Can Investors Profit From Security Analyst Recommendations
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| Author | : Sung Jun Park |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper revisits the question of whether investors can benefit from consensus recommendations of stock market analysts in US equity markets. To examine the profitability net of transactions cost, we calculate transactions cost based on effective tick spread. We find that transactions cost becomes noticeably lower from 2001 and the strategy of purchasing 'strong buy' stocks and shorting 'strong sell' stocks yields the abnormal returns of 4.7-5.8% per year during the period of 2001-2016, even after accounting for transactions cost. We also find that 'strong buy (sell)' stocks are growth (value) firms and short-term winners (losers). We discuss our empirical results in the context of market efficiency.
| Author | : Brad M. Barber |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 47 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
In this paper we document that an investment strategy based on the consensus (average) analyst recommendations of security analysts earns positive returns. For the period 1986-1996, a portfolio of stocks most highly recommended by analysts earned an annualized geometric mean return of 18.8 percent, while a portfolio of stocks least favorably recommended earned only 5.78 percent. (In comparison, an investment in a value-weighted market index earned an annualized geometric mean return of 14.5 percent.) Alternatively stated, purchasing stocks most highly recommended yielded a return of 102 basis points per month. The magnitude of this return is surprisingly large, and is far greater than the size effect (negative 16 basis points) and book-to-market effect (17 basis points) for the same period. Even after controlling for these two effects, as well as for price momentum, we show that the strategy of purchasing stocks most highly recommended and selling short those least favorably recommended yielded a return of 75 basis points per month. These results are robust to partitions by time period and overall market direction, and are most pronounced for small and medium-sized firms. The abnormal returns also persist when we allow a lapse of up to 15 days before acting on the investment recommendations. There is no extant theory of asset pricing that explains these results.
| Author | : Shinya Hanamura |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 29 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
In this paper, we study how investors react to security analyst reports. Security companies earn profits by increasing investment volume in the stock market. They manipulate analyst reports through their security analysts and provide information to induce investors to buy stocks. The question is how do investors who know this fact react to such reports? We build a model of investor activity by assuming complementarity among investors who buy a stock. In other words, if an investor buys a stock when its stock price is believed to be high, this purchase induces other investors to buy, which results in increases the stock price. The first investor believes his or her belief to be correct. Based upon this complementarity in the stock market, we use the supermodular game and monotone comparative statics of Milgrom and Roberts (1990a). Then, we study the investment volumes, stock prices, and manipulation ratios of security companies, with the following findings. First, the security company always manipulates analyst reports for expected gains. Therefore, true information is not provided to the market, in which case the investment volume is lower than that in the first best case under perfect information. However, as analyst report precision increases, security companies relax their level of manipulation, although they easily manipulate analyst reports if the analyst precisely forecast the company profit. Under certain circumstances, manipulation leads to higher stock prices and stimulates company production, compared with the first best case. In this paper, we show that complementarity among investors explains the structure of the market, investor behavior, and company production levels in a bull market.
| Author | : Thomas William Phelps |
| Publisher | : Echo Point Books & Media, LLC |
| Total Pages | : 380 |
| Release | : 2021-08-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
In 100 to 1 in the Stock Market, Thomas Phelps discloses the secrets and strategies to increasing your wealth one hundredfold through buy-and-hold investing. Unlike the short-term trading trends that are popular today, Phelps's highly logical, yet radical approach focuses on identifying compounding machines in public markets, buying their stocks, and holding these investments long term for at least ten years. In this indispensable guide, Phelps analyzes what made the big companies of his day so profitable for the diligent, long-term investor. You will learn how to identify and invest in profitable business models without visible growth ceilings that will quickly increase your earnings. Worth its weight in gold (and then some), 100 to 1 in the Stock Market illuminates the way to the path of long-term wealth for you and your heirs. With this classic, yet highly relevant approach, you will pick companies wisely and watch your investments soar! Thomas William Phelps (1902-1992) spent over 40 years in the investing world working as a private investor, columnist, analyst, and financial advisor. His illustrious investing career began just before the stock market crash in 1929 and lasted into the 1970s. In 1927, he began his career with The Wall Street Journal where he was a reporter, news editor, and chief. Beginning in 1936, he edited Barron's National Financial Weekly. From 1949 to 1960, he served as an assistant to the chairman and manager of the economics department at Socony Mobil Oil. Following this venture, he was a partner in the investment firm of Scudder, Stevens & Clark until his retirement in 1970. "One of the five greatest investment books you've never heard of" — The Daily Reckoning"Of all the books on investing that I've read over the years, 100 to 1 in the stock market one was at once, the most pleasurable and most challenging to my own beliefs." — Value Walk (ValueWalk.com) "For years we handed out copies of Mr. Phelps book as bonuses." — Timothy Lutts, Cabot Investing Advice, one of the largest investment advisories and newsletters in the country since 1970
| Author | : Daniel Kreutzmann |
