Anticipating Correlations

Anticipating Correlations
Author: Robert Engle
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2009-01-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400830192

Financial markets respond to information virtually instantaneously. Each new piece of information influences the prices of assets and their correlations with each other, and as the system rapidly changes, so too do correlation forecasts. This fast-evolving environment presents econometricians with the challenge of forecasting dynamic correlations, which are essential inputs to risk measurement, portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and many other critical financial activities. In Anticipating Correlations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Engle introduces an important new method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). Engle demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence. He compares DCC with other correlation estimators such as historical correlation, exponential smoothing, and multivariate GARCH, and he presents a range of important applications of DCC. Engle presents the asymmetric model and illustrates it using a multicountry equity and bond return model. He introduces the new FACTOR DCC model that blends factor models with the DCC to produce a model with the best features of both, and illustrates it using an array of U.S. large-cap equities. Engle shows how overinvestment in collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, lies at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis--and how the correlation models in this book could have foreseen the risks. A technical chapter of econometric results also is included. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Anticipating Correlations puts powerful new forecasting tools into the hands of researchers, financial analysts, risk managers, derivative quants, and graduate students.

Elements of Financial Risk Management

Elements of Financial Risk Management
Author: Peter Christoffersen
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 346
Release: 2011-11-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0123744482

The Second Edition of this best-selling book expands its advanced approach to financial risk models by covering market, credit, and integrated risk. With new data that cover the recent financial crisis, it combines Excel-based empirical exercises at the end of each chapter with online exercises so readers can use their own data. Its unified GARCH modeling approach, empirically sophisticated and relevant yet easy to implement, sets this book apart from others. Five new chapters and updated end-of-chapter questions and exercises, as well as Excel-solutions manual, support its step-by-step approach to choosing tools and solving problems. Examines market risk, credit risk, and operational risk Provides exceptional coverage of GARCH models Features online Excel-based empirical exercises

Dependence Modeling with Copulas

Dependence Modeling with Copulas
Author: Harry Joe
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 479
Release: 2014-06-26
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1466583231

Dependence Modeling with Copulas covers the substantial advances that have taken place in the field during the last 15 years, including vine copula modeling of high-dimensional data. Vine copula models are constructed from a sequence of bivariate copulas. The book develops generalizations of vine copula models, including common and structured facto

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 223
Release: 2013-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691146802

Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Dynamic Copula Methods in Finance

Dynamic Copula Methods in Finance
Author: Umberto Cherubini
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 287
Release: 2011-11-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470683074

The latest tools and techniques for pricing and risk management This book introduces readers to the use of copula functions to represent the dynamics of financial assets and risk factors, integrated temporal and cross-section applications. The first part of the book will briefly introduce the standard the theory of copula functions, before examining the link between copulas and Markov processes. It will then introduce new techniques to design Markov processes that are suited to represent the dynamics of market risk factors and their co-movement, providing techniques to both estimate and simulate such dynamics. The second part of the book will show readers how to apply these methods to the evaluation of pricing of multivariate derivative contracts in the equity and credit markets. It will then move on to explore the applications of joint temporal and cross-section aggregation to the problem of risk integration.

Economic Thinkers

Economic Thinkers
Author: David A. Dieterle
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Total Pages: 859
Release: 2013-08-08
Genre: Biography & Autobiography
ISBN:

Who are the individuals whose novel ideas, writings, and philosophies have influenced economics throughout history—and in doing so, have helped change the world? This encyclopedia provides a readable study of economics by examining the great economists themselves. This book presents biographies of 200 economic thinkers throughout history, supplying a one-stop reference about the men and women whose ideas, writings, and philosophies created the foundation of our current understanding of economics. Depicting their subjects within the contexts of history, development economics, and econometrics, these biographies provide an insightful overview of the world of economics through the economists of significance and the many subdisciplines, topics, eras, and philosophies they represent. Economic Thinkers: A Biographical Encyclopedia begins by describing economic thinkers in ancient Greece and Rome, moves through history to cover economists in the 15th through 19th centuries, and addresses economic theory in the 20th century and the modern era. Written to be easily accessible and highly readable, the work will appeal to students, scholars, general readers, and anyone interested in learning about the historical and philosophical foundation of economics.

Anticipating China

Anticipating China
Author: David L. Hall
Publisher: State University of New York Press
Total Pages: 362
Release: 1995-08-17
Genre: History
ISBN: 1438405510

By providing parallel accounts of the contrasting developments of classical Chinese and Western traditions, Anticipating China offers a means of avoiding the implicit cultural biases which so often distort Western understanding of Chinese intellectual culture. The book shows that failure to assess the significant cultural differences between China and the West has seriously affected our understanding of both classical and contemporary China, and makes the translation of attitudes, concepts, and issues extremely problematic.

Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems
Author: Ms.Chikako Oka
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2003-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451843666

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.

Anticipating Risks and Organising Risk Regulation

Anticipating Risks and Organising Risk Regulation
Author: Bridget M. Hutter
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages:
Release: 2010-08-05
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 113949015X

Anticipating risks has become an obsession of the early twenty-first century. Private and public sector organisations increasingly devote resources to risk prevention and contingency planning to manage risk events should they occur. This 2010 book shows how we can organise our social, organisational and regulatory policy systems to cope better with the array of local and transnational risks we regularly encounter. Contributors from a range of disciplines - including finance, history, law, management, political science, social psychology, sociology and disaster studies - consider threats, vulnerabilities and insecurities alongside social and organisational sources of resilience and security. These issues are introduced and discussed through a fascinating and diverse set of topics, including myxomatosis, the 2012 Olympic Games, gene therapy and the financial crisis. This is an important book for academics and policy makers who wish to understand the dilemmas generated in the anticipation and management of risks.