Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission And International Spillovers
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| Author | : Christopher J. Erceg |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 57 |
| Release | : 2024-03-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
We study alternative approaches to the withdrawal of prolonged unconventional monetary stimulus (“exit strategies”) by central banks in large, advanced economies. We first show empirically that large-scale asset purchases affect the exchange rate and domestic and foreign term premiums more strongly than conventional short-term policy rate changes when normalizing by the effects on domestic GDP. We then build a two-country New Keynesian model that features segmented bond markets, cognitive discounting and strategic complementarities in price setting that is consistent with these findings. The model implies that quantitative easing (QE) is the only effective way to provide monetary stimulus when policy rates are persistently constrained by the effective lower bound, and that QE is likely to have larger domestic output effects than quantitative tightening (QT). We demonstrate that “exit strategies” by large advanced economies that rely heavily on QT can trigger sizeable inflation-output tradeoffs in foreign recipient economies through the exchange rate and term premium channels. We also show that these tradeoffs are likely to be stronger in emerging market economies, especially those with fixed exchange rates.
| Author | : Mr. Tobias Adrian |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 27 |
| Release | : 2024-05-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Central banks have come under increasing criticism for large balance sheet losses associated with quantitative easing (QE), and some observers have also argued that QE helped fuel the post-COVID-19 inflation boom. In this paper, we reconsider the conditions under which QE may be warranted considering the recent high inflation experience. We emphasize that the merits of QE should be evaluated based on the macroeconomic stimulus it provides and its effects on the consolidated fiscal position, and not simply on central bank profits or losses. Using an open economy DSGE model with segmented asset markets, we show how QE can provide a sizeable boost to output and inflation in a deep recession and improve the consolidated fiscal position—even if the central bank experiences considerable losses. However, the commitment-based features of QE and the possibility that upside inflation risks are bigger than recognized pre-pandemic call for more caution in using QE closer to full employment. We then consider how central banks might modify their policies for allocating profits to the government in light of large-scale losses. In short, we suggest that a more forward-looking and risk-based approach may be desirable in helping protect central bank financial autonomy and ultimately independence.
| Author | : Philipp Engler |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2024-08-09 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
We provide new evidence on the spillover effects of ECB monetary policy shocks to emerging European economies, using a combination of empirical methods and model-based simulations and focusing on spillovers from interest rate and balance sheet policies implemented by the ECB. We consider an event study set around the ECB policy announcement in June 2022 and also use local projections to estimate regional spillovers in a panel of 16 Emerging European countries spanning 1999 to 2022. Identifying ECB monetary policy shocks as the unexplained component of changes in the three-month Euribor futures rate, we find that ECB monetary policy tightening induces more than one-for-one changes in government bond yields in Emerging Europe, as well as sizable increases in sovereign spreads, domestic currency depreciations, and significantly lower output. Model simulations using a two-country DSGE calibrated to the euro area and its Eastern European neighbors reveal that a conventional tightening, achieved through interest rate increases, provides a more favorable inflation-output trade-off compared to balance sheet tightenings. The extent of spillovers from quantitative tightening depends on the speed of balance sheet reduction, and it is larger under a fixed exchange rate regime.
| Author | : Martin Feldstein |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 500 |
| Release | : 2007-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226241807 |
Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 174 |
| Release | : 2024-10-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
The latest World Economic Outlook reports stable but underwhelming global growth, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. As monetary policy is eased amid continued disinflation, shifting gears is needed to ensure that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path and to rebuild fiscal buffers. Understanding the role of monetary policy in recent global disinflation, and the factors that influence the social acceptability of structural reforms, will be key to promoting stable and more rapid growth in the future.
| Author | : Camila Casas |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 62 |
| Release | : 2017-11-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484330609 |
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2024-03-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : John H. Cochrane |
| Publisher | : Hoover Press |
| Total Pages | : 306 |
| Release | : 2019-04-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0817922369 |
Drawing from their 2018 conference, the Hoover Institution brings together leading academics and monetary policy makers to share ideas about the practical issues facing central banks today. The expert contributors discuss U.S. monetary policy at individual central banks and reform of the international monetary and financial system. The discussion is broken down into seven key areas: 1) International Rules of the Monetary Game; 2) Banking, Trade and the Making of the Dominant Currency; 3) Capital Flows, the IMF's Institutional View and Alternatives; 4) Payments, Credit and Asset Prices; 5) Financial Stability, Regulations and the Balance Sheet; 6) The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet; and 7) Monetary Policy and Reform in Practice. With in-depth discussions of the volatility of capital flows and exchange rates, and the use of balance sheet policy by central banks, they examine relevant research developments and debate policy options.
| Author | : Paramita Mukherjee |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 303 |
| Release | : 2022-01-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9811676682 |
This book provides perspectives on the latest developments and pertinent issues in the Indian financial sector in current times. The reforms initiated in the nineties in the financial sector have transformed the way financial markets and institutions function today. However, certain sectors like banking, and markets like the capital market have undergone sea changes. The research contributions in this book focus on the issues pertaining to such sectors like banking, NBFCs and the stock market. The opening up of financial markets and emergence of institutional investors have been a significant phenomenon in the Indian context. At this backdrop of increasing financial integration, the impact of financial liberalisation on the overall development of the sector, and how the global policies and events influence the Indian financial sector, are analysed in the book. The emergence of new regulations in the capital markets to instill more discipline and transparency, have also changed the way corporates take financing decisions. For example, regulatory authorities are continuously reviewing norms pertaining to issues like promoters’ shareholding owing to risks arising from excessive leverage and the linkages between financial intermediaries. Corporate governance, environmental aspects are some important additions in corporate financing norms in the recent past. The book incorporates a discussion on this, too. Apart from these, the book also has incorporated several aspects on an emerging concept called financial inclusion, its measurement and constraints to achieve the same. And finally, at the backdrop of the disruption created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact on the Indian capital market is also discussed. Contributions are based on rigorous empirical research and incorporate the perspectives of renowned academicians in the field of finance and financial economics across the country. Apart from the research community, this book will also be helpful for financial analysts working in the financial sector to have some idea about the current issues, the direction of research on those issues and different perspectives on them.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 1044 |
| Release | : 2020-03-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9811200572 |
In an era when trade and currency wars threaten to end a long-standing period of growing trade and capital flows, the economics of international trade, investment and finance have become more important than ever. This three-volume Encyclopedia provides a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the theory and evidence on the causes and consequences of global trade, and the theory and evidence on the economics of international trade, financial and monetary transactions.It provides, first of all, a comprehensive set of entries explaining the key theoretical concepts in international economics as well as the latest empirical and simulation techniques used in the academic literature. In addition, various entries present the history behind — and the controversies surrounding — the core current global trade and monetary institutions, from the World Trade Organization to the European Monetary Union.The three volumes also provide a serious discussion of today's central policy debates, including the impact of globalization on employment, wages and income distribution, the imposition of controls on international financial flows, the effects of tariffs and protectionist policies, fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes, and the role of the multinational enterprise on global growth, technical change and income distribution, among many others.
