OECD Economic Surveys: United States 2005

OECD Economic Surveys: United States 2005
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 193
Release: 2005-10-27
Genre:
ISBN: 9264014535

This economic survey examines the key challenges facing the US economy including fiscal sustainability and budgetary discipline, fiscal relations across levels of government, adjustment of the current account, and labour market issues such as trade ...

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 1
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2004-05-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9264016155

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. This issues special features cover housing and mortgage market arrangements, the large US external deficit, stock market gyrations, and structural reform and EU accession.

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 2

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 2
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 237
Release: 2005-01-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9264007784

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. This issues special features cover oil price developments and savings behaviour and the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

How the Fed Moves Markets

How the Fed Moves Markets
Author: Evan A. Schnidman
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 198
Release: 2016-04-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137432586

Central banks have a profound impact on financial markets, and investors struggle to keep informed about their complex policy decisions. Technological and financial developments have transformed the US Federal Reserve Bank from a financial black box into a vocal, increasingly transparent institution—and the result is such a wealth of textual data that clues to future policy decisions may be lost among the details. This book presents a solution to this problem by keeping track of those details. Schnidman and MacMillan demonstrate how the latest advances in automated text analysis, combined with the precision of domain expertise, are the keys to understanding how central banks move markets with their words. The authors outline a method to not only examine every piece of every central bank communication, but to do it in a way that is completely comprehensive and unbiased while quickly yielding hard, quantitative data that can be put to work in modern financial models.