Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market

Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market
Author: Ding Ding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2017-11-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484329317

China’s real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house prices rise further beyond “fundamental” levels and the bubble expands to smaller cities, it would increase the likelihood and costs of a sharp correction, which would weaken growth, undermine financial stability, reduce local government spending room, and spur capital outflows. Empirical analysis suggests that the increasing intensity of macroprudential policies tailored to local conditions is appropriate. The government should expand its toolkit to include additional macroprudential measures and push forward reforms to address the fundamental imbalances in the residential housing market.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 517
Release: 2016-06-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 022639574X

This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market

Stabilizing China’s Housing Market
Author: Richard Koss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2018-04-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484348559

The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

The Chinese Real Estate Market

The Chinese Real Estate Market
Author: Junjian Albert Cao
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 407
Release: 2015-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317934970

This is the first book to fully present, analyse and interpret the Chinese real estate market. Dr Junjian Albert Cao examines the Chinese real estate market’s growth trajectory, unique governance and factors affecting values and investment in the context of reforms, rapid economic growth and urbanization. The book provides essential insights into the institutional change surrounding the development of the property market, government intervention at local and national levels, taxes and other regulatory charges, and factors such as market practices, economic changes, government policies and social changes that affect the value of real estate. Furthermore, the book analyses academic and policy debates on issues such as: commercial property investment housing price inflation property rights protection affordable and social housing market practices and regulation environment and sustainability taxation property-led growth and the reliance of local economic growth on the property sector The book offers a comprehensive, in-depth and up-to-date account of the Chinese property market and presents a full assessment of the investment potential of Chinese real estate. It is a must read for students, academics and real estate professionals interested in this fascinating real estate market that has implications for Chinese and the world economies.

China's Housing Reform and Outcomes

China's Housing Reform and Outcomes
Author: Joyce Yanyun Man
Publisher: Lincoln Inst of Land Policy
Total Pages: 260
Release: 2011
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9781558442115

This in-depth volume explains China's residential construction boom and reviews how some established trends are likely to challenge its housing market in coming years. It draws on household surveys and public data in China and provides important lessons about housing policy for China and other countries.

Housing Affordability and Housing Policy in Urban China

Housing Affordability and Housing Policy in Urban China
Author: Zan Yang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 141
Release: 2014-01-25
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 3642540449

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of housing affordability under the economic reforms and social transformations in urban China. It also offers an overall review of the current government measures on the housing market and affordable housing policies in China. By introducing a dynamic affordability approach and residual income approach, the book allows us to capture the size of the affordability gap more accurately, to better identify policy targets, and to assess the effectiveness of current public policy. The unique database on urban household surveys and regional information on affordable housing projects serve to strengthen the analysis. The book offers theoretical and empirical insights for in-depth affordability studies and helps readers to understand the social impacts of market reforms and the role of government on the Chinese housing market.

Emerging Market Real Estate Investment

Emerging Market Real Estate Investment
Author: David J. Lynn
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2010-09-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470912588

Emerging markets in real estate investing have been an increasing focus for institutional real estate investors worldwide. Part of the Fabozzi series, this book is an insightful overview of international real estate focusing on three of the BRICs: China, India, and Brazil. The authors provide a framework for thinking about these dynamic markets characterized by youthful populations, extraordinary demand, capital inefficiency, and aspiration. Also discussed are the sociopolitical issues, policy, and entry/exit strategies. Notably, the book makes a sanguine assessment of the risks and opportunities of alternative strategies in each country.

The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China

The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China
Author: Ding Ding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2018-12-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484385373

In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China’s residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were the key driver of the rising residential investment to GDP ratio in China. We project that residential investment would moderate from the current level of 9 percent of GDP to around 6 percent by 2024, and its contribution to real GDP growth would decline gradually from currently about half percent of GDP to slightly negative over this period, barring policy intervention. The decline in the growth contribution of residential investment reflects the projected somewhat slower pace of rebalancing going forward and the envisaged increases in labor costs due to demographic changes.

High Speed Rail and China’s New Economic Geography

High Speed Rail and China’s New Economic Geography
Author: Zhenhua Chen
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 377
Release: 2019
Genre: China
ISBN: 1785366041

Presenting an analytical approach to assessing the socioeconomic impact of high speed rail in China, and using a multilevel spatial analysis approach at both the national and the regional level, this book emphasizes capturing the spatial spillover effects of rail infrastructure development on China’s economic geography in terms of land use, housing market, tourism, regional disparity, modal competition, the economy and environment.

The New Geography

The New Geography
Author: Joel Kotkin
Publisher: Random House
Total Pages: 195
Release: 2002-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1588361403

In the blink of an eye, vast economic forces have created new types of communities and reinvented old ones. In The New Geography, acclaimed forecaster Joel Kotkin decodes the changes, and provides the first clear road map for where Americans will live and work in the decades to come, and why. He examines the new role of cities in America and takes us into the new American neighborhood. The New Geography is a brilliant and indispensable guidebook to a fundamentally new landscape.