Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice
Author: Arnaud Doucet
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 590
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1475734379

Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Nonlinear Discrete-Time Filtering

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Nonlinear Discrete-Time Filtering
Author: Marcelo G.
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 87
Release: 2022-06-01
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3031025350

In these notes, we introduce particle filtering as a recursive importance sampling method that approximates the minimum-mean-square-error (MMSE) estimate of a sequence of hidden state vectors in scenarios where the joint probability distribution of the states and the observations is non-Gaussian and, therefore, closed-form analytical expressions for the MMSE estimate are generally unavailable. We begin the notes with a review of Bayesian approaches to static (i.e., time-invariant) parameter estimation. In the sequel, we describe the solution to the problem of sequential state estimation in linear, Gaussian dynamic models, which corresponds to the well-known Kalman (or Kalman-Bucy) filter. Finally, we move to the general nonlinear, non-Gaussian stochastic filtering problem and present particle filtering as a sequential Monte Carlo approach to solve that problem in a statistically optimal way. We review several techniques to improve the performance of particle filters, including importance function optimization, particle resampling, Markov Chain Monte Carlo move steps, auxiliary particle filtering, and regularized particle filtering. We also discuss Rao-Blackwellized particle filtering as a technique that is particularly well-suited for many relevant applications such as fault detection and inertial navigation. Finally, we conclude the notes with a discussion on the emerging topic of distributed particle filtering using multiple processors located at remote nodes in a sensor network. Throughout the notes, we often assume a more general framework than in most introductory textbooks by allowing either the observation model or the hidden state dynamic model to include unknown parameters. In a fully Bayesian fashion, we treat those unknown parameters also as random variables. Using suitable dynamic conjugate priors, that approach can be applied then to perform joint state and parameter estimation. Table of Contents: Introduction / Bayesian Estimation of Static Vectors / The Stochastic Filtering Problem / Sequential Monte Carlo Methods / Sampling/Importance Resampling (SIR) Filter / Importance Function Selection / Markov Chain Monte Carlo Move Step / Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters / Auxiliary Particle Filter / Regularized Particle Filters / Cooperative Filtering with Multiple Observers / Application Examples / Summary

Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing

Bayesian Filtering and Smoothing
Author: Simo Särkkä
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 255
Release: 2013-09-05
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 110703065X

A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.

Accelerating Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference in dynamical models

Accelerating Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference in dynamical models
Author: Johan Dahlin
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Total Pages: 139
Release: 2016-03-22
Genre:
ISBN: 9176857972

Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.

Bayesian Theory and Applications

Bayesian Theory and Applications
Author: Paul Damien
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 717
Release: 2013-01-24
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0199695601

This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field.

Bayesian Estimation and Tracking

Bayesian Estimation and Tracking
Author: Anton J. Haug
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 400
Release: 2012-05-29
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1118287800

A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation of all tracking algorithms within a Bayesian framework and describes effective numerical methods for evaluating density-weighted integrals, including linear and nonlinear Kalman filters for Gaussian-weighted integrals and particle filters for non-Gaussian cases. The author first emphasizes detailed derivations from first principles of eeach estimation method and goes on to use illustrative and detailed step-by-step instructions for each method that makes coding of the tracking filter simple and easy to understand. Case studies are employed to showcase applications of the discussed topics. In addition, the book supplies block diagrams for each algorithm, allowing readers to develop their own MATLAB® toolbox of estimation methods. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking is an excellent book for courses on estimation and tracking methods at the graduate level. The book also serves as a valuable reference for research scientists, mathematicians, and engineers seeking a deeper understanding of the topics.

Instrument Engineers' Handbook, Volume 3

Instrument Engineers' Handbook, Volume 3
Author: Bela G. Liptak
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 1142
Release: 2018-10-08
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1351832980

