Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations

Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2016-06-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498345581

Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these considerations involves careful analysis and judgment. Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment, informed by a broad range of tools. This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.

Assessing Fiscal Space

Assessing Fiscal Space
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2018-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498309046

This paper reviews the experience with the fiscal space assessment framework that was piloted during 2017–18. In 2016, staff proposed an operational definition of fiscal space and a new four-stage framework for its assessment. These were discussed informally by the Board in June, and a Board paper “Assessing Fiscal Space: An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations” incorporating Directors’ views was published in December. Fiscal space was narrowly defined as the room for undertaking discretionary fiscal policy relative to existing plans without endangering market access and debt sustainability. The framework was developed in response to the need to provide a more systematic approach to assessing fiscal space in the Fund’s surveillance. It was designed as a tool to inform the availability of fiscal space over a 3 to 4 year horizon for discretionary action, as opposed to the optimality of its use. Indeed, it was stressed that the availability of space does not necessarily mean that it should be used or should not be further expanded. The framework was piloted in the Article IV consultations of 34 advanced economies and emerging markets, comprising almost 80 percent of global GDP in PPP terms.

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 257
Release: 2015-04-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344658

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice
Author: Craig Burnside
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 312
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780821358740

Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.

Assessing Fiscal Space

Assessing Fiscal Space
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2018-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498309275

This paper reviews the experience with the fiscal space assessment framework that was piloted during 2017–18. In 2016, staff proposed an operational definition of fiscal space and a new four-stage framework for its assessment. These were discussed informally by the Board in June, and a Board paper “Assessing Fiscal Space: An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations” incorporating Directors’ views was published in December. Fiscal space was narrowly defined as the room for undertaking discretionary fiscal policy relative to existing plans without endangering market access and debt sustainability. The framework was developed in response to the need to provide a more systematic approach to assessing fiscal space in the Fund’s surveillance. It was designed as a tool to inform the availability of fiscal space over a 3 to 4 year horizon for discretionary action, as opposed to the optimality of its use. Indeed, it was stressed that the availability of space does not necessarily mean that it should be used or should not be further expanded. The framework was piloted in the Article IV consultations of 34 advanced economies and emerging markets, comprising almost 80 percent of global GDP in PPP terms.

Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management

Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management
Author: Mr.Jack Diamond
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 84
Release: 1999-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781557757876

Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 1998-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451844239

Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.

Republic of Moldova

Republic of Moldova
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2017-12-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484334922

This paper highlights the case of Moldova including public investment, efficiency, and growth. The scale up of public investment in Moldova should account for absorption capacity constraints and high reliance on external financing, to ensure a positive impact on growth. It should also be accompanied by efforts to build capacity and strengthen institutions. Public investment in Moldova relies significantly on external loans and grants to finance capital spending. The share of foreign financing varies across sectors, with agriculture and health relying significantly on donor support and education financed mostly domestically. Critical infrastructure needs in Moldova broadly correspond to the priority sectors identified in the National Development Strategy Moldova 2020: energy, transport, agriculture, health, and education. In general, infrastructure in Moldova ranks better regarding coverage than quality. Moldova has a relatively high index of public investment efficiency; nonetheless there are a number of dimensions to improve investment process.

Strengthening the Euro Area

Strengthening the Euro Area
Author: Mr.Romain A Duval
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2019-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498319742

The SDN will focus mostly on EA countries but also touch on other AEs for comparison purposes. The SDN will make several original contributions in each of the areas above based on new DSGE-model-based analysis, cross-country panel regressions, and individual-level (firm- or household-level) empirical work where appropriate.

Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth

Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth
Author: Mr.James Daniel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 80
Release: 2006-08-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781589065130

The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.