Who is Most Vulnerable to Macroeconomic Shocks?

Who is Most Vulnerable to Macroeconomic Shocks?
Author: Paul Glewwe
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 56
Release: 1995
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This paper attempts to answer the question: Who is most vulnerable to declines in welfare during a macroeconomic shock? After clarifying the difference between poverty and vulnerability, an analytical framework is presented and then applied to household panel data from Peru. Major findings are: (a) households with better educated heads are less vulnerable; (b) female headed households are not more vulnerable to declines than male headed households; (c) households with more children are more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks; and (d) transfer networks that may assist the poor in relatively stable periods do not appear to protect them during a major shock, with the exception of transfers that originate from outside Peru.

Household Vulnerability and Resilience to Economic Shocks

Household Vulnerability and Resilience to Economic Shocks
Author: Simon Feeny
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 170
Release: 2016-07-22
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1317121058

Focusing on the vulnerability and resilience to economic shocks at the household level, this book draws on extensive research activities carried out in two Melanesia countries: the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. In particular, it identifies the household impacts of the recent food, fuel and economic crises. The contributors also examine resilience by identifying how households responded to these recent economic events in order to cope with their impacts. Findings indicate that households are vulnerable to a range of shocks and often struggle to cope with their impacts. Shocks are making it harder for households to meet their basic needs. Households in Melanesia are facing increasing demands for money, in particular for school fees, basic foodstuffs and customary obligations. Concurrently, there are limited domestic opportunities for formal employment. Traditional social support networks are strong and are an important form of resilience. However, there is evidence that they are disintegrating. Of particular focus are the gendered impacts. Women are found to bear a disproportionate share of the burden in adjusting to household shocks. The authors highlight key areas in which public policy and development programmes can reduce household vulnerability and increase their resilience to future economic shocks.

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?
Author: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2018-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484363027

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.

Learning from SARS

Learning from SARS
Author: Institute of Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 376
Release: 2004-04-26
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 0309182158

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in late 2002 and 2003 challenged the global public health community to confront a novel epidemic that spread rapidly from its origins in southern China until it had reached more than 25 other countries within a matter of months. In addition to the number of patients infected with the SARS virus, the disease had profound economic and political repercussions in many of the affected regions. Recent reports of isolated new SARS cases and a fear that the disease could reemerge and spread have put public health officials on high alert for any indications of possible new outbreaks. This report examines the response to SARS by public health systems in individual countries, the biology of the SARS coronavirus and related coronaviruses in animals, the economic and political fallout of the SARS epidemic, quarantine law and other public health measures that apply to combating infectious diseases, and the role of international organizations and scientific cooperation in halting the spread of SARS. The report provides an illuminating survey of findings from the epidemic, along with an assessment of what might be needed in order to contain any future outbreaks of SARS or other emerging infections.

Argentina

Argentina
Author: Ms.Ana Corbacho
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2003-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451851308

Using urban household surveys, we constructed a panel dataset to study the effects of the Argentine macroeconomic crisis of 1999-2002 with the aim of (1) identifying the most vulnerable households, (2) investigating whether employment in the public sector and government spending served to decrease vulnerability, and (3) understanding the mechanisms used by households to smooth the effects of the crisis. Households whose heads were male, less educated, and employed in the construction sector were more vulnerable to the crisis, experiencing larger-than-average declines in income and higher dispersion. Households whose heads were employed in the public sector were more protected from the crisis, although higher public spending did not serve to decrease their vulnerability. A significant source of vulnerability was linked to changes in employment status, and we studied the determinants of the probability of being unemployed and of becoming unemployed. Last, we found that households were unable to perfectly smooth income shocks. Given these results, there is room for broadening social safety nets, particularly in the form of public works programs.

Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability

Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability
Author: Victor C. Shih
Publisher:
Total Pages: 271
Release: 2020
Genre: Authoritarianism
ISBN: 0472037676

"Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability hones in on the economic challenges facing authoritarian regimes through a set of comparative case studies, which include Iran, Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, the Eastern bloc countries, China, and Taiwan, authored by the top experts in these countries. Through these comparative case studies, this volume provides readers with the analytical tools for assessing whether the current round of economic shocks will lead to political instability or even regime change among the world's autocracies. This volume identifies the duration of economic shocks, the regime's control over the financial system, and the strength of the ruling party as key variables to explain whether authoritarian regimes would maintain the status quo, adjust their support coalitions, or fall from power after economic shocks"--

