Applied Risk Analysis
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| Author | : Robb Eric S. Moss |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 183 |
| Release | : 2019-07-31 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 3030226808 |
This updated edition retains its introduction to applied fundamental statistics, probability, reliability, and decision theory as these pertain to problems in Civil Engineering. The new edition adds an expanded treatment of systems reliability, Bayesian methods, and spatial variabililty, along with additional example problems throughout. The book provides readers with the tools needed to determine the probability of failure, and when multiplied by the consequences of failure, illustrates how to assess the risk of civil engineering problems. Presenting methods for quantifying uncertainty that exists in engineering analysis and design, with an emphasis on fostering more accurate analysis and design, the text is ideal for students and practitioners of a range of civil engineering disciplines. Expands on the class-tested pedagogy from the first edition with more material and more examples; Broadens understanding with simulations coded both in Matlab and in R; Features new chapters on spatial variability and Bayesian methods; Emphasizes techniques for estimating the influence of uncertainty on the probability of failure
| Author | : Johnathan Mun |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Risk assessment |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Jean-Paul Chavas |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 257 |
| Release | : 2004-07-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0080516335 |
The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. - Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis - Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty - Website presents application exercises in Excel
| Author | : Greg Allen |
| Publisher | : Butterworth-Heinemann |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2015-11-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780128022245 |
Threat Assessment and Risk Analysis: An Applied Approach details the entire risk analysis process in accessible language, providing the tools and insight needed to effectively analyze risk and secure facilities in a broad range of industries and organizations. The book explores physical vulnerabilities in such systems as transportation, distribution, and communications, and demonstrates how to measure the key risks and their consequences, providing cost-effective and achievable methods for evaluating the appropriate security risk mitigation countermeasures. Users will find a book that outlines the processes for identifying and assessing the most essential threats and risks an organization faces, along with information on how to address only those that justify security expenditures. Balancing the proper security measures versus the actual risks an organization faces is essential when it comes to protecting physical assets. However, determining which security controls are appropriate is often a subjective and complex matter. The book explores this process in an objective and achievable manner, and is a valuable resource for security and risk management executives, directors, and students.
| Author | : Daniel M. Byrd |
| Publisher | : Government Institutes |
| Total Pages | : 463 |
| Release | : 2000-08-01 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1591919630 |
Written for safety and loss-control, environmental, and quality managers, this is the first comprehensive, integrated guide to developing a complete environmental risk analysis for regulated substances and processes. Unlike other books, Introduction to Risk Analysis looks at risk from a regulatory perspective, allowing both professionals in regulatory agencies concerned with risk_including OSHA, EPA, USDA, DOT, FDA, and state environmental agencies_and professionals in any agency-regulated industry to understand and implement the methods required for proper risk assessment. The authors examine risk and the structure of analysis. Emphasizing the predictive nature of risk, they discuss the quantitative nature of risk and explore quantitative-analysis topics, including data graphing, logarithmic thinking, risk estimating, and curve fitting. Chapters include discussions on functions, models, and uncertainties; the regulatory process; risk assessment; exposure; dosimetry; epidemiology; toxicology; risk characterization; comparative risk assessment; ecological risk assessment; risk management; and risk communication. Six in-depth case studies, an annotated bibliography, and more than 50 figures are also included.
| Author | : Terje Aven |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 316 |
| Release | : 2019-06-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0429642725 |
This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.
| Author | : Clifford Rossi |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 573 |
| Release | : 2014-10-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1118953045 |
Balanced, practical risk management for post – financial crisis institutions A Risk Professional's Survival Guide fills a critical gap left by existing risk management texts. Instead of focusing only on quantitative risk analysis or only on institutional risk management, this book takes a comprehensive approach. The disasters of the recent financial crisis taught us that managing risk is both an art and a science, and it is critical for practitioners to understand how individual risks are integrated at the enterprise level. This book is the only resource of its kind to introduce all of the key risk management concepts in a cohesive case study spanning each chapter. A hypothetical bank drawn from elements of several real world institutions serves as a backdrop for topics from credit risk and operational risk to understanding big-picture risk exposure. You will be able to see exactly how each rigorous concept is applied in actual risk management contexts. This book includes: Supplemental Excel-based Visual Basic (VBA) modules, so you can interact directly with risk models Clear explanations of the importance of risk management in preventing financial disasters Real world examples and lessons learned from past crises Risk policies, infrastructure, and activities that balance limited quantitative models This book provides the element of hands-on application necessary to put enterprise risk management into effective practice. The very best risk managers rely on a balanced approach that leverages every aspect of financial operations for an integrative risk management strategy. With this book, you can identify and control risk at an expert level.
| Author | : Keith J Beven |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 685 |
| Release | : 2014-01-13 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1783263121 |
This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.
| Author | : Louis Anthony Cox Jr. |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 596 |
| Release | : 2018-06-19 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319782428 |
Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.
| Author | : Louis Anthony Cox Jr. |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 363 |
| Release | : 2006-03-17 |
| Genre | : Medical |
| ISBN | : 0387261184 |
This book grew out of an effort to salvage a potentially useful idea for greatly simplifying traditional quantitative risk assessments of the human health consequences of using antibiotics in food animals. In 2001, the United States FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) (FDA-CVM, 2001) published a risk assessment model for potential adverse human health consequences of using a certain class of antibiotics, fluoroquinolones, to treat flocks of chickens with fatal respiratory disease caused by infectious bacteria. CVM’s concern was that fluoroquinolones are also used in human medicine, raising the possibility that fluoroquinolone-resistant strains of bacteria selected by use of fluoroquinolones in chickens might infect humans and then prove resistant to treatment with human medicines in the same class of antibiotics, such as ciprofloxacin. As a foundation for its risk assessment model, CVM proposed a dramatically simple approach that skipped many of the steps in traditional risk assessment. The basic idea was to assume that human health risks were directly proportional to some suitably defined exposure metric. In symbols: Risk = K × Exposure, where “Exposure” would be defined in terms of a metric such as total production of chicken contaminated with fluoroquinolone-resistant bacteria that might cause human illnesses, and “Risk” would describe the expected number of cases per year of human illness due to fluoroquinolone-resistant bacterial infections caused by chicken and treated with fluoroquinolones.
