Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes

Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes
Author: David M. Frankel
Publisher:
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

A theory is developed that explains how the stock market can crash in the absence of news about fundamentals, and why crashes are more common than frenzies. A crash occurs via the interaction of rational and naive investors. Naive traders believe in a simple (but reasonable) statistical model of stock prices: that prices follow a random walk with serially correlated volatility. They predict future volatility adaptively, as a weighted average of past squared price changes. From time to time, the rational traders sharply lower their demand for stocks, causing prices to fall below fundamentals. This raises naive investors' assessment of future volatility. Since naive traders are risk averse, their demand for stocks falls. This lowers the market's risk-bearing ability after the crash. Anticipating this, a rational trader has no incentive to bid up prices on the day of the crash. Unlike other explanations of market crashes, this mechanism is fundamentally asymmetric: the price of stocks cannot exceed fundamentals, so frenzies or bubbles cannot occur.

Why Stock Markets Crash

Why Stock Markets Crash
Author: Didier Sornette
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 449
Release: 2017-03-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400885094

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

Return Predictability and Stock Market Crashes in a Simple Rational Expectations Model

Return Predictability and Stock Market Crashes in a Simple Rational Expectations Model
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper presents a simple rational expectations model of intertemporal asset pricing. It shows that heterogeneous risk aversion of investors is likely to generate declining aggregate relative risk aversion. This leads to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility. Stock market crashes may be observed if relative risk aversion differs strongly across investors. Then aggregate relative risk aversion may sharply increase given a small impairment in fundamentals so that asset prices may strongly decline. Changes in aggregate relative risk aversion may also lead to resistance and support levels as used in technical analysis. For numerical illustration we propose an analytical asset price formula. -- Aggregate relative risk aversion ; Equilibrium asset price processes ; Excess Volatility ; Return predictability ; Stock market crashes

Stock-market Psychology

Stock-market Psychology
Author: Karl Erik W‹rneryd
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 360
Release: 2001-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781782543039

'Stock-Market Psychology gives an excellent overview of the state-of-the-art literature on this subject in the fields of economics, psychology and finance. . . a comprehensive overview of the behavior of investors in the stock market. As such, this book is valuable for the classroom. . . Stock-Market Psychology provides researchers with numerous ideas for future research and readers with useful and fun tips without taking away our hopes of ever becoming rich from investing in stocks. What more is there to ask from a book?' - Joost M.E. Pennings, Journal of Economic Psychology 'George Goodman (Adam Smith) once wrote, "you can find out who you are by investing in the stock market, but it will be an expensive lesson". It is far smarter and cheaper to read Wärneryd's book instead. At a time when global stock markets are driven by emotions and passions, and are highly volatile, Chapter Six will tell you why, far better than a hundred analysts' reports.' - Shlomo Maital, TIM-Technion Institute of Management and the Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology, Israel The rationale behind how people value and trade stocks is of unparalleled interest to governments, companies and other participants in stock markets. The book focuses on the way in which investors process information and form expectations about future gains. It argues that humans fall short of the perfect information processing required by theory, and that their expectations are based on more than just future company earnings.

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition
Author: Harold L. Vogel
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 508
Release: 2018-08-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319715283

Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets

Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets
Author: Stefan Palan
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 179
Release: 2009-10-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642021476

This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.

The Corona Crash

The Corona Crash
Author: Grace Blakeley
Publisher: Verso Books
Total Pages: 113
Release: 2020-10-27
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1839762055

Free market, competitive capitalism is dead. The separation between politics and economics can no longer be sustained. In The Corona Crash, leading economics commentator Grace Blakeley theorises about the epoch-making changes that the coronavirus brings in its wake. We are living through a unique moment in history. The pandemic has caused the deepest global recession since the Second World War. Meanwhile the human cost is reflected in a still-rising death toll, as many states find themselves unable—and some unwilling—to grapple with the effects of the virus. Whatever happens, we can never go back to business as usual. This crisis will tip us into a new era of monopoly capitalism, argues Blakeley, as the corporate economy collapses into the arms of the state, and the tech giants grow to unprecedented proportions. We need a radical response. The recovery could see the transformation of our political, economic, and social systems based on the principles of the Green New Deal. If not, the alternatives, as Blakeley warns, may be even worse than we feared.

Adaptive Markets

Adaptive Markets
Author: Andrew W. Lo
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 503
Release: 2019-05-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 069119680X

A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.

Market Volatility

Market Volatility
Author: Robert J. Shiller
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 486
Release: 1992-01-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262691512

Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.