Brazil: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil

Brazil: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2021-09-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513594915

Economic performance has been much better than expected, in part due to the authorities’ forceful policy response. Nevertheless, Brazil’s long-standing challenges of low growth, high debt, and elevated levels of poverty and inequality have been exacerbated by the pandemic. Tragically, more than 550,000 Brazilians have died from COVID-19.

Chile: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile

Chile: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 78
Release: 2021-04-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151357289X

The Chilean economy has been hit by the pandemic while recovering from the social unrest in late 2019, requiring substantial adjustment of economic policies and the appropriate use of existing policy buffers. Following a sharp decline in mid-2020, economic activity started recovering in 2020H2 in the wake of ample policy stimulus. Inflation remains near the policy target, with inflation expectations anchored, and the current account balance has improved amid a sharp drop in imports and relatively resilient exports. Fiscal and monetary policies remain guided by the structural fiscal balance rule and the inflation-targeting framework, respectively. Beyond the pandemic-related risks, there is uncertainty stemming from a series of elections and the outcome of a New Constitution process—scheduled to finish in mid-2022—which are expected to shape the public discourse and influence the policy agenda.

Colombia: 2022 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia

Colombia: 2022 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 85
Release: 2022-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Colombia’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 with 10.6 percent growth led by pent-up domestic demand, notably private consumption. Around 66 percent of the population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19 as of end-February and the economy continues to reopen more fully. While GDP has already reached pre-pandemic levels, employment has trailed in its recovery and macroeconomic imbalances have emerged. Amid strong demand, supply constraints, and rising commodity prices, rising inflation exceeded the upper limit of the central bank’s tolerance range in 2021. With demand-led growth and higher import prices, the current account deficit widened to 53⁄4 percent of GDP. Under staff’s assumptions for the evolution of the pandemic, above-potential growth around 51⁄2 percent is expected in 2022, led by robust household consumption and a continued recovery of investment and exports. External vulnerabilities remain elevated with high external financing needs and tighter financial conditions. External risks remain elevated and an intensification of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may impart considerable volatility in financial and commodity markets. Domestic risks are also tilted to the downside—including uncertainty around the evolution of the pandemic, political uncertainty with national elections this year, and slower implementation of the infrastructure agenda and peace accords.

Montenegro: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro

Montenegro: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 76
Release: 2022-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.

Brazil

Brazil
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 99
Release: 2023-07-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

After a rapid recovery from the pandemic, economic activity is converging towards potential levels. Headline inflation has rapidly declined from last year’s peak, but core inflation remains elevated, and inflation expectations are above target. To address cost-of-living concerns, the new government expanded the 2023 budget envelope, while identifying measures to recover tax revenues. The authorities are also embarking on an ambitious agenda to steer a sustainable, inclusive, and green economy.

Republic of Congo: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Congo

Republic of Congo: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Congo
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 104
Release: 2021-10-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513595512

The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks have taken a deep toll on the Congolese economy, weighing on incomes and inequality. Debt sustainability challenges precluded Fund financial assistance during the pandemic, and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, approved in 2019, expired in April 2021 without having completed the first review. Recently, debt sustainability has been restored owing to the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy and current and projected higher oil prices. However, the risk of debt distress remains high given liquidity risks and vulnerabilities to negative oil price shocks. The authorities are actively negotiating the resolution of pending external arrears. Until this process is concluded and the negotiations with two external creditors are finalized, debt is classified as being “in distress.”

Brazil

Brazil
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 76
Release: 2017-07-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484309898

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brazil’s deep recession appears close to an end. The recession, triggered by large macroeconomic imbalances and a loss of confidence, was exacerbated by declining terms of trade, tight financing conditions, and a political crisis. Growth is projected to be 0.3 percent in 2017 and 1.3 percent in 2018, moving toward 2 percent in the medium term. Inflation is projected to undershoot its central target of 4.5 percent in 2017 and 2018. The forecast assumes that a sufficiently strong set of measures are put in place to ensure fiscal sustainability. Political instability and spillovers from the corruption investigation are major sources of risk that could threaten the reform agenda and the recovery.

People’s Republic of China: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China

People’s Republic of China: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 134
Release: 2022-01-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.

Peru: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru

Peru: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 93
Release: 2022-05-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.

Sri Lanka: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka
Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 95
Release: 2022-03-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

COVID-19 severely hit the economy, causing a loss of tourism receipts and necessitating several strict lockdowns. Pre-pandemic tax cuts and the impact of COVID-19 led to fiscal deficits larger than 10 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2021 and a rapid increase in public debt to 119 percent of GDP in 2021. Sri Lanka’s access to international capital markets was lost in 2020, prompting a decline of international reserves to critically low levels and large-scale direct lending to the government by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). External debt repayments and a widening current account deficit have led to foreign exchange (FX) shortages, while the official exchange rate has been de facto fixed since April 2021. Inflation is on the rise, reaching double digits in December 2021, reflecting imported inflation, supply shocks, and a pickup in domestic demand amid loose monetary policy.