Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 567
Release: 2016-04-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400880890
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A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Financial Risk Forecasting

Financial Risk Forecasting
Author: Jon Danielsson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 307
Release: 2011-04-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1119977118
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Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report
Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
Total Pages: 692
Release: 2011-05-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1616405414
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The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Elements of Forecasting

Elements of Forecasting
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: South-Western Pub
Total Pages: 366
Release: 2007
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780324359046
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ELEMENTARY FORECASTING focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability. The author illustrates all methods with detailed real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations.

The Economics of Electricity Markets

The Economics of Electricity Markets
Author: Darryl R. Biggar
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 493
Release: 2014-07-10
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1118775724
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Bridges the knowledge gap between engineering and economics in a complex and evolving deregulated electricity industry, enabling readers to understand, operate, plan and design a modern power system With an accessible and progressive style written in straight-forward language, this book covers everything an engineer or economist needs to know to understand, operate within, plan and design an effective liberalized electricity industry, thus serving as both a useful teaching text and a valuable reference. The book focuses on principles and theory which are independent of any one market design. It outlines where the theory is not implemented in practice, perhaps due to other over-riding concerns. The book covers the basic modelling of electricity markets, including the impact of uncertainty (an integral part of generation investment decisions and transmission cost-benefit analysis). It draws out the parallels to the Nordpool market (an important point of reference for Europe). Written from the perspective of the policy-maker, the first part provides the introductory background knowledge required. This includes an understanding of basic economics concepts such as supply and demand, monopoly, market power and marginal cost. The second part of the book asks how a set of generation, load, and transmission resources should be efficiently operated, and the third part focuses on the generation investment decision. Part 4 addresses the question of the management of risk and Part 5 discusses the question of market power. Any power system must be operated at all times in a manner which can accommodate the next potential contingency. This demands responses by generators and loads on a very short timeframe. Part 6 of the book addresses the question of dispatch in the very short run, introducing the distinction between preventive and corrective actions and why preventive actions are sometimes required. The seventh part deals with pricing issues that arise under a regionally-priced market, such as the Australian NEM. This section introduces the notion of regions and interconnectors and how to formulate constraints for the correct pricing outcomes (the issue of "constraint orientation"). Part 8 addresses the fundamental and difficult issue of efficient transmission investment, and finally Part 9 covers issues that arise in the retail market. Bridges the gap between engineering and economics in electricity, covering both the economics and engineering knowledge needed to accurately understand, plan and develop the electricity market Comprehensive coverage of all the key topics in the economics of electricity markets Covers the latest research and policy issues as well as description of the fundamental concepts and principles that can be applied across all markets globally Numerous worked examples and end-of-chapter problems Companion website holding solutions to problems set out in the book, also the relevant simulation (GAMS) codes

The Handbook of Financial Communication and Investor Relations

The Handbook of Financial Communication and Investor Relations
Author: Alexander V. Laskin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 540
Release: 2017-11-29
Genre: Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN: 1119240786
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The first book to offer a global look at the state-of-the-art thinking and practice in investor relations and financial communication Featuring contributions from leading scholars and practitioners in financial communication and related fields—including public relations, corporate communications, finance, and accounting— this volume in the critically acclaimed “Handbooks in Communication and Media” seriesprovides readers with a comprehensive, up-to-date picture of investor relations and financial communications as they are practiced in North America and around the world. The Handbook of Financial Communication and Investor Relations provides an overview of the past, present, and future of investor relations and financial communications as a profession. It identifies the central issues of contemporary investor relations and financial communications practice, including financial information versus non-financial information, intangibles, risk, value, and growth. Authors address key topics of concern to contemporary practitioners, such as socially responsible investing, corporate governance, shareholder activism, ethics, and professionalism. In addition, the book arms readers with metrics and proven techniques for reliably measuring and evaluating the effectiveness of investor relations and financial communications. Bringing together the most up-to-date research on investor relations and financial communication and the insights and expertise of an all-star team of practitioners, The Handbook of Financial Communication and Investor Relations: Explores how the profession is practiced in various regions of the globe, including North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, India, Australia, and other areas Provides a unique look at financial communication as it is practiced beyond the corporate world, including in families, the medical profession, government, and the not-for-profit sector Addresses “big-picture” strategies as well as specific tactics for financial communication during crises, the use of social media, dealing with shareholder activism, integrated reporting and CSR, and more This book makes an ideal reference resource for undergrads and graduate students, scholars, and practitioners studying or researching investor relations and financial communication across schools of communication, journalism, business, and management. It also offers professionals an up-to-date, uniquely holistic look at best practices in financial communication investor relations worldwide.

Economic Forecasting and Policy

Economic Forecasting and Policy
Author: N. Carnot
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 516
Release: 2011-07-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230306446
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Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.