| Publisher | : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH |
| Total Pages | : 141 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3832525297 |
This thesis focuses on the three primitive value drivers of each company valuation model that is based on fundamental analysis: the discount rate, the expected future payoffs during the explicit forecasting period, and the terminal value at the end of the explicit forecasting period. While the first factor is analyzed theoretically by incorporating the government into the classical valuation framework, this thesis studies the other two factors by investigating forecasts made by professional investors, i.e. financial analysts. In the first part we show that the government's and the shareholders discount rate usually differ and analyze how the government's and shareholders different objectives lead to conflicts in the context of capital budgeting. The empirical part of this thesis shows that macroeconomic information is frequently used by financial analysts when updating their earnings expecations and that target price forecastsmade by financial analysts can be used to predict abnormal returns.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 524 |
| Release | : 1983 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Financial Services. Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 288 |
| Release | : 2001 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Roger K. Loh |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 153 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Business analysts |
| ISBN | : |
Abstract: I examine the role of sell-side security analysts in financial markets. The first essay addresses the stylized fact that investors' reaction to stock recommendations is often incomplete so that there is a predictable post-recommendation drift. I investigate whether investor inattention contributes to this drift by using turnover as a proxy for attention. I find that the recommendation drift of firms with low prior turnover is more than double in magnitude compared to that of firms with high prior turnover. Volume reactions around the recommendation show that investors fail to react promptly to recommendations issued on low attention stocks. Together, the evidence suggests that investor inattention is a plausible explanation for investors' underreaction to stock recommendations. The second essay studies conflict of interests in analyst research. Analyst research is alleged to be biased because analysts' employers underwrite securities for the firms covered. I argue that this analyst affiliation bias should be strongest for firms with a desire to over-inflate stock prices. Using stock recommendations data, I find that the analyst affiliation bias is on average pervasive across all firms in the bull-market years of 1994-2000. In the regulatory reform years of 2001-2006, only poorly governed firms, firms whose CEO wealth is highly sensitive to stock price, and negative prior return firms continue to exhibit the affiliation bias while the bias mostly disappears for all other firms. Examining the market's reaction around stock recommendations shows that the market does not sufficiently discount the fact that affiliated analyst optimism is more serious for some firms. The third essay investigates the market's response to trends and reversals in earnings surprises where earnings surprises are defined as firms' reported earnings less analysts' consensus forecasts. Trends are defined as consecutive same-signed earnings surprises while reversals occur when the sign of the most recent surprise differs from the prior surprises. I find significantly stronger return drift following trends than reversals. In comparison to reversals, trends are associated with greater predictability in subsequent analyst forecast revisions. These results are inconsistent with representativeness and conservatism causing return drift and could be consistent with the gambler's fallacy in Rabin (2002).
| Author | : Caterina Cruciani |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 170 |
| Release | : 2017-11-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319682342 |
This book looks at financial advisory from a behavioural perspective, and focuses on how the nature of the relationship between advisors and clients may affect the ability of the advisor to perform its functions. Broken into three key parts, the book looks at the client, the advisor, and the relationship between the two. Chapters review relevant theories of decision-making under risk to understand the nature of clients’ decisions. The literature on advisors’ functions and the normative landscape regulating financial advisory are also addressed. Finally, this book reviews how behavioural finance has traditionally addressed portfolio selection and explains how trust can be seen as a viable avenue to maximize advisors’ effectiveness and pursue clients’ needs. This book will be of interest to both behavioural finance scholars and practitioners interested in understanding what the future of financial advisory may have in stock.
| Author | : Aswath Damodaran |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 615 |
| Release | : 2012-06-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1118235614 |
The guide for investors who want a better understanding of investment strategies that have stood the test of time This thoroughly revised and updated edition of Investment Philosophies covers different investment philosophies and reveal the beliefs that underlie each one, the evidence on whether the strategies that arise from the philosophy actually produce results, and what an investor needs to bring to the table to make the philosophy work. The book covers a wealth of strategies including indexing, passive and activist value investing, growth investing, chart/technical analysis, market timing, arbitrage, and many more investment philosophies. Presents the tools needed to understand portfolio management and the variety of strategies available to achieve investment success Explores the process of creating and managing a portfolio Shows readers how to profit like successful value growth index investors Aswath Damodaran is a well-known academic and practitioner in finance who is an expert on different approaches to valuation and investment This vital resource examines various investing philosophies and provides you with helpful online resources and tools to fully investigate each investment philosophy and assess whether it is a philosophy that is appropriate for you.
