Numerical Approaches for Sequential Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design

Numerical Approaches for Sequential Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design
Author: Xun Huan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 186
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

Experimental data play a crucial role in developing and refining models of physical systems. Some experiments can be more valuable than others, however. Well-chosen experiments can save substantial resources, and hence optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to quantify and maximize the value of experimental data. Common current practice for designing a sequence of experiments uses suboptimal approaches: batch (open-loop) design that chooses all experiments simultaneously with no feedback of information, or greedy (myopic) design that optimally selects the next experiment without accounting for future observations and dynamics. In contrast, sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) is free of these limitations. With the goal of acquiring experimental data that are optimal for model parameter inference, we develop a rigorous Bayesian formulation for OED using an objective that incorporates a measure of information gain. This framework is first demonstrated in a batch design setting, and then extended to sOED using a dynamic programming (DP) formulation. We also develop new numerical tools for sOED to accommodate nonlinear models with continuous (and often unbounded) parameter, design, and observation spaces. Two major techniques are employed to make solution of the DP problem computationally feasible. First, the optimal policy is sought using a one-step lookahead representation combined with approximate value iteration. This approximate dynamic programming method couples backward induction and regression to construct value function approximations. It also iteratively generates trajectories via exploration and exploitation to further improve approximation accuracy in frequently visited regions of the state space. Second, transport maps are used to represent belief states, which reflect the intermediate posteriors within the sequential design process. Transport maps offer a finite-dimensional representation of these generally non-Gaussian random variables, and also enable fast approximate Bayesian inference, which must be performed millions of times under nested combinations of optimization and Monte Carlo sampling. The overall sOED algorithm is demonstrated and verified against analytic solutions on a simple linear-Gaussian model. Its advantages over batch and greedy designs are then shown via a nonlinear application of optimal sequential sensing: inferring contaminant source location from a sensor in a time-dependent convection-diffusion system. Finally, the capability of the algorithm is tested for multidimensional parameter and design spaces in a more complex setting of the source inversion problem.

Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data

Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data
Author: Marie Davidian
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 360
Release: 2017-11-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1351428152

Nonlinear measurement data arise in a wide variety of biological and biomedical applications, such as longitudinal clinical trials, studies of drug kinetics and growth, and the analysis of assay and laboratory data. Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data provides the first unified development of methods and models for data of this type, with a detailed treatment of inference for the nonlinear mixed effects and its extensions. A particular strength of the book is the inclusion of several detailed case studies from the areas of population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, immunoassay and bioassay development and the analysis of growth curves.

Sequential Design of Experiments for Nonlinear Models

Sequential Design of Experiments for Nonlinear Models
Author: G. E. P. BOX
Publisher:
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1963
Genre:
ISBN:

To engineers, basic mechanism studies are of interest principally because a deeper understanding makes it possible to cope with engineering design problems in a more intelligent and useful manner than would be possible if the mechanism were entirely unknown. Such mechanism studies consist essentially of two steps: (i) establishing an adequate form for the theoretical model and then (ii) determining precisely the values of its parameters. In this paper it is supposed that step (i) has been accomplished and the form of the theoretical model is therefore known. The problem which confronts the experimenter now is the evaluation of the physical parameters (e.g., rate constants in chemical kinetics examples). The purpose of this paper is to consider the problem of generation of data, i.e., the statistical design of experiments.

Model-Oriented Design of Experiments

Model-Oriented Design of Experiments
Author: Valerii V. Fedorov
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1461207037

Here, the authors explain the basic ideas so as to generate interest in modern problems of experimental design. The topics discussed include designs for inference based on nonlinear models, designs for models with random parameters and stochastic processes, designs for model discrimination and incorrectly specified (contaminated) models, as well as examples of designs in functional spaces. Since the authors avoid technical details, the book assumes only a moderate background in calculus, matrix algebra, and statistics. However, at many places, hints are given as to how readers may enhance and adopt the basic ideas for advanced problems or applications. This allows the book to be used for courses at different levels, as well as serving as a useful reference for graduate students and researchers in statistics and engineering.

Optimal Design for Nonlinear Response Models

Optimal Design for Nonlinear Response Models
Author: Valerii V. Fedorov
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 404
Release: 2013-07-15
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1439821518

Optimal Design for Nonlinear Response Models discusses the theory and applications of model-based experimental design with a strong emphasis on biopharmaceutical studies. The book draws on the authors’ many years of experience in academia and the pharmaceutical industry. While the focus is on nonlinear models, the book begins with an explanation of the key ideas, using linear models as examples. Applying the linearization in the parameter space, it then covers nonlinear models and locally optimal designs as well as minimax, optimal on average, and Bayesian designs. The authors also discuss adaptive designs, focusing on procedures with non-informative stopping. The common goals of experimental design—such as reducing costs, supporting efficient decision making, and gaining maximum information under various constraints—are often the same across diverse applied areas. Ethical and regulatory aspects play a much more prominent role in biological, medical, and pharmaceutical research. The authors address all of these issues through many examples in the book.

Adaptive Designs for Sequential Treatment Allocation

Adaptive Designs for Sequential Treatment Allocation
Author: Alessandro Baldi Antognini
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 210
Release: 2015-04-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1466505761

Adaptive Designs for Sequential Treatment Allocation presents a rigorous theoretical treatment of the results and mathematical foundation of adaptive design theory. The book focuses on designing sequential randomized experiments to compare two or more treatments incorporating information accrued along the way. The authors first introduce the terminology and statistical models most commonly used in comparative experiments. They then illustrate biased coin and urn designs that only take into account past treatment allocations as well as designs that use past data, such as sequential maximum likelihood and various types of doubly adaptive designs. The book also covers multipurpose adaptive experiments involving utilitarian choices and ethical issues. It ends with adaptive methods that include covariates in the design. The appendices present basic tools of optimal design theory and address Bayesian adaptive designs. This book helps readers fully understand the theoretical properties behind various adaptive designs. Readers are then equipped to choose the best design for their experiment.

Optimum Experimental Designs, With SAS

Optimum Experimental Designs, With SAS
Author: Anthony Atkinson
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 528
Release: 2007-05-24
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9780199296590

This text focuses on optimum experimental design using SAS, a powerful software package that provides a complete set of statistical tools including analysis of variance, regression, categorical data analysis, and multivariate analysis. SAS codes, results, plots, numerous figures and tables are provided, along with a fully supported website.