Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability

Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability
Author: Selim Elekdag
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2019-11-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513522256

This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional distributions reveal that, while higher growth would raise profits on average, a large swath of banks would most likely continue to struggle even amid a strong economic recovery. Therefore, for some banks, a determined reduction in NPLs combined with cost efficiency improvements and customized changes to their business models appears to be the most promising strategy for durably raising profitability.

Breaking the Bank?

Breaking the Bank?
Author: Selim Elekdag
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional distributions reveal that, while higher growth would raise profits on average, a large swath of banks would most likely continue to struggle even amid a strong economic recovery. Therefore, for some banks, a determined reduction in NPLs combined with cost efficiency improvements and customized changes to their business models appears to be the most promising strategy for durably raising profitability.

Euro Area Policies

Euro Area Policies
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 94
Release: 2018-07-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484369599

This technical note consists of five chapters focusing on various aspects of systemic risk analysis across the euro area financial system. The chapters cover bank profitability, balance sheet- and market-based interconnected analysis, contingent claims analysis, and a brief discussion of data gaps in the nonbank, non-insurance (NBNI) financial sector. The ongoing economic recovery will support euro area bank profitability in general, but it is unlikely to resolve the structural challenges faced by the least profitable banks despite some recent improvements. This is important because persistently weak bank profitability is a systemic financial stability concern. Empirical analysis of 109 major euro area banks over 2007–2016 reveals that real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are the most reliable determinants of profitability, after accounting for other factors. Although higher growth would raise profits, a large swath of banks with the weakest profitability would most likely continue to struggle even with a robust recovery. Therefore, banks should take advantage of the current upswing by resolutely addressing their NPL stocks—such a strategy holds the most promise for weak banks’ profitability prospects.

Banking in Europe

Banking in Europe
Author: Mariarosa Borroni
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 118
Release: 2019-04-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030150135

This Palgrave Pivot provides a comprehensive overview of the dynamics that are affecting the profitability of European banks since the recent crisis period. More specifically, it sheds light on the most crucial changes in profit generation and on the consequential changes in banking strategies due to fiercer competition, reduced margin and changing regulation. The work is divided in four main parts. The first section introduces the changes in bank management policies, considering the periods before and since the crisis. In the second section, the authors review the literature on bank profitability and outline the main determinants of profit generation, and in the third section they provide a cross-country analysis of profitability for a wide sample of European banks during the great financial crisis. In the last section, the authors discuss the results of the quantitative analysis under the new regulatory and competitive framework that is progressively affecting the banking sector (fintech, Basel regulations, etc.). This book will be of interest to academics, researchers and students of European banking.

Euro Area Policies

Euro Area Policies
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 86
Release: 2018-07-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484369289

Overall the resilience of large euro area banks has improved, but important vulnerabilities remain. Capital buffers are in aggregate sizeable relative to immediate threats, but some banks are especially vulnerable to credit risk and others to market risks, including a substantial rise in risk premia. The banking system as a whole has ample liquidity, against a backdrop of ECB support. At a structural level, low profitability is found in many banks across all business models, despite improving conjunctural conditions. The interconnectedness analysis shows that strong buffers are effective in dampening both vulnerabilities and onward transmission. Risks to financial stability relate mainly to tighter financial conditions, weaker growth, and policy and geopolitical uncertainties. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) could potentially disrupt financial market and services, and thus the wider economy. Also, policy reversals could hurt debt sustainability and test the cohesion of policy making in the union.

Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle

Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle
Author: Ms.Enrica Detragiache
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2018-05-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484354540

The paper investigates EU banks’ profitability through the recent financial cycle using banklevel balance sheet and income statement data. We find that banks that were more successful at protecting their profits had a less pronounced deterioration in loan quality and a larger improvement in cost efficiency. They also downsized their assets more aggressively during the crisis, and reduced reliance on wholesale funding more markedly post-crisis. Net interest margins remained broadly stable over the financial cycle, including post-crisis, and there is no clear evidence that aspects of bank business model, such as higher reliance on fees and commission income, were associated with better profitability post-crisis.

What Happened to Profitability?

What Happened to Profitability?
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN: 9789295085121

This paper uses a newly constructed dataset including financial statement information of 310 banks in the euro area to analyse the evolution of bank profitability before and after the Global Financial Crisis and the subsequent European crisis. We first document the general trends in the changes in banks' profitability with a particular focus on country and bank heterogeneity. We find that the profitability of banks in different parts of the monetary union was hit by multiple shocks of different nature. Based on this, we then propose an econometric analysis of the drivers behind the evolution of bank profitability by discriminating factors relative to macroeconomic conditions, bank funding and portfolio structures, and new banking regulations in the euro area.

Bank Profitability in Europe: Not Here to Stay

Bank Profitability in Europe: Not Here to Stay
Author: Ms. Ruo Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2024-07-09
Genre:
ISBN:

Slower passthrough of policy interest rate hikes to deposit rates relative to their loan rates has led to sharply wider bank net interest margins. Combined with resilient asset quality, wider net interest margins supported record profits for European banks in 2023. Drawing on historical data from the balance sheets and income statements of over 2,500 European banks, this paper shows that abnormally high profits are expected to fade soon as interest income will decline, once policy rates start being lowered, while higher impairment costs historically have weighed on profits with a lag. Moreover, a number of structural factors that have eroded the performance of European banks in the past two decades have largely remained unaddressed and will continue being a drag on profits and capital. Therefore, policymakers should encourage banks to preserve capital buffers and build resilience to future shocks, while exercising caution when considering taxes on profits or other measures that could divert potential sources of capital from banks.

Handbook of Banking and Finance in Emerging Markets

Handbook of Banking and Finance in Emerging Markets
Author: Nguyen, Duc K.
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 867
Release: 2022-10-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1800880901

Emerging markets are increasingly facing significant challenges, from a slowdown in productivity, rising debt, and trade tensions to the adverse effects of proliferating global uncertainty on domestic financial systems. This incisive Handbook examines the ongoing dynamics of global financial markets and institutions within the context of such rising uncertainty and provides a comprehensive overview of innovative models in banking and finance.

COVID-19: How Will European Banks Fare?

COVID-19: How Will European Banks Fare?
Author: Mr.Shekhar Aiyar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 114
Release: 2021-03-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513572776

This paper evaluates the impact of the crisis on European banks’ capital under a range of macroeconomic scenarios, using granular data on the size and riskiness of sectoral exposures. The analysis incorporates the important role of pandemic-related policy support, including not only regulatory relief for banks, but also policies to support businesses and households, which act to shield the financial sector from the real economic shock.