A Model For Short Term Electric Load Forecasting
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| Author | : Antonio Gabaldón |
| Publisher | : MDPI |
| Total Pages | : 324 |
| Release | : 2021-02-26 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 303943442X |
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.
| Author | : S.A. Soliman |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 441 |
| Release | : 2010-05-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0123815444 |
Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models
| Author | : Maria Jacob |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 108 |
| Release | : 2019-09-25 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 303028669X |
The overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand forecasting algorithms from statistics, machine learning and mathematics is presented, followed by extreme value theory techniques with examples. In order to achieve carbon targets, good forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance, shifting demand or charging battery depends on correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks, methods from extreme value theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While applied on individual loads, the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to substations, or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also used across other disciplines, for example for predicting heavy rainfalls, wind speed, solar radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students, academics, engineers and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction, energy data analytics, battery control, demand side response and data science in general.
| Author | : Filippo Maria Bianchi |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 74 |
| Release | : 2017-11-09 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 3319703382 |
The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of an effective forecasting system. Significant research has thus been devoted to the design and development of methodologies for short term load forecasting over the past decades. A class of mathematical models, called Recurrent Neural Networks, are nowadays gaining renewed interest among researchers and they are replacing many practical implementations of the forecasting systems, previously based on static methods. Despite the undeniable expressive power of these architectures, their recurrent nature complicates their understanding and poses challenges in the training procedures. Recently, new important families of recurrent architectures have emerged and their applicability in the context of load forecasting has not been investigated completely yet. This work performs a comparative study on the problem of Short-Term Load Forecast, by using different classes of state-of-the-art Recurrent Neural Networks. The authors test the reviewed models first on controlled synthetic tasks and then on different real datasets, covering important practical cases of study. The text also provides a general overview of the most important architectures and defines guidelines for configuring the recurrent networks to predict real-valued time series.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : Automatic test equipment |
| ISBN | : 9781509057108 |
| Author | : Joe H. Chow |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2010-12-06 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 9781441936318 |
Applied Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems: Optimization, Control, and Computational Intelligence consists of chapters based on work presented at a National Science Foundation workshop organized in November 2003. The theme of the workshop was the use of applied mathematics to solve challenging power system problems. The areas included control, optimization, and computational intelligence. In addition to the introductory chapter, this book includes 12 chapters written by renowned experts in their respected fields. Each chapter follows a three-part format: (1) a description of an important power system problem or problems, (2) the current practice and/or particular research approaches, and (3) future research directions. Collectively, the technical areas discussed are voltage and oscillatory stability, power system security margins, hierarchical and decentralized control, stability monitoring, embedded optimization, neural network control with adaptive critic architecture, control tuning using genetic algorithms, and load forecasting and component prediction. This volume is intended for power systems researchers and professionals charged with solving electric and power system problems.
| Author | : Neeraj Priyadarshi |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 484 |
| Release | : 2022-01-19 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 1119786274 |
INTELLIGENT RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS This collection of papers on artificial intelligence and other methods for improving renewable energy systems, written by industry experts, is a reflection of the state of the art, a must-have for engineers, maintenance personnel, students, and anyone else wanting to stay abreast with current energy systems concepts and technology. Renewable energy is one of the most important subjects being studied, researched, and advanced in today’s world. From a macro level, like the stabilization of the entire world’s economy, to the micro level, like how you are going to heat or cool your home tonight, energy, specifically renewable energy, is on the forefront of the discussion. This book illustrates modelling, simulation, design and control of renewable energy systems employed with recent artificial intelligence (AI) and optimization techniques for performance enhancement. Current renewable energy sources have less power conversion efficiency because of its intermittent and fluctuating behavior. Therefore, in this regard, the recent AI and optimization techniques are able to deal with data ambiguity, noise, imprecision, and nonlinear behavior of renewable energy sources more efficiently compared to classical soft computing techniques. This book provides an extensive analysis of recent state of the art AI and optimization techniques applied to green energy systems. Subsequently, researchers, industry persons, undergraduate and graduate students involved in green energy will greatly benefit from this comprehensive volume, a must-have for any library. Audience Engineers, scientists, managers, researchers, students, and other professionals working in the field of renewable energy.
| Author | : Anuj Srivastava |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 454 |
| Release | : 2016-10-03 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1493940201 |
This textbook for courses on function data analysis and shape data analysis describes how to define, compare, and mathematically represent shapes, with a focus on statistical modeling and inference. It is aimed at graduate students in analysis in statistics, engineering, applied mathematics, neuroscience, biology, bioinformatics, and other related areas. The interdisciplinary nature of the broad range of ideas covered—from introductory theory to algorithmic implementations and some statistical case studies—is meant to familiarize graduate students with an array of tools that are relevant in developing computational solutions for shape and related analyses. These tools, gleaned from geometry, algebra, statistics, and computational science, are traditionally scattered across different courses, departments, and disciplines; Functional and Shape Data Analysis offers a unified, comprehensive solution by integrating the registration problem into shape analysis, better preparing graduate students for handling future scientific challenges. Recently, a data-driven and application-oriented focus on shape analysis has been trending. This text offers a self-contained treatment of this new generation of methods in shape analysis of curves. Its main focus is shape analysis of functions and curves—in one, two, and higher dimensions—both closed and open. It develops elegant Riemannian frameworks that provide both quantification of shape differences and registration of curves at the same time. Additionally, these methods are used for statistically summarizing given curve data, performing dimension reduction, and modeling observed variability. It is recommended that the reader have a background in calculus, linear algebra, numerical analysis, and computation.
| Author | : Derek W. Bunn |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 256 |
| Release | : 1985 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Takes a practical look at how short-term forecasting has actually been undertaken and is being developed in public utility organizations.
| Author | : Vojislav Kecman |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 556 |
| Release | : 2001 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 9780262112550 |
This textbook provides a thorough introduction to the field of learning from experimental data and soft computing. Support vector machines (SVM) and neural networks (NN) are the mathematical structures, or models, that underlie learning, while fuzzy logic systems (FLS) enable us to embed structured human knowledge into workable algorithms. The book assumes that it is not only useful, but necessary, to treat SVM, NN, and FLS as parts of a connected whole. Throughout, the theory and algorithms are illustrated by practical examples, as well as by problem sets and simulated experiments. This approach enables the reader to develop SVM, NN, and FLS in addition to understanding them. The book also presents three case studies: on NN-based control, financial time series analysis, and computer graphics. A solutions manual and all of the MATLAB programs needed for the simulated experiments are available.
