World Seaborne Trade In Real Time A Proof Of Concept For Building Ais Based Nowcasts From Scratch
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| Author | : Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 2020-05-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513544101 |
Maritime data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real time information on trade activity. However, no globally applicable end-to-end solution has been published to transform raw AIS messages into economically meaningful, policy-relevant indicators of international trade. Our paper proposes and tests a set of algorithms to fill this gap. We build indicators of world seaborne trade using raw data from the radio signals that the global vessel fleet emits for navigational safety purposes. We leverage different machine-learning techniques to identify port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. Our methodology achieves a good fit with official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. We also show the usefulness of our approach for sectoral analyses of crude oil trade, and for event studies such as Hurricane Maria and the effect of measures taken to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Going forward, ongoing refinements of our algorithms, additional data on vessel characteristics, and country-specific knowledge should help improve the performance of our general approach for several country cases.
| Author | : Ruxandra-Laura Boşilcă |
| Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
| Total Pages | : 367 |
| Release | : 2022-07-25 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1000593495 |
This handbook offers a critical and substantial analysis of maritime security and documents the most pressing strategic, economic, socio-cultural and legal questions surrounding it. Written by leading international experts, this comprehensive volume presents a wide variety of theoretical positions on maritime security, detailing its achievements and outlining outstanding issues faced by those in the field. The book includes studies which cover the entire spectrum of activity along which maritime security is developing, including, piracy, cyber security, energy security, terrorism, narco-subs and illegal fishing. Demonstrating the transformative character and potential of the topic, the book is divided into two parts. The first part exhibits a range of perspectives and new approaches to maritime security, and the second explores emerging developments in the practice of security at sea, as well as regional studies written by local maritime security experts. Taken together, these contributions provide a compelling account of the evolving maritime security environment, casting fresh light on theoretical and empirical aspects. The book will be of much interest to practitioners and students of maritime security, naval studies, security studies, maritime history, and International Relations in general. Chapter 13 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF at http://www.taylorfrancis.com under a Creative Commons [Attribution-Non Commercial] (CC-BY-NC)] 4.0 license.
| Author | : Brandon Buell |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 61 |
| Release | : 2021-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513582496 |
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
| Author | : Joy Murray |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 461 |
| Release | : 2022-05-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1000523187 |
This book adds a whole new dimension to the editors’ previous work on the social, economic, and environmental effects of global trade. For the first time it brings all three pillars of sustainability together into one coherent multiregional input–output (MRIO) framework. It shows the power of MRIO analysis to illuminate the local and global interdependencies of economic, environmental, and social systems and the benefits to be gained through analysing all three together. Change one thing and everything else changes. With chapters from around 60 researchers across 34 countries, this book illustrates the effect of natural resources and government policy settings 1990–2015 on the balancing act that was—and is—global trade. It provides a holistic systems’ view of how supply chains work, revealing how easily they can become fragmented and out of kilter. And within all the chaos of COVID-19 it shows how MRIO is the one tool that can help rebuild a post-pandemic global economy into a fairer, safer world.
| Author | : Andras Komaromi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 17 |
| Release | : 2022-03-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Rising prices and reports of empty shelves in major economies have drawn attention to the functioning of supply chains that normally operate smoothly in the background. Among the issues, the long delays that port congestion may have caused in delivering goods to consumers and firms have been gathering increasing attention. We shed light on these issues leveraging a unique data set on maritime transport. Two main features emerge. First, at the world level, we find that shipping times jumped upwards as soon as the COVID crisis hit, and after a marked acceleration from end-2020, delays surpassed 1.5 days on average by December 2021 – or roughly a 25 percent increase in global travel times. The estimated additional days in transit for the average shipment in December 2021 can be compared to an ad-valorem tariff of 0.9 to 3.1 percent. The midpoint of this range is approximately equal, in absolute value, to the global applied tariff reduction achieved over the 14-year period from 2003 to 2017. Second, not all congestion appears related to increased demand. Many ports, especially since mid-2021, exhibit longer wait times despite handling less cargo than pre-pandemic. Infrastructure upgrading is therefore likely a necessary, but not sufficient condition for building resilience during a crisis where other factors (such as labor shortages) may also become binding.
| Author | : Omer Faruk Akbal |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 2023-08-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
| Author | : Mr. Serkan Arslanalp |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2021-08-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513593536 |
This paper proposes an easy-to-follow approach to track merchandise trade using vessel data and applies it to Pacific island countries. Pacific islands rely heavily on imports and maritime transport for trade. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters that pose risks to ports and supply chains. Using satellite-based vessel tracking data from the UN Global Platform, we construct daily indicators of port and trade activity for Pacific island countries. The algorithm significantly advances estimation techniques of previous studies, particularly by employing ways to overcome challenges with the estimation of cargo payloads, using detailed information on shipping liner schedules to validate port calls, and applying country-specific information to define port boundaries. The approach can complement and help fill gaps in official data, provide early warning signs of turning points in economic activity, and assist policymakers and international organizations to monitor and provide timely responses to shocks (e.g., COVID-19).
| Author | : Asian Development Bank |
| Publisher | : Asian Development Bank |
| Total Pages | : 258 |
| Release | : 2022-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9292692488 |
Unprecedented challenges from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have emphasized the need for Asia and the Pacific countries to work together to build back resiliently and sustainably. This report reflects on lessons learned from efforts to tackle the pandemic through regional cooperation and integration. It provides insights on how region-wide solidarity can be enhanced with the support of multilateral development banks in areas such as trade and investment, connectivity infrastructure, people’s mobility, regional public goods, and policy cooperation. The report was jointly prepared by the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank, and the World Bank Group.
| Author | : Co?kun Özer, Ahu |
| Publisher | : IGI Global |
| Total Pages | : 291 |
| Release | : 2021-06-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1799883167 |
International trade is vital in today’s world; international trade can be affected by a number of issues such as terrorism, economic crises, and pandemics such as COVID-19. It is crucial to understand the impact these global issues have on international trade and what happens to trade when global issues arise. A comprehensive guide of these issues is needed to provide background and understanding about international trade and its relationship with global issues. Global issues occasionally dominate a continuing theme of the international globalized world: global crises, war, security issues, global pandemics such as COVID-19, and trade wars. Global cooperation is required to solve such problems. Economically intellectual thinking will enable the development of guiding policies in solving these global problems. In this book, the effects of global issues on international trade will be evaluated, and policy recommendations will be made for the solution of the global issues. Impact of Global Issues on International Trade is a critical reference source that uses analytic research to analyze the effects of global economic and financial crises as well as global health crises and their impact on international trade. Pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economic crisis, and trade wars are discussed, and political suggestions are made to mitigate negative impacts. Covering a wide range of topics such as financial fragility and trade fairs, it is ideal for trade specialists, policymakers, government officials, managers, executives, economists, academicians, researchers, students, and industry professionals.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 33 |
| Release | : 2022-07-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Slovak Republic: Selected Issues
