Assessing Global Potential Output Growth and the US Neutral Rate

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth and the US Neutral Rate
Author: Salma Ahmed
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre: Interest rates
ISBN:

"We present the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth and the US neutral rate of interest. Both estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis in the April 2023 Monetary Policy Report"--Summary, page 1.

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth
Author: Patrick Alexander
Publisher:
Total Pages: 7
Release: 2017
Genre: Economic forecasting
ISBN:

"This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. This gradual increase is expected to be broad-based, reflecting growth-enhancing reforms in oil-importing emerging-market economies (excluding China) and in the euro area and the diminishing drag on investment in commodity-producing regions stemming from the 2014-15 decline in commodity prices. Potential output growth in the United States is expected to rise modestly through 2019 driven by a small recovery in trend total factor productivity growth. China is the only major economy where potential output growth is expected to slow, albeit moderately, as it gradually transitions to a more sustainable growth path featuring slower investment growth"--Abstract, p. [3] of cover.

Projecting Potential Output

Projecting Potential Output
Author: Sebastian Hauptmeier
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 201
Release: 2009-04-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3790821772

In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.