Riding Global Financial Waves

Riding Global Financial Waves
Author: Gustavo Adler
Publisher:
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2012
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN:

"Over the past two decades, most emerging market economies witnessed two key developments. A marked process of financial integration with the rest of the world, arguably turning these economies more vulnerable to global financial shocks; and an improvement of macroeconomic fundamentals, helping to increase their resiliency to these shocks. Against a backdrop of these opposing forces, are these economies more vulnerable to global financial shocks today than in the past? Have better fundamentals offset increasing financial integration? If so, what fundamentals matter most? We address these questions by examining the role of these two forces over the past two decades in amplifying or buffering the economic impact of these shocks. Our findings show that EMEs, with the exception of Emerging Europe, have become less vulnerable. Exchange rate flexibility and external sustainability are key determinants of the impact of these shocks, while the extent to which deeper financial integration is a source of vulnerability depends on the exchange rate regime."--- Abstract.

Measuring Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Measuring Vulnerability in Developing Countries
Author: Wim Naude
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 179
Release: 2014-10-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317984501

In all of the major challenges facing the world currently, whether it be climate change, terrorism and conflict, or urbanization and demographic change, no progress is possible without the alleviation of poverty. New approaches in development economics have in recent years started from the premise that we cannot successfully deal with poverty unless we also deal with vulnerability—but not only vulnerability to income poverty but also vulnerability to various others hazards—such as climate, conflict, macroeconomic shocks and natural disasters. This book provide insights into new approaches in conceptualising and measuring vulnerability. It includes chapters dealing with advanced issues such as the compilation of economic vulnerability indices (EVIs) on a macro-level, of conceptualizing and measuring local vulnerability across regions in a country, and of measuring the flip-side of vulnerability, namely resilience. The book also explores the sensitivities of the various measurements of vulnerability to vulnerability lines, poverty lines, and permanent income, with consideration to some of the most vulnerable groups in developing countries. Overall, the contributions in the book consolidate new approaches as far as the concept and measurement of vulnerability on different levels and outcomes are concerned, and note directions for future research. This book was published as a special issue of Oxford Development Studies.

Economic Shocks and Financial Vulnerability

Economic Shocks and Financial Vulnerability
Author: Xuesong You
Publisher:
Total Pages: 119
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

This three-chapter dissertation explores firms' responses to financial shocks in three settings: severe climate events, market crash, and unexpected loss shocks. The first chapter examines how severe climate events affect small business financing outcomes and how they use credit to finance losses, using Hurricane Harvey as my setting. By using the credit reports data of 8,219 small businesses in the Harvey affected area, I estimate a treatment intensity difference-in-differences model where flooding at a firm's location is the measure of treatment. I find that Harvey-related flooding increased credit delinquencies, especially short-term delinquencies approximately one year after Hurricane Harvey. Delinquencies also increased among firms in the disaster area whose properties were not flooded, suggesting spillover effects from flooded areas. I also find that firms without existing debt took on debt following Harvey. Firms with existing debt lowered loan balances while applying for new credit. The second chapter considers the funding challenges facing multiemployer defined benefit pension plans. I first explore whether the current funding rules have unintended consequences -- triggering employer withdrawals. The Pension Protection Act of 2006 requires that a multiemployer pension plan with an actuarial funded percentage of less than 80% must take corrective actions to improve financial health. In this paper, a regression discontinuity design is used to establish the causal effect of funding rule requirements on employer withdrawals from multiemployer pension plans. I find that multiemployer pension plans subject to funding rule requirements are about 14 percentage points more likely to experience employer withdrawals. Next, I investigate whether employer withdrawals exacerbate the funding challenges of multiemployer pension plans. Using an event study methodology, I find that plans with ex-ante employer withdrawal experiences are more vulnerable to financial shocks such as the 2008 financial crisis. This study provides important policy implications for regulators concerning best practices to build pension plan resilience to insolvency events. The third chapter investigates how rivals' loss shocks affect a firm's pricing decisions. I develop a simple theoretical model and predict that a firm's relative financial position matters. Unaffected firms may benefit from rivals' loss shocks by charging a higher price. I empirically examine the relationship in the setting of the U.S. property/casualty insurance industry. I find that insurers who only write personal lines outperform their adversely affected rivals and charge a higher price following rivals' commercial-line loss shocks. The competitive effects of loss shocks are more pronounced in states where rate regulation is not stringent.