Instrument Engineers' Handbook – Volume 3: Process Software and Digital Networks, Fourth Edition is the latest addition to an enduring collection that industrial automation (AT) professionals often refer to as the "bible." First published in 1970, the entire handbook is approximately 5,000 pages, designed as standalone volumes that cover the measurement (Volume 1), control (Volume 2), and software (Volume 3) aspects of automation. This fourth edition of the third volume provides an in-depth, state-of-the-art review of control software packages used in plant optimization, control, maintenance, and safety. Each updated volume of this renowned reference requires about ten years to prepare, so revised installments have been issued every decade, taking into account the numerous developments that occur from one publication to the next. Assessing the rapid evolution of automation and optimization in control systems used in all types of industrial plants, this book details the wired/wireless communications and software used. This includes the ever-increasing number of applications for intelligent instruments, enhanced networks, Internet use, virtual private networks, and integration of control systems with the main networks used by management, all of which operate in a linked global environment. Topics covered include: Advances in new displays, which help operators to more quickly assess and respond to plant conditions Software and networks that help monitor, control, and optimize industrial processes, to determine the efficiency, energy consumption, and profitability of operations Strategies to counteract changes in market conditions and energy and raw material costs Techniques to fortify the safety of plant operations and the security of digital communications systems This volume explores why the holistic approach to integrating process and enterprise networks is convenient and efficient, despite associated problems involving cyber and local network security, energy conservation, and other issues. It shows how firewalls must separate the business (IT) and the operation (automation technology, or AT) domains to guarantee the safe function of all industrial plants. This book illustrates how these concerns must be addressed using effective technical solutions and proper management policies and practices. Reinforcing the fact that all industrial control systems are, in general, critically interdependent, this handbook provides a wide range of software application examples from industries including: automotive, mining, renewable energy, steel, dairy, pharmaceutical, mineral processing, oil, gas, electric power, utility, and nuclear power.

Bayesian Inference of State Space Models

Bayesian Inference of State Space Models
Author: Kostas Triantafyllopoulos
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 503
Release: 2021-11-12
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 303076124X

Bayesian Inference of State Space Models: Kalman Filtering and Beyond offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian estimation and forecasting for state space models. The celebrated Kalman filter, with its numerous extensions, takes centre stage in the book. Univariate and multivariate models, linear Gaussian, non-linear and non-Gaussian models are discussed with applications to signal processing, environmetrics, economics and systems engineering. Over the past years there has been a growing literature on Bayesian inference of state space models, focusing on multivariate models as well as on non-linear and non-Gaussian models. The availability of time series data in many fields of science and industry on the one hand, and the development of low-cost computational capabilities on the other, have resulted in a wealth of statistical methods aimed at parameter estimation and forecasting. This book brings together many of these methods, presenting an accessible and comprehensive introduction to state space models. A number of data sets from different disciplines are used to illustrate the methods and show how they are applied in practice. The R package BTSA, created for the book, includes many of the algorithms and examples presented. The book is essentially self-contained and includes a chapter summarising the prerequisites in undergraduate linear algebra, probability and statistics. An up-to-date and complete account of state space methods, illustrated by real-life data sets and R code, this textbook will appeal to a wide range of students and scientists, notably in the disciplines of statistics, systems engineering, signal processing, data science, finance and econometrics. With numerous exercises in each chapter, and prerequisite knowledge conveniently recalled, it is suitable for upper undergraduate and graduate courses.

Instrument Engineers' Handbook

Instrument Engineers' Handbook
Author: Bela G. Liptak
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 1142
Release: 2011-08-19
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1439817766

Instrument Engineers' Handbook – Volume 3: Process Software and Digital Networks, Fourth Edition is the latest addition to an enduring collection that industrial automation (AT) professionals often refer to as the "bible." First published in 1970, the entire handbook is approximately 5,000 pages, designed as standalone volumes that cover the measurement (Volume 1), control (Volume 2), and software (Volume 3) aspects of automation. This fourth edition of the third volume provides an in-depth, state-of-the-art review of control software packages used in plant optimization, control, maintenance, and safety. Each updated volume of this renowned reference requires about ten years to prepare, so revised installments have been issued every decade, taking into account the numerous developments that occur from one publication to the next. Assessing the rapid evolution of automation and optimization in control systems used in all types of industrial plants, this book details the wired/wireless communications and software used. This includes the ever-increasing number of applications for intelligent instruments, enhanced networks, Internet use, virtual private networks, and integration of control systems with the main networks used by management, all of which operate in a linked global environment. Topics covered include: Advances in new displays, which help operators to more quickly assess and respond to plant conditions Software and networks that help monitor, control, and optimize industrial processes, to determine the efficiency, energy consumption, and profitability of operations Strategies to counteract changes in market conditions and energy and raw material costs Techniques to fortify the safety of plant operations and the security of digital communications systems This volume explores why the holistic approach to integrating process and enterprise networks is convenient and efficient, despite associated problems involving cyber and local network security, energy conservation, and other issues. It shows how firewalls must separate the business (IT) and the operation (automation technology, or AT) domains to guarantee the safe function of all industrial plants. This book illustrates how these concerns must be addressed using effective technical solutions and proper management policies and practices. Reinforcing the fact that all industrial control systems are, in general, critically interdependent, this handbook provides a wide range of software application examples from industries including: automotive, mining, renewable energy, steel, dairy, pharmaceutical, mineral processing, oil, gas, electric power, utility, and nuclear power.