Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications

Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications
Author: Wai-Ki Ching
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 212
Release: 2006-06-05
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 038729337X

Markov chains are a particularly powerful and widely used tool for analyzing a variety of stochastic (probabilistic) systems over time. This monograph will present a series of Markov models, starting from the basic models and then building up to higher-order models. Included in the higher-order discussions are multivariate models, higher-order multivariate models, and higher-order hidden models. In each case, the focus is on the important kinds of applications that can be made with the class of models being considered in the current chapter. Special attention is given to numerical algorithms that can efficiently solve the models. Therefore, Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications outlines recent developments of Markov chain models for modeling queueing sequences, Internet, re-manufacturing systems, reverse logistics, inventory systems, bio-informatics, DNA sequences, genetic networks, data mining, and many other practical systems.

Markov Chains

Markov Chains
Author: Paul A. Gagniuc
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 252
Release: 2017-07-31
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1119387558

A fascinating and instructive guide to Markov chains for experienced users and newcomers alike This unique guide to Markov chains approaches the subject along the four convergent lines of mathematics, implementation, simulation, and experimentation. It introduces readers to the art of stochastic modeling, shows how to design computer implementations, and provides extensive worked examples with case studies. Markov Chains: From Theory to Implementation and Experimentation begins with a general introduction to the history of probability theory in which the author uses quantifiable examples to illustrate how probability theory arrived at the concept of discrete-time and the Markov model from experiments involving independent variables. An introduction to simple stochastic matrices and transition probabilities is followed by a simulation of a two-state Markov chain. The notion of steady state is explored in connection with the long-run distribution behavior of the Markov chain. Predictions based on Markov chains with more than two states are examined, followed by a discussion of the notion of absorbing Markov chains. Also covered in detail are topics relating to the average time spent in a state, various chain configurations, and n-state Markov chain simulations used for verifying experiments involving various diagram configurations. • Fascinating historical notes shed light on the key ideas that led to the development of the Markov model and its variants • Various configurations of Markov Chains and their limitations are explored at length • Numerous examples—from basic to complex—are presented in a comparative manner using a variety of color graphics • All algorithms presented can be analyzed in either Visual Basic, Java Script, or PHP • Designed to be useful to professional statisticians as well as readers without extensive knowledge of probability theory Covering both the theory underlying the Markov model and an array of Markov chain implementations, within a common conceptual framework, Markov Chains: From Theory to Implementation and Experimentation is a stimulating introduction to and a valuable reference for those wishing to deepen their understanding of this extremely valuable statistical tool. Paul A. Gagniuc, PhD, is Associate Professor at Polytechnic University of Bucharest, Romania. He obtained his MS and his PhD in genetics at the University of Bucharest. Dr. Gagniuc’s work has been published in numerous high profile scientific journals, ranging from the Public Library of Science to BioMed Central and Nature journals. He is the recipient of several awards for exceptional scientific results and a highly active figure in the review process for different scientific areas.

Secondary Analysis of Electronic Health Records

Secondary Analysis of Electronic Health Records
Author: MIT Critical Data
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 435
Release: 2016-09-09
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 3319437429

This book trains the next generation of scientists representing different disciplines to leverage the data generated during routine patient care. It formulates a more complete lexicon of evidence-based recommendations and support shared, ethical decision making by doctors with their patients. Diagnostic and therapeutic technologies continue to evolve rapidly, and both individual practitioners and clinical teams face increasingly complex ethical decisions. Unfortunately, the current state of medical knowledge does not provide the guidance to make the majority of clinical decisions on the basis of evidence. The present research infrastructure is inefficient and frequently produces unreliable results that cannot be replicated. Even randomized controlled trials (RCTs), the traditional gold standards of the research reliability hierarchy, are not without limitations. They can be costly, labor intensive, and slow, and can return results that are seldom generalizable to every patient population. Furthermore, many pertinent but unresolved clinical and medical systems issues do not seem to have attracted the interest of the research enterprise, which has come to focus instead on cellular and molecular investigations and single-agent (e.g., a drug or device) effects. For clinicians, the end result is a bit of a “data desert” when it comes to making decisions. The new research infrastructure proposed in this book will help the medical profession to make ethically sound and well informed decisions for their patients.

Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology

Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology
Author: Hal Caswell
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 308
Release: 2019-04-02
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 3030105342

This open access book shows how to use sensitivity analysis in demography. It presents new methods for individuals, cohorts, and populations, with applications to humans, other animals, and plants. The analyses are based on matrix formulations of age-classified, stage-classified, and multistate population models. Methods are presented for linear and nonlinear, deterministic and stochastic, and time-invariant and time-varying cases. Readers will discover results on the sensitivity of statistics of longevity, life disparity, occupancy times, the net reproductive rate, and statistics of Markov chain models in demography. They will also see applications of sensitivity analysis to population growth rates, stable population structures, reproductive value, equilibria under immigration and nonlinearity, and population cycles. Individual stochasticity is a theme throughout, with a focus that goes beyond expected values to include variances in demographic outcomes. The calculations are easily and accurately implemented in matrix-oriented programming languages such as Matlab or R. Sensitivity analysis will help readers create models to predict the effect of future changes, to evaluate policy effects, and to identify possible evolutionary responses to the environment. Complete with many examples of the application, the book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in human demography and population biology. The material will also appeal to those in mathematical biology and applied mathematics.

Introduction to Probability

Introduction to Probability
Author: David F. Anderson
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 447
Release: 2017-11-02
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 110824498X

This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.

Hidden Markov Models

Hidden Markov Models
Author: Robert J Elliott
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 374
Release: 2008-09-27
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0387848541

As more applications are found, interest in Hidden Markov Models continues to grow. Following comments and feedback from colleagues, students and other working with Hidden Markov Models the corrected 3rd printing of this volume contains clarifications, improvements and some new material, including results on smoothing for linear Gaussian dynamics. In Chapter 2 the derivation of the basic filters related to the Markov chain are each presented explicitly, rather than as special cases of one general filter. Furthermore, equations for smoothed estimates are given. The dynamics for the Kalman filter are derived as special cases of the authors’ general results and new expressions for a Kalman smoother are given. The Chapters on the control of Hidden Markov Chains are expanded and clarified. The revised Chapter 4 includes state estimation for discrete time Markov processes and Chapter 12 has a new section on robust control.

Introduction to the Numerical Solution of Markov Chains

Introduction to the Numerical Solution of Markov Chains
Author: William J. Stewart
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 561
Release: 1994-12-04
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0691036993

Markov Chains -- Direct Methods -- Iterative Methods -- Projection Methods -- Block Hessenberg Matrices -- Decompositional Methods -- LI-Cyclic Markov -- Chains -- Transient Solutions -- Stochastic Automata Networks -- Software.

Hidden Markov Models for Time Series

Hidden Markov Models for Time Series
Author: Walter Zucchini
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 370
Release: 2017-12-19
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1482253844

Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data

Basics of Applied Stochastic Processes

Basics of Applied Stochastic Processes
Author: Richard Serfozo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 452
Release: 2009-01-24
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3540893326

Stochastic processes are mathematical models of random phenomena that evolve according to prescribed dynamics. Processes commonly used in applications are Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, renewal and regenerative processes, Poisson processes, and Brownian motion. This volume gives an in-depth description of the structure and basic properties of these stochastic processes. A main focus is on equilibrium distributions, strong laws of large numbers, and ordinary and functional central limit theorems for cost and performance parameters. Although these results differ for various processes, they have a common trait of being limit theorems for processes with regenerative increments. Extensive examples and exercises show how to formulate stochastic models of systems as functions of a system’s data and dynamics, and how to represent and analyze cost and performance measures. Topics include stochastic networks, spatial and space-time Poisson processes, queueing, reversible processes, simulation, Brownian approximations, and varied Markovian models. The technical level of the volume is between that of introductory texts that focus on highlights of applied stochastic processes, and advanced texts that focus on theoretical aspects of processes.

Long-run behavior of interval neutrosophic Markov chain

Long-run behavior of interval neutrosophic Markov chain
Author: D. Nagarajan
Publisher: Infinite Study
Total Pages: 18
Release:
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN:

As the world is a competitive one, prediction of the future trend is an important task for the survival of any organization. There are many statistical and technical methods available for doing this task and this can be done in an optimized way using Markov chain with time series where random changes are allowed. Markov chains are an essential technique in random process underlying the Markov property [1]. Longrun behavior is the behavior of the system where each and every input can be different and the free entry is unconditional. In addition, the cost of this behavior is the minimum of short run behavior.