Yield Curve Dynamics and Spillovers in Central and Eastern European Countries

Yield Curve Dynamics and Spillovers in Central and Eastern European Countries
Author: Ms.Anita Tuladhar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2010-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451963327

This paper applies the models used to study yield curve dynamics and spillovers in the U.S. and other countries to Central and Eastern European countries (CEE countries). Using the Diebold, Rudebusch, and Aruoba (2006) dynamic version of the Nelson-Siegel representation of the yield curve, the paper finds that the two-way relationship between macroeconomic and financial variables in the CEE countries is similar to the one in mature economies. However, inflation shocks have very little persistence in the CEE countries, owing to the strong convergence trends in these countries-which tend to re-anchor expectations faster. Increased convergence in policies and market integration over time are associated with a stronger correlation between the levels of the yield curves, while the curves slopes are more driven by idiosyncratic factors. Shifts in the euro yield curve are transmitted both to interest rates and inflation expectations in the CEE countries-and transmission is stronger after 2004.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco

Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco
Author: Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2016-08-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475526296

We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy

Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2012-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475502303

The paper developes a VAR macrofinance model of the Czech economy. It shows that yield misalignments from the yields implied by the macrofinance model partially determine subsequent yield changes over three to nine months. These yield misalignments tend to persist for a number of months. This persistence of the misalignments was explained by (a) the fact that the macro-economy influences asset markets only at lower frequencies, (b) the liquidity effect particularly during the times of capital inflows to Czech Republic, and (c) the fact that not all misalignments were greater than their historical one standard deviation.

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 223
Release: 2013-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691146802

Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

The Global Welfare Impact of China

The Global Welfare Impact of China
Author: Mr.Julian Di Giovanni
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2012-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475502311

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative productivity growth scenarios: a "balanced" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an "unbalanced" one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson, 2004), the large majority of countries in the sample, including the developed ones, experience an order of magnitude larger welfare gains when China's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors. We demonstrate both analytically and quantitatively that this finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade. As a separate but related exercise we quantify the worldwide welfare gains from China's trade integration.

Understanding Chinese Bond Yields and their Role in Monetary Policy

Understanding Chinese Bond Yields and their Role in Monetary Policy
Author: Mr.Nuno Cassola
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2011-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463904932

China's financial prices are informative enough for the PBC to introduce a monetary policy framework centered around interest rates. While bond yields are not fully efficient?reflecting regulation, liquidity, and segmentation?we find they contain considerable information about the state of the economy as well as evidence of an emerging transmission channel: changes in PBC rates influence the structure of Treasury, financial, and corporate bond yield curves, which are then associated with changes in growth and inflation. Coporate spreads are also a leading indicator of growth and inflation. While further liberalization will strengthen both efficiency and transmission, several necessary elements to move towards indirect monetary policy are already in place.

Negative Interest Rates

Negative Interest Rates
Author: Luís Brandão Marques
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2021-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513570080

This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.

Structural Change and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Structural Change and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Author: Paul J.J. Welfens
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 290
Release: 2005-12-06
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 3540285261

Structural change, economic growth and adequate exchange rate adjustment are key challenges in the context of EU eastern enlargement as are consistent macroeconomic policies. The authors focus on sectoral adjustment across industries in catching-up countries and explain changes in the composition of output – this includes new aspects of the Chenery model. They describe and analyze the spatial pattern of specialization and adjustment in many countries. Theoretical and empirical analysis of foreign direct investment, innovation and structural change shed new light on economic dynamics in Old Europe and New Europe. As regards exchange rate dynamics both traditional aspects (such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect) and new approaches to understanding exchange rate developments are presented. Links between exchange rate changes and innovation are particularly emphasized.

World Economic Outlook, October 2007

World Economic Outlook, October 2007
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 277
Release: 2007-04-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 158906688X

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost 1⁄2 percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 43⁄4 percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern.

Harnessing Quality for Global Competitiveness in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Harnessing Quality for Global Competitiveness in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Author: Jean-Louis Racine
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 360
Release: 2011-05-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0821385097

Standards are everywhere, yet go mostly unnoticed. They define how products, processes, and people interact, assessing these entities’ features and performance and signaling their level of quality and reliability. They can convey important benefits to trade, productivity, and technological progress and play an important role in the health and safety of individual consumers and the environment. Firms’ ability to produce competitive products depends on the availability of adequate quality-support services. A “national quality infrastructure” denotes the chain of public and private services (standardization, metrology, inspection, testing, certification, and accreditation) needed to ascertain that products and services introduced in the marketplace meet defined requirements, whether demanded by authorities or by consumers. In much of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, national quality infrastructure systems are underdeveloped and not harmonized with those of their trading partners. This imbalance increases trade costs, hinders local firms’ competitiveness, and weakens overall export performance. The objective of Harnessing Quality for Global Competitiveness in Eastern Europe and Central Asia is to highlight the need to reform and modernize the institutions in the region toward better quality and standards. The book ties in with much of the work done in the World Bank on the business environment, trade facilitation, economic diversification, and enterprise innovation. The countries in the region can improve this situation, revising mandatory standards, streamlining technical regulations, and harmonizing their national quality infrastructure with those of regional and international trade partners. Most governments will need to invest strategically in their national quality infrastructure, including pooling services with neighboring countries and stimulating local awareness and demand for quality. Specifically for the countries of the former Soviet Union, the restructuring process will need to improve governance, thus eliminating conflicts of interest and providing technically credible services to the economy.